Maize Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Based on EPIC Model: A Case Study of Maize Region in Northern China

  • 1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    2. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of CAS and Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100101, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Regional Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    4. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
    5. National Disaster Reduction Center of China, Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100022, China

Received date: 2011-01-06

  Revised date: 2011-02-20

  Online published: 2011-05-20

Supported by

National Key Technologies R&D Program of China, No.2006BAD20B03


As the global climate change and food security became an increasingly important issue, agriculture drought comes to the focus of attention. China is a typical monsoon climate country as well as an agricultural country with the world's largest population. The East Asian monsoon has had a tremendous impact on agricultural production. Therefore, a maize drought disaster risk assessment, in line with the requirements of sustainable development of agriculture, is important to drought disaster reduction and food security. This study collected information on meteorology, soil, land use and agro-meteorological observation of the research area, and quantitative assessment was done to present spatio-temporal distribution of maize drought in maize region of northern China based on the concept framework of "Hazard-inducing factors assessment (Hazard)-Vulnerability assessment of hazard-affected body (Vulnerability Curve)-Risk assessment (Risk)", importing crop model EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator), and using crop model simulation and digital mapping techniques, from the point of view of whole growth period and sub-growth period. The results showed that in terms of 2-, 5-, 10- and 20-year return periods, the overall maize drought risk decreased gradually from northwest to southeast in the maize planting areas. In the 20-year return period, high risk value regions (maize risk level ≥ 0.5) are concentrated in northern Hebei plateau and central and southern parts of Shandong Province, accounting for 7.63% of the total maize area. The high risk maize growing periods of maize region in northern China were heading - tasseling period, tasseling - milking period and milking - mature period, which should be paid more attention. This paper may provide theoretical basis and technological support for maize drought risk prevention and mitigation of high-risk areas and high-risk periods.

Cite this article

JIA Huicong, WANG Jing'ai, PAN Donghua, CAO Chunxiang . Maize Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Based on EPIC Model: A Case Study of Maize Region in Northern China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011 , 66(5) : 643 -652 . DOI: 10.11821/xb201105007


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