Industry and Regional Development
CHEN Wei, ZHAO Xiquan, LIU Weidong, WUZHATI Yeerken
A comprehensive understanding of the connectivity of the Belt and Road trade network and the scientific identification of critical nodes in the Belt and Road trade cooperation are crucial for China to effectively promote the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). From the perspective of network connectivity, this paper proposes the concept of "gateway country", and integrates the frontier methods of network analysis, including Top network, community detection, and gateway coefficient, to examine the evolution of the spatiotemporal patterns of the Belt and Road trade network, analyses the structural changes of trade blocs and identifies trade gateway countries and their functional roles, intending to develop foreign trade and economic cooperation and promote the Belt and Road construction in China. The results show that: (1) The trade volumes of the BRI countries have continued to grow, gradually forming trade network patterns with increasingly close ties, complex structures and significant hierarchical features. (2) The core nodes of the BRI backbone network are prominent, and the polarisation effect is significant, evolving from "relative equilibrium" to "superpower dominant", with China becoming the leading force in the whole trade network. (3) Against the globalisation and regionalisation interaction background, the BRI trade network has formed four to five communities. The community structures exhibit geographical proximity and instability in the number of communities, their scale and membership composition in different years. (4) China, Russia, India, Turkiye, Singapore, Malaysia, Poland, Hungary, Romania, Egypt, Israel, and Lebanon have become gateway countries along the Belt and Road, either as major trading countries or as hub countries with unique geographical locations. As functional nodes and strategic hubs that consolidate and maintain the Belt and Road trading system, the gateway countries play crucial roles in promoting the trade network connectivity and should be a priority strategic choice for China's economic and trade cooperation with the BRI countries.