Climate Change and Cryosphere Culture Service
LIU Haolong, ZHOU Yu, LIU Jun, DAI Junhu, GE Quansheng, QI Xiaobo
The ice sports in Beihai Park are one of the main elements of physical culture heritage and the representative leisure symbol during winter in Beijing. Enhancing the research on impacts of global climate change and appropriate adaptation is of great importance to its responses to the challenge of global climate change and practices of vigorously developing ice-snow economy. We extracted and analyzed the opening and closing information of the park rink over the past decades from document archives. Then, on the basis of temperature observational data and four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) data, we compared the prediction effects of different temperature parameters and fitting equations by using the leave-one-out cross validation, analyzed the projected changes in ice-sports phenology characteristics from 2021 to 2099 and their potential impacts on the tourists, and recommended the following countermeasures for the tourism to deal with climate change risks. The conclusions show that: (1) The beginning date, final date and duration of ice-sports season in the park during the past 30 years, whose mean values were January 1, February 5, and 36 days, respectively, had the corresponding insignificant trends of 1.00 d/10a, -0.77 d/10a, and 1.11 d/10a. The years of variations in ice-sports season can be divided into three periods of 1989-2000, 2001-2013 and 2014-2018. (2) The beginning and final dates of ice-sports season respond sensitively to 59-day daily minimum temperature before the former and 94-day daily maximum temperature before the latter, respectively. Furthermore, the two phenological dates can be predicted well by using Boltzmann function fitting and these two temperature parameters. (3) The estimated average beginning date, final date, and duration of the ice-sports season in 2021-2099 will be one day later, one day earlier, and two days shorter than those in the last 30 years, respectively. The variation amplitudes of these three dates will decrease, while their trends will be significant. (4) In the future 79 years, the climatic suitability for ice sports during the New Year's Day vocation will be better than that in the Spring Festival. Under four climate change scenarios, climatic suitability for ice sports in the Spring Festival will be not different greatly, while the climatic suitability in the other festivals will be much different. (5) Differences of the ice-sports-season predictions on the basis of three regional climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM-5, and UKESM) are very limited, while the impact of the heat island effect is unclear. (6) In order to better adapt to tourists' potential changes in destination, travel time, and activity types under global warming, rink operators should strengthen safety management, develop new tourism products, and purchase ice insurance. In addition, researchers should focus more on the complexity of climate change impacts and improve the prediction effect of tourism flows; the departments concerned should vigorously promote the compilation of risk-management reports and pay great attention to the dynamic assessment of climate change risks.