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Acta Geographica Sinica >

2025 , Vol. 80 >Issue 5: 1386 - 1404

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb20250515

Environmental Change and Agricultural Development

Spatio-temporal pattern of China's new quality agricultural productive forces and their impact on agriculture

  • GAO Jing , 1 ,
  • ZHU Jintao 1 ,
  • LI Yurui , 2, 3 ,
  • GONG Yanling 1 ,
  • SHEN Mei 1
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  • 1. College of Economics and Management, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
  • 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
  • 3. School of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2024-12-12

  Revised date: 2025-04-25

  Online published: 2025-05-23

Supported by

National Social Science Fund of China(21BGL078)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42471232)

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Abstract

Cultivating new quality agricultural productive forces (NQAPFs) is an intrinsic requirement for promoting the construction of a strong agricultural country. It is of great practical significance to explain the scientific connotation of NQAPFs in China, analyze their spatial and temporal characteristics, and examine their impact on strengthening China's agriculture. This paper constructs an index system for measuring NQAPFs from four dimensions: agricultural science and technology, labor factors, industrial upgrading and agroecology, based on panel data from 30 provincial-level areas in China from 2012 to 2022. The Theil index, Markov chain and double machine learning methods are used to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of NQAPFs, identify lagging regions, and empirically test the impact of NQAPFs on agricultural labor productivity and farmers' income. The research found that: China's NQAPFs increased steadily, with industrial upgrading contributing the most and the contributions of the labor factor and agroecology relatively weak; the current development presents a pattern of "high in the east and low in the west", with the eastern region>northeast region>central region>western region, and regional development is unbalanced. However, the NQAPFs converged towards higher levels, and the distribution dynamics are internally stable. Except for the northeast region, there is a converging trend of rapid growth in low-value areas in the eastern, central and western regions of the country. Econometric analysis shows that NQAPFs have significant positive impact on both agricultural labor productivity and farmers' income; 17 provincial-level areas with weak NQAPFs have been identified, mainly in the western and northeast regions. In the future, the focus of efforts to improve China's NQAPFs should be on increasing investment in agricultural science and technology, continuing to promote industrial upgrading, improving the quality of the workforce, strengthening the protection of agricultural ecosystems, and accelerating the improvement of the comprehensive development level of NQAPFs in central and western China.

Key words： new quality agricultural productive forces; spatial pattern; agricultural labor productivity; farmers' income; China

Cite this article

GAO Jing , ZHU Jintao , LI Yurui , GONG Yanling , SHEN Mei . Spatio-temporal pattern of China's new quality agricultural productive forces and their impact on agriculture[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2025 , 80(5) : 1386 -1404 . DOI: 10.11821/dlxb20250515

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