• 气候变化 •

### 近50年山西终霜冻的时空分布及其影响因素

1. 1. 山西省气象服务中心, 太原030002;
2. 山西省气象决策服务中心, 太原030006;
3. 山西省气候中心, 太原030006;
4. 太原市气象局, 太原030002
• 收稿日期:2013-05-05 修回日期:2013-07-07 出版日期:2013-11-20 发布日期:2013-11-20
• 作者简介:李芬（1964-），女，山西汾阳人，硕士，高级工程师，主要从事区域气候变化及生态与农业气象研究。E-mail：lifen1964@sina.com
• 基金资助:
国家973 计划项目（2012CB955903）；中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目（CMAGJ2011M10）；山西省自然科学基金（2013011038）

### Spatial and temporal distribution and its impact factors of the last frost over Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2010

LI Fen1, ZHANG Jianxin2, WU Yongli3, ZHOU Jinhong4, CHENG Yanfang4

1. 1. Shanxi Meteorological Service Center, Taiyuan 030002, China;
2. Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision-making, Taiyuan 030006, China;
3. Shanxi Climate Center, Taiyuan 030006, China;
4. Taiyuan Municipal Meteorological Bureau, Taiyuan 030002, China
• Received:2013-05-05 Revised:2013-07-07 Online:2013-11-20 Published:2013-11-20
• Supported by:
National 973 Project, No.2012CB955903; The meteorological key technology integration and application projects of China Meteorological Administration, No.CMAGJ2011M10; Natural Science Fund of Shanxi Province, No.2013011038

Abstract: Based on each day's minimum ground temperature data of 62 meteorological stations in Shanxi from 1961 to 2010, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the province's last frost dates are analyzed. The results show: (1) Shanxi's average last frost date is April 12, the last frost date of the southern part is generally earlier than that of the north, but for a particular site, "early" or "late" of the last frost date also depends on its topography and location. The average last frost date has obvious positive correlations with altitude and latitude, and the correlation with altitude is closer than that with latitude. (2) M-K mutation test shows that the last frost date of most meteorological stations had obvious mutations from 1975 to 1996, and that the mutation year has negative correlations with altitude and latitude, and that the correlation with latitude is closer than that with altitude. (3) The changing trend of last frost dates has apparent regional difference, the large advancing scope region is located in the central-western and southern parts, while the large delaying scope region is observed in the northwestern and central-eastern parts. The changing trend has negative correlations with altitude and latitude, and the correlation with altitude is closer than that with latitude. (4) Probability of the normal last frost in this province is 54%-74%, and the maximum probability appears in the southeastern and northern-central parts. Probability of the later last frost in Shanxi is 2%-22%, and the maximum probability appears in the northern and southeastern parts of the province. Probability of the latest last frost in Shanxi is 14%-36%, and the larger probability area is located in the northern-central and central-western parts. (5) Altitude has negative correlation with later last frost probability, and latitude has positive correlation with the latest last frost probability, and there is little correlation between altitude (or latitude) and normal last frost probability. Latitude has greater impacts on all degrees' last frost probability than altitude.