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  • Environmental Change and Agricultural Development
    CHEN Xiao, SUN Tao, SUN Ranhao
    Acta Geographica Sinica. 2025, 80(5): 1339-1352. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202505012

    The outdoor thermal environment impacts human heat exchange, subsequently affecting public health, travel decisions, labor production, and landscape design. However, there are still lacking large-scale and long time-series studies. Based on the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), Sen's slope estimation, and Mann-Kendall (MK) significance test, we analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of UTCI in China from 1981 to 2019 and reveal the heat risk of typical urban agglomerations. The results show that the widespread growth trend of UTCI exists across China, with the highest intensity occurring in spring and the second highest in summer, while the trend is not significant in most areas in autumn and winter. UTCI trend intensity was higher during daytime in spring while nighttime in summer, and overall growth tended to be more pronounced in the north than in the south. High-growth areas are predominantly located in the northwest region, plateau and basin, exceeding 0.6 °C/10a. Urban agglomerations exhibit the highest UTCI growth trend in spring, generally exceeding 0.3 °C/10a, proving the "warm spring" exists. The days of different cold stress levels generally decrease while heat stress days increase thereby subjecting residents to greater levels of heat stress. The frequency of heat stress was only 24.2% in China, and generally exceeded 60% in urban areas, which would increase residents' heat exposure risk as the thermal environment shifts from comfortable to uncomfortable. This study further helps to understand the spatiotemporal patterns of thermal environment variations and provides fundamental insights for regional management, prevention, and control in the context of climate change.

  • Environmental Change and Agricultural Development
    ZHANG Hang, GUO Yuchen, ZHANG Hongjuan, GAO Wenkai, LI Yurui, DONG Guanpeng
    Acta Geographica Sinica. 2025, 80(5): 1353-1369. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202505013

    Since the 1950s, the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of extreme heat events have increased significantly. Beyond the broader economic consequences of global warming, extreme heat imposes independent and substantial influences on economic growth. Neglecting its effects could lead to substantial underestimations of climate-driven economic losses and regional disparities. The Yellow River Basin (YRB), a crucial ecological security barrier and key pilot region for high-quality development, is home to predominantly energy- and labor-intensive industries that are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat. Understanding the historical impacts of extreme heat on economic growth is essential for assessing the region's climate resilience and formulating adaptation strategies. To address this, this study constructed a county-level GDP dataset for the YRB spanning 30 years (1992-2021) by integrating nighttime light data and machine learning techniques. Extreme heat, average temperature, and temperature variability were systematically incorporated into a climate econometric model to analyze the nonlinear and persistent effects of extreme heat on economic growth. Additionally, projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) further enable the quantification of economic losses attributable to anthropogenic extreme heat. The key findings reveal that: (1) As a county's annual average temperature rises, the marginal effect of extreme heat shifts from being statistically insignificant to significantly negative, with an inflection point at 6.7 ℃. Counties experiencing significant economic losses due to extreme heat constitute approximately 94.9% of the YRB. (2) The marginal effect of extreme heat tends to accumulate and intensify within the first three years' post-event, may rebound in the fourth year, and typically dissipate by the fifth year. However, when a county's annual average temperature exceeds 11.1 ℃, extreme heat can cause permanent damage to economic growth. (3) Economic losses attributed to anthropogenic extreme heat totaled approximately 2 billion yuan in 2010 but surged to around 142 billion yuan by 2020, representing about 1.8% of that year's GDP:A nearly 70-fold increase. The cumulative economic loss from 1998 to 2020 amounted to approximately 566 billion yuan.

  • Environmental Change and Agricultural Development
    YANG Jun, XIN Jiaxing, REN Jiayi, YU Wenbo
    Acta Geographica Sinica. 2025, 80(5): 1370-1385. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202505014

    An in-depth investigation of urban heat island effect and its influencing factors differences is crucial for effectively mitigating this phenomenon in cities. In this study, we calculated the surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) for China's super- and mega-cities, based on Landsat 8 land surface temperature and Local Climate Zones (LCZs) data. We then analyzed the compound effects of LCZs and population density (PD) on SUHII using geodetector. The results showed that: (1) Urban size, development level, and building density all exacerbate SUHII, with internal variation significantly higher in mountainous and hilly regions than in plains. The standard deviation of SUHII in mountainous and hilly areas exceeds 0.25, while in plain areas, such as Shenyang, it is around 0.1. (2) In most cities, the lowest SUHII is found in dense trees (LCZA), which is approximately 0.5-1 ℃ lower than in built-up LCZs. (3) The compound effect of PD and LCZs is more significant than either factor alone. Once the ratio of built-up LCZs to nature LCZs exceeds 0.60, the contribution of LCZs to SUHII shows a decelerating growth rate, and becomes saturated when LCZs account for approximately 50% of the built-up area. Looking ahead, the intensity of urban heat islands is expected to continue increasing. This study discussed deeply the influencing factors of the differences in urban heat island intensity, offering an important reference for the development of targeted urban planning strategies aimed at mitigating urban heat island effects.

  • Environmental Change and Agricultural Development
    GAO Jing, ZHU Jintao, LI Yurui, GONG Yanling, SHEN Mei
    Acta Geographica Sinica. 2025, 80(5): 1386-1404. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb20250515

    Cultivating new quality agricultural productive forces (NQAPFs) is an intrinsic requirement for promoting the construction of a strong agricultural country. It is of great practical significance to explain the scientific connotation of NQAPFs in China, analyze their spatial and temporal characteristics, and examine their impact on strengthening China's agriculture. This paper constructs an index system for measuring NQAPFs from four dimensions: agricultural science and technology, labor factors, industrial upgrading and agroecology, based on panel data from 30 provincial-level areas in China from 2012 to 2022. The Theil index, Markov chain and double machine learning methods are used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of NQAPFs, identify lagging regions, and empirically test the impact of NQAPFs on agricultural labor productivity and farmers' income. The research found that: China's NQAPFs increased steadily, with industrial upgrading contributing the most and the contributions of the labor factor and agroecology relatively weak; the current development presents a pattern of "high in the east and low in the west", with the eastern region>northeast region>central region>western region, and regional development is unbalanced. However, the NQAPFs converged towards higher levels, and the distribution dynamics are internally stable. Except for the northeast region, there is a converging trend of rapid growth in low-value areas in the eastern, central and western regions of the country. Econometric analysis shows that NQAPFs have significant positive impact on both agricultural labor productivity and farmers' income; 17 provincial-level areas with weak NQAPFs have been identified, mainly in the western and northeast regions. In the future, the focus of efforts to improve China's NQAPFs should be on increasing investment in agricultural science and technology, continuing to promote industrial upgrading, improving the quality of the workforce, strengthening the protection of agricultural ecosystems, and accelerating the improvement of the comprehensive development level of NQAPFs in central and western China.

  • Environmental Change and Agricultural Development
    LIU Yongqiang, WANG Shuang, YAN Jinlong, ZHANG Yingnan, DAI Lin
    Acta Geographica Sinica. 2025, 80(5): 1405-1422. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202505016

    Driven by the strategy of rural vitalization, the land, as an important carrier of economic and social development, has gone or will go through different transition processes. However, as an expansion of the land use transition study in rural areas, there is insufficient research on the connotation and mechanisms of village land transition. This study takes Tengtou village, a well-developed village in the coastal areas of southeast China, as the study area, to comb the dominant and recessive transition of typical village land use types at different development stages of the rural industries. Then it attempts to reveal the dynamic mechanism of land use transition by using land use and field research data. The results show that: (1) The essence of village land transition is to achieve a dual transition of dominant and recessive land use morphologies through various means, such as land consolidation and transfer. The goal is to activate both the material and non-material production factors in rural areas, reconstruct rural socio-economic forms, and optimize the regional spatial patterns. Finally, we achieve the internal structural optimization, functional enhancement, and coordination of urban and rural regional systems. (2) In terms of the dominant morphology transition, the area of Tengtou's rural housing land has increased, while the agricultural land and collective operating construction land have shown a decreasing trend. The four generations of rural housing land exhibit a "scattered-striped-radial" layout in space, while the collective operating construction land presents a block layout. In terms of the recessive morphology transition, the management of agricultural land and collective operating construction land is gradually shifting towards a combination of village collective organization and corporate oriented management. The property rights of rural housing land is shifting from the separation of two rights to the separation of three rights, which is accompanied by the shift from a single residential function to a mixed multiple function, such as social security, property appreciation, and public services. (3) The expansion of the rural industrial scale, optimization of industrial structure, and improvement of production efficiency are the core drivers promoting the village land use transitions constantly. The aim is to meet the changing needs of rural industrial development for land resources. By coordinating the industrial upgrading and land use demand, Tengtou's rural industries have repeatedly achieved the goal of "vacating the cage for new birds". The study may provide theoretical support and practical reference for China's rural vitalization driven by industrial development.