The Application of Temporal and Spatial Series Analysis to Flood and Drought Prediction in Northern China
Received date: 2003-04-09
Revised date: 2003-05-30
Online published: 2003-12-25
Supported by
The Natural Key Project for Basic Research, No.G1999043450; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40035010
Methodology and theoretical basis of the spatial-temporal series analysis is discussed in this paper, based on the phase space reconstruction theory and Taken's embedding theory, according to the prediction method of the phase space dynamics reconstruction theory for single variable time series, the dynamics prediction idea and method of the spatial-temporal series analysis is conducted then, which is also used in the long-term prediction of 5-, 10- and 20-year scales of drought and flood in the region of northern China. The preliminary results are as follows: to a certain degree, the method of the spatial-temporal series analysis has the predictable ability, and the dryness and wetness grades for 5- and 20- year scale on northern China are as normal, the dryness and wetness grades for 10-year scale in this region is a little wet above the normal.
WANG Geli, YANG Peicai . The Application of Temporal and Spatial Series Analysis to Flood and Drought Prediction in Northern China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003 , 58(7s) : 132 -137 . DOI: 10.11821/xb20037s016
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