近50年新疆日照时数时空变化分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201311004

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用新疆101 个气象站1961-2010 年的逐月日照时数、总云量和低云量资料，使用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall 检测以及基于ArcGIS 的混合插值法对春、夏、秋、冬四季和年日照时数的变化趋势、突变特征以及日照时数多年平均值和突变前后变化量的空间分布及其与云量的关系进行了分析，结果表明：（1）新疆春季日照时数总体呈现“从东北向西南递减”的空间分布特点；夏季为“北疆多，南疆少，东部多、西部少，平原和盆地多，山区少”的格局；秋季呈现“由东南向西北递减”的分布格局；冬季具有“东部多，西部少”的特点。新疆各地年日照时数2450~3450 h，其空间分布总体呈现“东部多，西部少；平原和盆地多，山区少”的格局。（2）1961-2010 年，除春季日照时数呈不显著的略增趋势外，新疆夏季、秋季、冬季和年日照时数分别以-4.27 h·（10a）^-1、-4.30 h·（10a）^-1、-14.36 h·（10a）^-1和-19.42 h·（10a）^-1的倾向率呈显著的减少趋势。并且，夏季、秋季、冬季和年日照时数分别于1988 年、1986 年、1987 年和1982 年发生了突变。突变年前后，全疆各地日照时数的变化具有明显的区域性差异，以年日照时数为例，1982 年后较其之前，除吐鲁番、哈密盆地，塔里木盆地南缘等少部分区域年日照时数有所增多外，全疆大部为减少的态势。（3）云量是影响新疆日照时数的主要因素，总体来说，新疆总云量和低云量较少的区域日照时数相对较多；反之，亦然。近50a，新疆总云量变化不明显，但低云量明显增多，这是导致日照时数减少的主要成因。

关键词: 日照时数, 时空变化, 新疆, ArcGIS

Abstract: Based on the monthly sunshine duration, total cloud cover and low cloud cover data during 1961-2010 from 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang, the spatial-temporal change characteristics of seasonal and annual sunshine duration, and the connection between annual sunshine duration with total cloud cover and low cloud cover were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, three-dimensional quadratic trend surface simulation and Kriging residual error revision based on GIS. The main results are obtained as follows. (1) There was an obvious regional difference in climatic distribution of seasonal and annual sunshine duration, generally, the sunshine duration of spring increased from the southwest to northeast. In summer, the sunshine duration was longer in the northern and eastern parts than in the southern and western parts, and it was longer in plain and valley than in mountainous areas. Autumn sunshine duration increased southeast to northwest, and in winter it increased from west to east in Xinjiang. Affected by their joint effect, the annual sunshine duration increased from west to east, mountainous areas to plain and valley in Xinjiang. (2) The changing trend of spring sunshine duration was not significant, but that of the summer, autumn, winter and annual sunshine duration showed a significant decreasing trend with the rate of -4.27 h·(10a)^-1, -4.30 h·(10a)^-1, -14.36 h·(10a)^-1 and -19.42 h·(10a)^-1 respectively in recent 50 years, and summer, autumn, winter and annual values had mutations in 1988, 1986, 1987 and 1982, respectively, but there were regional differences before and after mutations. For example, the annual sunshine duration increased in Turpan-Hami Basin and southern Tarim Basin, while it showed a decreasing trend in most parts of Xinjiang, especially in Junggar Basin, areas along the Tianshan Mountains, central and eastern parts of Tarim Basin. (3) The cloud cover was the main factor influencing sunshine duration in Xinjiang. On the whole, the areas with less total and low cloud cover have relatively much sunshine duration, and vice versa. In recent 50 years, the total amount of cloud did not change significantly, but low cloud cover increased significantly, which was the main cause for the decrease of sunshine duration in Xinjiang.

Key words: sunshine duration, ArcGIS, spatial-temporal change, Xinjiang

张山清, 普宗朝, 李景林. 近50年新疆日照时数时空变化分析[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(11): 1481-1492.

ZHANG Shanqing, PU Zongchao, LI Jinglin. The spatial-temporal variation of sunshine duration in Xinjiang during 1961-2010[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(11): 1481-1492.

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