Low-carbon economy has become a worldwide trend. This paper applies a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to conduct research into the impacts of carbon tax policy on regional economic development in China based on a China Interregional Input-Output Table 2002. Simulation results show that different regions endure different impacts when a uniform carbon tax policy is implemented. It exerts negative influences on less developed regions and positive economic influences on coastal areas, which will widen regional economic disparity. Regional differentiated carbon tax policies may alleviate differences of impacts of CO2 emission reduction on regional economy and then help to marrow regional economic gap. Therefore, regional differentiated carbon tax policies, from the viewpoint of efficiency and equality, may be a win-win choice for developing low-carbon economy and promoting harmonious development of regional economy in China.
LI Na, SHI Minjun, YUAN Yongna
. Impacts of Carbon Tax Policy on Regional Development in China: A Dynamic Simulation Based on a Multi-regional CGE Model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010
, 65(12)
: 1569
-1580
.
DOI: 10.11821/xb201012012
[1] Scrimgeoura F, Oxleyb L, Fataia K. Reducing carbon emissions? The relative effectiveness of different types of environmental tax: The case of New Zealand. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2005, 20(11): 1439-1488.
[2] Gurkan Selcuk Kumbaroglu. Environmental taxation and economic effects: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Turkey. Journal of Policy Modeling, 2003, 25(8): 795-810.
[3] Burniaux J M, Nicolett G, Oliveira-Martins J. GREEN: A global model for quantifying the cost of policies to curb CO2 emissions. OECD Economic Studies, 1992, 19: 49-90.
[4] Bollen J, Gielen A, Timmer H. Clubs, ceilings and CDM: Macroeconomics of compliance with the Kyoto Protocol. The Energy Journal, 1999(Special Issue: The Costs of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation).
[5] Zhang Z X. Macroeconomic effects of CO2 emission limits: A computable general equilibrium analysis for China. Journal of Policy Modeling, 1998, 20(2): 213-250.
[6] Garbaccio R F, Ho M S, Jorgenson D W. Controlling carbon emissions in China. Environment and Development Economics, 1999, 4(4): 493-518.
[7] Cao J, Ho M S, Jorgenson D W. China clear skies: The impact of market instruments for environmental policy in China. CCICED Research Report, 2005, Beijing, China.
[8] Liang Q M, Fan Y, Wei Y M. Carbon taxation policy in China: How to protect energy- and trade-intensive sectors? Journal of Policy Modeling, 2007, 29(2): 311-333.
[9] Shi Minjun, Li Na, Zhou Shenglv et al. Can China realize mitigation target toward 2020? Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2010, 1(2): 145-154.
[10] Zheng Yuxin, Fan Mingtai. Chinese CGE Model and Its Analysis on Policies. Beijing: Social Science Academic Press (China), 1999.
[郑玉歆, 樊明太. 中国CGE 模型及政策分析. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 1999.]
[11] He Juhuang, Shen Keting, Xu Songling. Carbon taxation and CGE model of carbon dioxide mitigation. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2002, (10): 39-47.
[贺菊煌, 沈可挺, 徐嵩龄. 碳税与二氧化碳减排的CGE模型. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2002, (10): 39-47.]
[12] Chen Wenying, Gao Pengfei, He Jianfei. Impact of carbon mitigation on China's energy system using China MARKAL-MACRO model. Journal of Tsinghua University: Sciences and Technology, 2004, 44 (3): 342-346.
[陈文颖, 高鹏飞, 何建坤. 用MARKAL-MACRO模型研究碳减排对中国能源系统的影响. 清华大学学报: 自然科学版, 2004, 44 (3): 342-346.]
[13] Jiang Kejun, Hu Xiulian, Zhuang Xing et al. China's energy demand and greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2050. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2008, 5(4): 296-302.
[姜克隽, 胡秀莲, 庄邢等. 中国2050 年的能源需求与CO2 排放情景. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 5(4): 296-302.]
[14] Zhu Yongbin, Wang Zheng, Pang Li et al. Simulation on China’s economy and prediction on energy consumption and carbon emission under optimal growth path. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(8): 935-944.
[朱永彬, 王铮, 庞丽等. 基于经济模拟的中国能源消费与碳排放高峰预测. 地理学报, 2009, 64(8): 935-944.]
[15] Jin Yanming, Lei Ming, Huang Tao. Impacts of environmental tax on different regional economy and environment. Economic Science, 2007, (3): 104-112.
[金艳鸣, 雷明, 黄涛. 环境税收对区域经济环境影响的差异性分析. 经济科学, 2007, (3): 104-112.]
[16] He Jianwu, Li Shantong. Carbon reduction and regional economy. Management Review, 2010, (6): 9-16.
[何建武, 李善同. 二氧化碳减排与区域经济发展. 管理评论, 2010, (6): 9-16.]
[17] Li Na, Shi Minjun, Wang Fei. Roles of regional differences and linkages on Chinese regional policy effect: Based on an eight-region CGE model for China. Systems Engineering: Theory & Practice, 2009, (10): 35-44.
[李娜, 石敏俊, 王飞. 区域差异和区域联系对中国区域政策效果的重要作用: 基于中国八区域CGE模型的研究. 系统工程理论与实践, 2009, (10): 35-44.]
[18] Wu Yajun, Xuan Xiaowei. The Economic Theory of Environmental Tax and Its Application in China. Beijing: Economic Science Press, 2002.
[武亚军, 宣晓伟. 环境税经济理论及对中国的应用分析. 北京: 经济科学出版社, 2002.]
[19] Research Team of Development Research Center of the State Council. Analysis of China's economic growth prospects. Decision and Information, 2005, (8): 4.
[国务院发展研究中心课题组. 中国经济增长的前景分析. 决策与信息, 2005, (8): 4.]
[20] Wei Yiming, Liu Lancui, Fan Ying et al. China Energy Report (2008): CO2 Emission Research. Beijing: Science Press, 2008.
[魏一鸣, 刘兰翠, 范英等. 中国能源报告(2008): 碳排放研究. 北京: 科学出版社, 2008.]