Scenarios simulation land use change in the northern China by system dynamic model
Received date: 2004-01-11
Revised date: 2004-04-21
Online published: 2004-07-25
Supported by
Major State Basic Research Development Program of China, No.G1999043406-03; No.G2000018604
Modeling land use scenarios change and its impact in typical regions are helpful to investigate the interactive mechanism between land use system and terrestrial ecosystem, and optimize land use pattern and reduce potential ecological risk in the process of future land use. A System Dynamic (SD) model aims at modeling land use scenarios change and assessing its ecological impact in the northern China in the next 50 years is developed in this paper. The accuracy assessment with historical data covering 1990 to 2001 indicated the SD model is reliable. After the different "what-if" scenarios controlled by GDP, population, market and technology advancement were built, the different land use scenarios changes in the northern China from 2000 to 2050 were simulated with their ecological impact assessment. The result suggested that such factors as GDP, population, market and technology have good relationship with land use structure change in the northern China. It also indicated that such measures as strictly controlling population growth, importing proper amount of grain from other regions in addition to increasing per unit area grain yield to keep supply-demand balance in the region, and improving agricultural technology are the guarantee to the regional sustainable development with fast economic growth and obvious land use structure improvement at the same time.
Key words: the northern China; land use; scenarios simulation
HE Chunyang, SHI Peijun, LI Jinggang, PAN Yaozhong, CHEN Jin . Scenarios simulation land use change in the northern China by system dynamic model[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004 , 59(4) : 599 -607 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200404014
[1] IIASA. Modeling land use and land cover changes in Europe and Northern Asia. 1998, Research Plan. 14-21.
[2] Costanza R, Ruth M. Using dynamic modeling to scope environmental problems and build consensus. Environmental Management, 1998, 22, 183-195.
[3] Cai Yunlong. A study on land use/cover change: the need for a new integrated approach. Geographical Research, 2001, 20(6): 645-652.
[蔡运龙. 土地利用/土地覆被变化研究: 寻求新的综合途径. 地理研究, 2001, 20(6): 645-652.]
[4] Zhang Xinshi. Ecological Restoration and Sustainable Agricultural Paradigm of Mountain-Oasis-Ecotone-Desert System in the North of the Tianshan Mountains. Acta Botanica Sinica, 2001, 43(12): 1294-1299.
[张新时. 天山北部山地-绿洲-过渡带-荒漠系统的生态建设与可持续农业范式. 植物学报, 2001, 43(12): 1294-1299.]
[5] Leng Shuying, Li Xiubin. New progresses of international study on land quality indicators (LQIs). Acta Geographica Sinica, 1999, 54(2): 177-185.
[冷疏影, 李秀彬. 土地质量指标体系国际研究的新进展. 地理学报, 1999, 54 (2): 177-185.]
[6] Shi Peijun, Song Changqing, Jing Guifei. Strengthening the study of land use/cover change and its impact on eco-environmental security: the trend of the study of the dynamics of human nature system, Netherlands. Advance in Earth Sciences, 2002, 17(2): 161-168.
[史培军, 宋常青, 景贵飞. 加强我国土地利用/覆盖变化及其对生态环境安全影响的研究. 地球科学进展, 2002, 17(2): 161-168.]
[7] Wang Qifan. System Dynamics. Qinghua University Press, 1993.
[王其藩. 系统动力学. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 1993.]
[8] Van D P, Strengers B J, De Vries et al. Long-term perspectives on world metal use: a system dynamics model. Resources Policy, 1999, 25(4): 239-255.
[9] Li L, Simonovic S P. System dynamics model for predicting floods from snowmelt in North American prairie watersheds. Hydrological Processes, 2002, 16(13): 2645-2666.
[10] Zhang Hanxiong. A simulation of the dynamics of soil erosion in the loess hills of Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces. Chinese Science Bulletin, 1997, 42(7): 743-746.
[张汉雄. 晋陕黄土丘陵区土地利用与土壤侵蚀机制仿真研究. 科学通报, 1997, 42(7): 743-746.]
[11] Zhang Hanxiong, Shao Ming'an. A simulation of the dynamics of soil erosion in the loess hills of Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1999, 54(1): 42-50.
[张汉雄, 邵明安. 陕晋黄土丘陵区土壤侵蚀发展动态仿真研究. 地理学报, 1999, 54(1): 42-50.]
[12] Bai Wanqi. Analysis on land use dynamics of Shenzhen. Journal of Natural Resources, 2000, 15(2): 112-116.
[摆万奇. 深圳市土地利用动态趋势分析. 自然资源学报, 2000, 15(2): 112-116.]
[13] Yao Jian, Liu Li, Luo Wenfeng et al. Simulation and Regulation of Sustainable Development in Chengdu City. Journal of Mountain Science, 2000, 18(5): 474-480.
[姚建, 刘莉, 罗文锋 等. 成都市可持续发展模拟与调整. 山地学报, 2000, 18(5): 474-480.]
[14] Wang Liangjian, He Honglin, Peng Buzhuo et al. Study on the system dynamics about the adjustment of the land use structure in the arid zones: a case study of Tulufan City, Xinjiang. Economic Geography, 1997, 17(4): 43-48.
[王良健, 何洪林, 彭补拙 等. 干旱区土地利用结构体调整的SD模型研究. 经济地理, 1997, 17(4): 43-48.]
[15] Li Jinggang, He Chunyang, Shi Peijun et al. Change process of cultivated land and its driving forces in northern China during 1983-2001. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2004, 59(2): 274-282.
[李景刚, 何春阳, 史培军 等. 中国北方13省1983年后的耕地变化与驱动力研究. 地理学报, 2004, 59(2): 274-282.]
[16] Lambin E F, Geist H J. Global land use and land cover change: what have learned so far? Global Change Newsletter, 2001, (46): 27-30.
[17] http://dynamic.hps-inc.com/(lztemnjrahtrmobncn55msrz)/community/presentations/STELLA.aspx#
[18] http://www.chinawater.net.cn/law/w01.htm
[19] http://www.stats.gov.cn
[20] http://www.cpirc.org.cn
[21] http://218.56.33.82/aicwww/zhxx/qtxx/ls21zhanwang.htm
/
〈 | 〉 |