Analyzing the Developing Model of Chinese Cities under the Control of CO2 Emissions Using the STIRPAT Model:A Case Study of Shanghai
Received date: 2009-09-17
Revised date: 2010-05-07
Online published: 2010-08-20
With the economic development and increasing emissions of CO2, the study has become one of hotspots in the developing model of Chinese cities in order to slow down CO2 emissions. Using the STIRPAT model, this paper analyzed the impact of population, affluence, urbanization and technology on the total CO2 emissions, and the results showed that 1% change of population, per capita GDP, urbanization and technology would cause a corresponding occurrence of 0.618%, (0.178+0.009lnA)%, 0.816% and 0.264% change in the total CO2 emissions. Based on this study, taking Shanghai as an example, it set 10 developing scenarios and analyzed the best model of reducing CO2 emissions. Results show that under the scenario of economy, population in mid-speed, low urbanization and high technology, it would be best for Shanghai to reduce CO2 emissions, and the emissions of CO2 in 2010, 2015, 2020 would be 17053.57, 19286.64, 20885.69 ten thousands tons, respectively.
Key words： STIRPAT model; CO2 emissions; impact factor; developing scenario
YAN Hua, GUO Yungong, LIN Fengchun . Analyzing the Developing Model of Chinese Cities under the Control of CO2 Emissions Using the STIRPAT Model:A Case Study of Shanghai[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010 , 65(8) : 983 -990 . DOI: 10.11821/xb201008009
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