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  • Geopolitical Relations and Human Settlements Environment
    FU Ningning, GE Yuejing, LI Yanzheng, HUANG Yu, HU Wei, NIU Fuchang, SONG Zhiyuan, LIU Yuli
    Acta Geographica Sinica. 2024, 79(8): 2097-2114. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202408012

    In the post-Cold War era, the global landscape has evolved towards multipolarity, and the geostrategic behavior of states has gradually shifted away from the traditional binary model of "balancing-bandwagoning" to a more flexible and diverse one called hedging strategy, and it is the current strategy that the countries surrounding the South China Sea have adopted in response to China's actions. By introducing the hedging theory of international relations, we seek to understand, from a geopolitical perspective, how these geopolitical entities employ hedging strategies. First, an analytical framework is constructed to theorize hedging strategy, consisting of driving factors, mediating factors, and strategic choices. Second, the hedging intensity is assessed quantitatively via the geopolitical risk and the relative power index of the countries surrounding the South China Sea. The evolution of it is presented through a bivariate visualization method, and the various hedging patterns are classified by utilizing the quadrant diagram. Finally, both the theoretical framework and quantitative outcomes are validated by analyzing the strategic practices of the study region. We conclude that: (1) the geopolitical risks of the countries surrounding the South China Sea have been "tending to be stable but difficult to achieve" since the beginning of the 21st century, with significant heterogeneity among these countries. The evolution of state relative power exhibits a fluctuating trend, closely linked to U.S. intervention. (2) The hedging intensity of the countries surrounding the South China Sea results from the interaction between geopolitical risk and state relative power, leading to three distinct forms, represented by Vietnam and the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia and Brunei, respectively. (3) The intrinsic logic of the hedging strategies of these countries can be seen as a strategic cognition shaped by their threat awareness and national strategic orientation. This cognition then orientates diverse hedging approaches that guide these countries in applying either cooperative or competitive tools. By understanding the intensity and nature of the strategic hedging by the countries surrounding the South China Sea, we aim to provide a unique vantage point for China's regional governance in the South China Sea.

  • Geopolitical Relations and Human Settlements Environment
    TIAN Shenzhen, ZHANG Yue, LI Xueming, YANG Jun, LI Hang, CONG Xueping, SUN Huiying
    Acta Geographica Sinica. 2024, 79(8): 2115-2140. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202408013

    Human settlements geography leverages the comprehensive strengths of geography that are recognized both in China and internationally. Therefore, human settlements geography represents the mature evolution of the discipline of geography through interdisciplinary integration. Human settlements geography directly responds to the public's aspirations for superior human settlements and fulfills critical national priorities. Compared to urban, economic, and behavioral geography, human settlements geography's theoretical frameworks, practical applications, and integrative development remain under-explored. To advance this field, delineating its theoretical underpinnings across the following five key dimensions is essential: foundational theories, theoretical frameworks, geographical scales, research paradigms, and thematic narratives. Central to the discipline is the exploration of human-settlements relationships, which are approached through both "three dimensions" and "three elements" perspectives. By capitalizing on the unique interplay of "three states", the discipline advocates for an open integration model, proposing a novel pathway for human settlements geography, which is poised to navigate three pivotal avenues: engaging with new scientific inquiries, adopting innovative data and methodologies, and embracing progressive development concepts. This strategy aims to transition human settlements geography from a specialized intersection of interdisciplinary study to a more encompassing and influential field, marking its significance as a major branch of geography and a substantial discipline. The synthesis of theoretical depth, practical relevance, collaborative integration, and strategic development in human settlements geography seeks to catalyze cross-disciplinary synergy and paradigmatic shifts. It aims to meet residents' diverse needs, support evidence-based national development policies, and enhance China's role and authority in shaping global human settlement policies, highlighting the country's dedication to fostering sustainable and habitable human settlements.

  • Geopolitical Relations and Human Settlements Environment
    ZHANG Yanji, ZHU Chunwu
    Acta Geographica Sinica. 2024, 79(8): 2141-2156. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202408014

    The nonlinear relationship and spatially heterogeneous relationship between environmental factors and criminal activities are the main reasons for both the theoretical and empirical divergence, but the relevant analysis remains fragmented and faces limitations such as linear relationship hypothesis, collinearity problems and omitted variable bias. This study uses Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) algorithm and Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) interpreter in machine learning to systematically reveal the nonlinear and spatially heterogeneous relationships between 48 built and social environmental factors on violent crime in Beijing. Our research has revealed the existence of seven distinct types of nonlinear relationships between environmental factors and violent crime, each exhibiting unique trends in the direction of influence and marginal effects. Furthermore, we have found that the association between environmental factors and violent crime exhibits varying degrees of spatial heterogeneity. By utilizing K-means clustering analysis, the entire area can be segmented into six distinct regions, each characterized by different critical criminogenic factors. These findings suggest that the applicability of crime geography theories, such as the classification of crime generators, attractors, and inhibitors based on crime pattern theory, the validity of street eye theory and defensible space theory, and the impact of social attributes as proposed by social disorganization theory, may depend on the value range of environmental factors and differ across locations. In light of these findings, it is recommended that crime prevention strategies shift from universal to targeted approaches, wherein public resources are allocated to specific value ranges of environmental variables and prioritized regions.