Surface Process and Planet Research
XUE Fan, ZHANG Xiaoping, ZHANG Lu, LIU Baoyuan, YANG Qinke, YI Haijie, HE Liang, ZOU Yadong, HE Jie, XU Xiaoming, LYU Du
Global climate change and human activities have profoundly affected regional hydrological processes. Attribution recognition of streamflow and sediment change is particularly important to understand the theory and practice of ecological protection and for high-quality development of watersheds. Based on the Budyko hypothesis and fractal theory, we used the elastic coefficient method to analyze the attribution of streamflow and sediment changes in the upper (typical hilly and valley region), middle (earth-rock mountain forest region and tableland region), and lower (Weibei loess tableland agricultural region) portions of the Beiluo River Basin from the 1960s to the 2010s. Results showed that runoff depth in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of Beiluo River decreased significantly from 35, 32, and 34 mm in the 1960s to 19, 24, and 6 mm in the 2010s, with a decrease rate of 0.3, 0.2, and 0.4 mm/a, respectively. The upstream sediment transport decreased significantly, while the sediment transport of the middle reaches decreased insignificantly; the downstream sediment transport also decreased significantly from 99, 8, and 3 million tons in the 1960s to 10, 3, and 0.3 million tons in the 2010s, with decreasing rates of 1.5, 0.04, and 0.1 million t/a, respectively in the 60 years. In contrast to the 1960s, the runoff change in the upstream region has been gradually affected by human activities since the 1970s, and its degree has gradually increased as the contribution rate of human activities in the 2010s reached 66.3%. Runoff variation in the middle reaches was mainly determined by climate change, with the contribution rates of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration being 77.0% and 20.2%, respectively. The decrease of runoff in the downstream region was mainly affected by human activities, and the contribution rate was as high as 64.3% in the 2010s. In contrast to the 1960s, the change of sediment yield in the basin was always dominated by human activities, and the contribution rates of human activities to the reduction of sediment discharge in the upper, middle, and lower reaches in the 2010s were 80.7%, 59.2%, and 92.7%, respectively. Measures such as returning farmland to forests on slope and engineering practices in valley contributed 39.0% and 42.7%, respectively, of the reduction in sediment transport in the upstream region. The estimation results of the contribution of human activities in the middle and lower reaches reflect the response of regional runoff and sediment transport in high vegetation cover areas and in irrigated agricultural areas.