Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
DAI Yuping, WANG Puyu, ZHANG Zhengyong, LIU Lin, LI Hongliang, YU Fengchen, CHEN Puchen, WANG Fanglong
Glaciers provide indispensable resources and services for ecological environment, human well-being and social and economic development in arid areas. Quantitative evaluation of ecological service value of glaciers is an important basis for rational utilization and protection of glacier resources and regional sustainable development. Based on Landsat remote sensing image data, meteorological data, and relevant socio-economic data, this study constructed a glacier service value assessment system to quantitatively evaluate the glacier service value of the Chinese Altai Mountains from 2000 to 2020. Utilizing the climate models from the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), it explored the changes in glacier service value under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) from 2020 to 2100.The main conclusions were as follows: (1) In 2020, the glacier service value of the Chinese Altai Mountains was 3.623 billion yuan, with climate regulation being the most significant service of the glaciers in the area, followed by runoff regulation and freshwater supply, accounting for 88.06%, 8.70%, and 2.44% of the total service value, respectively. (2) From 2000 to 2020, the glacier service value of the Chinese Altai Mountains showed a decreasing trend, with a total decrease of 4.195 billion yuan, and a service value change rate of -53.66%. The glacier service value in each basin and county was also in a state of reduction. (3) Under the three scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, the glacier service value shows a downward trend after 2030. By 2100, the glacier service values under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios will decrease to 1.199 billion, 1.007 billion, and 652 million yuan, respectively, with cumulative glacial service value losses of 2.423 billion, 2.616 billion, and 2.971 billion yuan, respectively. The study reveals the impact of climate change on the glacier service value, providing important reference for the protection and sustainable development of glaciers in the Chinese Altai Mountains.