Based on the energy and economy data from 1990 to 2008, this paper develops a model to evaluate China's energy security from both supply and demand perspectives and analyze its spatial-temporal evolution by using factor analysis, ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques and scenario analysis. The results are as follows: 1) National energy security of China shows first a small and then a large inverted "U"-shaped trend during the past 20 years, and is currently at the downward stage of the pattern. 2) The three scenarios for spatial-temporal evolution of regional energy security demonstrate significant differences. Scenario 1 considers only the stability of regional energy supply (α = 1;β = 0). The consequent regional energy security has improved significantly. The evolution of vulnerable regions of energy supply shows an "S” -shaped pattern, and stable regions shows a "Y"-shaped trend. Scenario 2 considers only the security of energy use (α = 0;β = 1). The consequent regional energy security has deteriorated rapidly. The security of regional energy supply and use are roughly in an inverted state. Scenario 3 prioritizes stability of energy supply than security of energy use (α = 0.9;β = 0.1). The consequent spatial distribution pattern of energy security reveals that regional energy security zones of China (sub-strong and strong area) are mainly distributed in the Yellow River Basin, northwestern, southwestern and northeastern parts of China, while vulnerability zones (sub-weak and weak areas) are mainly located in coastal areas.
[1] Anas F Alhajji. What is energy security? Definitions and concepts. [J/OL]. 2008-03 [2011-05-01]. http://www.ogel.org/ article.asp?key=2786.
[2] Willrich M. Energy and World Politics. New York: Free Press, 1975.
[3] Maull H. Raw Materials, Energy and Western Security. London: The Macmillan Press Ltd., 1984: 4.
[4] Deese D A, Nye J S. Energy and Security. Cambridge: Ballinger Pub Co., 1981: 5.
[5] Zhang Lei. Discussion about the energy security of China. China Soft Science, 2001, (4): 7-12. [张雷. 中国能源安全问题探讨. 中国软科学, 2001, (4): 7-12.]
[6] International Energy Agency (IEA). Energy Technology Policy. OECD/IEA, Paris. 1985.
[7] Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC). A quest for energy security in the 21st century-resources and constrains [R/OL], 2006-10-25 [2011-05-16]. http//www.ieej.or.jp/aperc.
[8] Cui Minxuan. China's Energy Development Report 2007. Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press, 2008: 1-2. [崔民选. 中国能源发展报告 (2008). 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2008: 1-2.]
[9] Jansen J C, van Arkel W G, Boots M G. Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security ECN-C-04-007. 2004: 35.
[10] IEA. Energy security and climate change policy interactions: An assesment framework. IEA Information Paper, December 2004. (Blyth & Lefevre)
[11] IEA. Contribution of renewables to energy security. Paris: International Energy Agency, 2007.
[12] Stirling A. Diversity and ignorance in electricity supply investment: Addressing the solution rather than the problem. Energy Policy, 1994, 22(3): 195-216.
[13] Stirling A. On the economics and analysis of diversity. SPRU Electronic Working Paper Series, 1999: 28-30.
[14] Hill M. Diversity and evenness: A unifying notation and its consequences. Ecology, 1973, 54(2): 427-432.
[15] McFalls Michael S. The role and assessment of classical market power in joint venture analysis. Antitrust Law Journal, 1997, 66: 651-735.
[16] Gupta E. Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(3): 1195-1211.
[17] Le Coq C, Paltseva E. Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union. Energy Policy, 2009, 37(11): 4474-4481.
[18] Joint Energy Security of Supply Working Group (JESS). First Report of the DTI-of Gem Joint Energy Security of Supply Working Group [R/OL]. 2002-06 [2011-05-16]. http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/domestic_markets/security_of_supply/jessreport1.pdf.
[19] Joint Energy Security of Supply Working Group (JESS). Second Report of the DTI-Ofgem Joint Energy Security of Supply Working Group [R/OL]. 2003-02 [2011-05-16]. http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file10729.pdf.
[20] Joint Energy Security of Supply Working Group (JESS). Long-term security of energy supply [R/OL]. 2006-12 [2011-05-16]. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file35989.pdf.
[21] Scheepers M, Ad Seebregts, Jacques de Jong et al. EU Standards for Energy Security of Supply [R/OL]. 2007-04-13 [2011-05-16]. http://www.clingendael.nl/publications/2007/20070400_ciep_misc_dejong-maters-et-al_update. pdf.
[22] IEA. Energy security and climate change: Assessing interactions [R/OL]. 2007-03-28 [2011-05-16]. http://www.iea.org/ textbase/nppdf/free/2007/energy_security_climate_policy.pdf.
[23] Helen Cabalu. Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia. Energy Policy, 2010, 38: 218-225.
[24] Kruyt B, van Vuuren D P, de Vries H J M et al. Indicators for energy security. Energy Policy, 2009, 37(6): 2166-2181.
[25] Jiang Wei, Zhang Lei. China energy consumption change and its spatial-temporal effect analysis. Journal of Liaoning Technical University, 2005, 24(4): 612-615. [姜巍, 张雷. 中国能源消费变化过程及其时空效应分析. 辽宁工程技术大学学报, 2005, 24(4): 612-615.]
[26] Zhang Lei, Huang Yuanxi. Time-spatial coordination of energy supply and its effects in west China. Progress in Geography, 2009, 28(3): 321-328. [张雷, 黄园淅. 中国西部地区一次能源供应时空格局变化及其影响. 地理科学进展, 2009, 28(3): 321-328.]
[27] BP. Statistical Review of World Energy. London: British Petroleum (BP), 2009.
[28] Wang Qiang, Zhang Ying, Wu Shidai et al. Mechanism of energy efficiency response to industrial restructuring and energy consumption structure change. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(6): 741-749. [王强, 郑颖, 伍世代等. 能源效 率对产业结构及能源消费结构演变的响应. 地理学报, 2011, 66(6): 741-749.]
[29] Cai Guotian, Zhang Lei. Analysis basic situation of China's energy security. Progress in Geography, 2006, 25(5): 57-66. [蔡国田, 张雷. 中国能源保障基本形式分析. 地理科学进展, 2006, 25(5): 57-66.]
[30] Liu Litao, Shen Lei, Zhang Yan. Regional differences in energy security of China: A case study of Guangdong and Shaanxi provinces. Resources Science, 2011, 33(12): 2386-2393. [刘立涛, 沈镭, 张艳. 中国区域能源安全差异性分析: 以广东与陕西为例. 资源科学, 2011, 33(12): 2386-2393.]
[31] William F Sharpe, Gordon J Alexander, Jeffery V Bailey. Investments. 5th ed. Beijing: China Renmin University Press, 1998: 130-150. [威廉F夏普, 戈登J亚历山大, 杰弗里V贝利. 投资学. 5版. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社, 1998: 130-150.]
[32] Grubb M, Butler L, Sinden G. Diversity and security in UK electricity generation: The influence of low-carbon objectives. Energy Policy, 2006, 34(18): 4050-4062.
[33] Li Liande, WAng Qing, Liu Hao et al. Calculation and analysis of diversity of domestic primary energy supply. Journal of Northeastern University: Natural Science, 2008, 29(4): 577-580. [李连德, 王青, 刘浩等. 中国国内一次能 源供应多样性计算与分析. 东北大学学报: 自然科学版, 2008, 29(4): 577-580.]
[34] IEA. World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights, 2007[R/OL]. 2007-03-28 [2011-05-16]. http://www.iea.org/ w/bookshop/add.aspx?id=319.
[35] Tian Chunrong. China's oil import & export in 2008. International Petroleum Economics, 2009, (3): 31-39. [田春荣. 2008年中国石油进出口状况分析. 国际石油经济, 2009, (3): 31-39.]
[36] Tian Chunrong. China's oil import & export in 2009. International Petroleum Economics, 2010, (3): 4-13. [ 田春荣. 2009年中国石油进出口状况分析. 国际石油经济, 2010, (3): 4-13.]
[37] Spearman C. General intelligence, objectively determined and measured. The American Journal of Psychology, 1904, 15(2): 201-292.
[38] Cai Jianqiong, Yu Huifang, Zhu Zhihong et al. Featured Examples of Statistical Analysis by SPSS. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2006: 336-349. [蔡建琼, 于惠芳, 朱志洪等. SPSS统计分析实例精选. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 2006: 336-349.]
[39] Liang Qiaomei, Wei Yiming, Fan Ying et al. A model for scenario analysis of China's energy requirement and energy intensity and its applications. Chiniese Journal of Management, 2004, 1(1): 62-66. [梁巧梅, 魏一鸣, 范英等. 中国能源需求和能源强度预测的情景分析模型及其应用. 管理学报, 2004, 1(1): 62-66.]
[40] Zeng Zhonglu, Zhang Dongmei. The interpretation method of future in an uncertain environment: Scenario analysis. Journal of Information, 2005, (5): 14-16. [曾忠禄, 张冬梅. 不确定环境下解读未来的方法: 情景分析法. 情报方法, 2005, (5): 14-16.]
