Estimation of Areal Precipitation Series and Its Relation to Runoff in Aksu River Basin
Received date: 2006-03-26
Revised date: 2006-05-28
Online published: 2006-07-25
Supported by
Special Fund for Public Good Project of Ministry of Science and Technology, No.2004DIB3J118; No.2005DIB6J113; China Desert Meteorological Science Research Fund, No. SQJ2004003
Based on Digital Elevation Model with a spatial resolution of 1 km×1 km, the data of annual precipitation obtained from 12 meteorological and 2 hydrological stations (1961-2000) in the Aksu river catchment was filtered using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF). Through regression analysis, an interpolation model between the main characteristic vectors of EOF and geographical parameters was established. The annual areal precipitation was calculated from this model, and it is proved to be an efficient scheme to establish areal mean series of climate element. As a result, the annual areal precipitation and its spatial distribution are calculated on the grids that covered the basin. Point estimates were verified against meteorological or hydrological station data. The ratio (R/P) of the runoff of the Aksu river and calculated areal precipitation is 0.43 on average, the maximum is 0.69 (1997) and the minimum 0.30 (1963). The rates of changing trends of calculated areal precipitation and the observed runoff of Aksu river were 5.79×108 m3/10a and 4.29×108 m3/10a respectively, and both of them presented an increasing trend. The annual changing trend and extent of the areal precipitation are higher than those of the runoff. Both of their coefficients of variation (Cv) are 0.17 and 0.13, respectively. There is a close relationship between the annual runoff and annual areal precipitation and 0oC level height in summer. So the climate change after the 1990s in Xinjiang was the main cause for stable runoff increase in the Aksu river basin.
Key words： areal precipitation; runoff; climate change; Aksu river basin
YANG Qing, SUN Churong, SHI Yuguang, MAO Weiyi, LI Yang . Estimation of Areal Precipitation Series and Its Relation to Runoff in Aksu River Basin[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006 , 61(7) : 697 -704 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200607003
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