Driving Forces of Runoff Changes for Marshy Rivers in Sanjiang Plain
Received date: 2002-02-10
Revised date: 2002-06-16
Online published: 2002-09-25
Supported by
The third-phase project of the lakes and swamps research of CAS, No. ZKHZ-3-5
In this paper, the characteristics and tendency of annual runoff changes of Naolihe River are analyzed, which is regarded as a typical marshy river in Sanjiang plain. Moreover, the aid of gray interrelation analysis and the radial basis function network are applied to discuss the reason of runoff decrease and abrupt changes. The annual runoff of two representative stations of Naolihe River presents the reduced tendency from 1964-1989 using Kendall method. According to mutative point analysis, the changes of annual runoff of Baoqing station that lies in the upstream of Naolihe River divide into two periods covering 1964-1973 and 1974-1989. The range of runoff is 3.56 ×108 m3. The changes of annual runoff of Caizuizi station that lies in the backward position of Naolihe River also divide into two periods covering 1964-1975 and 1976-1989. The range of runoff is 6.29 ×108 m3. Precipitation of the drainage area is the best sensitive factor to runoff changes. The concept of entropy is applied to study the nonuniformity on precipitation of distribution. The results show neither apparent spatial difference nor characteristic of temporal runoff change tendency exists in precipitation. Therefore the climate is not a major factor influencing runoff changes. According to nonlinear and uncertain relationship between various kinds of influencing factors and surface runoff, the model of radial basis function network that can reflect their relationship is built to predict the natural runoff of the drainage area, and be compared with actual measured runoff. The results show that natural runoff of Naolihe River decreases 60% from 1976 to 1980 and decreases 30% after 1980. These characteristics and tendency of runoff changes are related with the characteristics of marshy drainage areas and human activities, especially reclamation of wetlands and exhaustion of water resource largely. Human activities are the major driving force of runoff changes. Marshes have had significant influence on water balance of regional hydrologic systems. It is essential to strengthen the control and management of water resources in order to protect marshes when ground feature of a drainage basin and hydrologic cycle have changed clearly. It is beneficial to sustained utilization of water resource.
LUO Xianxiang, DENG Wei, HE Yan, Luan Zhaoqing1 . Driving Forces of Runoff Changes for Marshy Rivers in Sanjiang Plain[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002 , 57(5) : 603 -610 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200205013
[1] Chen Gangqi, Ma Xuehui. Research on changes of ground feature and water balance of mire before and after mire reclamation in Sanjiang Plain. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 1997, 17(supplement): 427-433.
[陈刚起, 马学慧．三江平原沼泽开垦前后下垫面及水平衡变化研究. 地理科学, 1997, 17
[增刊]: 427-433.]
[2] Kottegoda N T. Stochastic Water Resource Technology. Jin Guangyan (translated). Beijing: Agricultural Press, 1987.
[Kottegoda N T. 随机水资源技术. 金光炎 译. 北京: 农业出版社, 1987.]
[3] Li Lijuan, Zheng Hongxing. Characteristics and driving forces of annual runoff changes for rivers in North China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000, 55(3): 309-317.
[李丽娟, 郑红星. 华北典型河流径流演变规律及其驱动力分析. 地理学报, 2000, 55(3): 309-317.]
[4] Wei Fengying, Cao Hongxing. Detection of abrupt changes and trend prediction of the air temperature in China, the Northern Hemisphere and the Globe. Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 1995, 19(2): 140-147.
[魏凤英, 曹鸿兴. 中国、北半球和全球的气温突变分析及其趋势预测研究. 大气科学, 1995, 19(2): 140-147.]
[5] Liu Changming, Cheng Li. Analysis on runoff series with special reference to drying up courses of lower Huanghe River. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000, 55(3): 257-265.
[刘昌明, 成立. 黄河干流下游断流的径流序列分析. 地理学报, 2000, 55(3): 257-265.]
[6] Feng Lihua. Grey clustering forecast of the changing tendency of water resources. Resources Science, 1999, 21(3): 11-15.
[冯利华. 水资源变化趋势的灰色聚类预测. 资源科学, 1999, 21(3): 11-15.]
[7] TOM G Chapman. Entropy as a measure of hydrologic data uncertainty and model performance. Journal of Hydrology, 1986, 85: 111-126.
[8] Zhang Jiguo, Liu Xinren. Information entropy analysis on nonuniformity of precipitation distribution in time-space (I): basic concept and data analysis. Advances in Water Science, 2000, 11(2): 133-137.
[张继国, 刘新仁. 降水时空分布不均匀性的信息熵分析 (I). 水科学进展, 2000, 11(2): 133-137.]
[9] Liu Xingtu, Ma Xuehui. Influence of large-scale reclamation on natural environment and regional environmental protection in the Sanjiang Plain. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2000, 20(1): 14-19.
[刘兴土, 马学慧. 三江平原大面积开荒对自然环境影响及区域生态环境保护. 地理科学, 2000, 20(1): 14-19.]
[10] Ma Xuehui, Liu Xingtu. An analysis on present situation and assessment method for ecological environment quality of wetland in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 1997, 17(supplement): 401-408.
[马学慧, 刘兴土. 中国湿地生态环境质量现状分析与评价方法. 地理科学, 1997, 17(增刊): 401-408.]
[11] Yan Minhua, Deng Wei, Ma Xuehui. Climate variation in the Sanjiang Plain disturbed by large scale reclamation during the last 45 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2001, 56(2): 159-170.
[严敏华, 邓伟, 马学慧. 大面积开荒扰动下的三江平原近45年气候变化. 地理学报, 2001, 56(2): 159-170.]
[12] Cui Baoshan, Liu Xingtu. An analysis on ecological character changes of wetlands of Naolihe drainage basin in the Sanjiang Plain. Journal of Natural Resources, 2001, 16(2): 107-114.
[崔保山, 刘新土. 三江平原挠力河流域湿地生态特征变化研究. 自然资源学报, 2001, 16(2): 107-114.]
[13] Deng Wei. Wetland protection and sustainable utilization of water resources in the flooded area. Science and Technology Review, 2000, (3): 58-60.
[邓伟 . 洪泛区湿地保护与水资源可持续利用. 科技导报, 2000, (3): 58-60.]
[14] Luo Xianxiang, Deng Wei. Sensitivity analysis and forecast on dynamics of soil salinization in west plain of Songnen. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 2000, 14(3): 36-40.
[罗先香, 邓伟. 松嫩平原西部土壤盐渍化动态的敏感性分析与预测. 水土保持学报, 2000, 14(3): 36-40.]
[15] Zhang Shifa, Cui Xinwen. Trend analysis and probability prediction of annual runoff. Advances in Water Science, 1995, 6(1): 22-28.
[张世法, 崔新文. 径流的趋势分析和概率预测. 水科学进展, 1995, 6(1): 22-28.]
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |