Driving Forces of Runoff Changes for Marshy Rivers in Sanjiang Plain

  • 1. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, CAS, Changchun 130012, China;
    2. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100864, China

Received date: 2002-02-10

  Revised date: 2002-06-16

  Online published: 2002-09-25

Supported by

The third-phase project of the lakes and swamps research of CAS, No. ZKHZ-3-5


In this paper, the characteristics and tendency of annual runoff changes of Naolihe River are analyzed, which is regarded as a typical marshy river in Sanjiang plain. Moreover, the aid of gray interrelation analysis and the radial basis function network are applied to discuss the reason of runoff decrease and abrupt changes. The annual runoff of two representative stations of Naolihe River presents the reduced tendency from 1964-1989 using Kendall method. According to mutative point analysis, the changes of annual runoff of Baoqing station that lies in the upstream of Naolihe River divide into two periods covering 1964-1973 and 1974-1989. The range of runoff is 3.56 ×108 m3. The changes of annual runoff of Caizuizi station that lies in the backward position of Naolihe River also divide into two periods covering 1964-1975 and 1976-1989. The range of runoff is 6.29 ×108 m3. Precipitation of the drainage area is the best sensitive factor to runoff changes. The concept of entropy is applied to study the nonuniformity on precipitation of distribution. The results show neither apparent spatial difference nor characteristic of temporal runoff change tendency exists in precipitation. Therefore the climate is not a major factor influencing runoff changes. According to nonlinear and uncertain relationship between various kinds of influencing factors and surface runoff, the model of radial basis function network that can reflect their relationship is built to predict the natural runoff of the drainage area, and be compared with actual measured runoff. The results show that natural runoff of Naolihe River decreases 60% from 1976 to 1980 and decreases 30% after 1980. These characteristics and tendency of runoff changes are related with the characteristics of marshy drainage areas and human activities, especially reclamation of wetlands and exhaustion of water resource largely. Human activities are the major driving force of runoff changes. Marshes have had significant influence on water balance of regional hydrologic systems. It is essential to strengthen the control and management of water resources in order to protect marshes when ground feature of a drainage basin and hydrologic cycle have changed clearly. It is beneficial to sustained utilization of water resource.

Cite this article

LUO Xianxiang, DENG Wei, HE Yan, Luan Zhaoqing1 . Driving Forces of Runoff Changes for Marshy Rivers in Sanjiang Plain[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002 , 57(5) : 603 -610 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200205013


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