Vegetation Ecology and Grain Security
CHEN Feng, WANG Shijie, ZHAO Xiaoen, CHEN Youping, HU Mao, XU Yang, TANG Wenhui, ZHANG Heli, CHEN Qiaomei, YUE Weipeng, HOU Tiyuan, CAO Honghua, LIU Yuxin, SHEN Zhuolan, WU Xinfeng, WEI Jiachang, WANG Hechuan
Continuous global warming has been affecting the structure and function of forest ecosystems, and forest productivity is strongly restricted by large-scale extreme drought and shows significant spatial heterogeneity. Patterns of changes in radial growth dynamics of coniferous species and responses to climatic factors since the beginning of the 20th century were identified by examining growth trends and assessing climatic drivers based on the tree-ring data from the 257 sampling sites in arid and semi-arid areas of northern China. The running average results indicated that radial growth of coniferous species in Xinjiang and northwest China showed a continuous increase, and radial growth of coniferous species showed a fluctuating increase in northern China, and a decline in northeast China was detected after the mid-20th century. Moisture has a positive effect on radial growth of coniferous species in all regions, and increased evapotranspiration induced by warmer temperatures will inhibit radial growth to some extent. The effect of growing season changes on radial growth in northwest China benefits from the thermal effects of warming and humidification phenomena. Climatological analyses showed that atmospheric circulation factors have some vital influences on regional precipitation generated by the Asian monsoon system by regulating global SST and baroclinic intensity changes on interannual to interdecadal scales, and potentially affecting radial growth of coniferous species in arid and semi-arid areas of northern China. CMIP5 data and VS-Lite modeling revealed impacts under future climate change scenarios, the extended growing season due to global warming promotes regional radial growth of coniferous species, and however, drought stress due to less precipitation still have some limiting effects on radial growth, especially in western China.