Simulation on Spatial Land Use Patterns Using AutoLogistic Method: A Case Study of Yongding County, Zhangjiajie
Received date: 2007-05-08
Revised date: 2007-10-08
Online published: 2008-02-25
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40771198
Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is an important content of geographical research on global change today, while spatial simulation on regional land use patterns is one of the key contents of LUCC research because modeling is an important tool for simulating land use patterns due to its ability to integrate measurements of changes in land cover and the associated drivers. Spatial data, like land-use data, have a tendency to be dependent (spatial autocorrelation), which means that when using spatial models, a part of the variance may be explained by neighbouring values. The classic regression model can only analyze the correlation between land use types and driving factors, but cannot depict spatial autocorrelation. Land uses in Yongding County, which is one of the typical karst mountain areas in northwestern Hunan province, were investigated by means of modeling the spatial autocorrelation of land use types for the purpose of deriving better spatial land use patterns on the basis of terrain characteristics and infrastructural conditions. All driving factors such as distance to town, distance to river, distance to road, population density, altitude, slope and aspect were produced with ArcGis spatial analysis means. Then the weighting coefficient of every land use type was analysed with SPSS13.0. Through incorporating components describing the spatial autocorrelation into a classic Logistic model, this paper sets up a regression model (AutoLogistic model), which considers the spatial autocorrelation factor, and uses the model to simulate and analyze the spatial land use patterns in Yongding County. In addition, the results of two different models are validated by an ROC method. The ROC can compare a map of actual land use distribution to maps of modeled probability for land use types. Through comparison with the classic logistic model without considering the spatial autocorrelation, this model showed better goodness of fitting and higher accuracy of fitting. The ROC curves (AUC) of cultivated land, forest land, construction land and virgin land from classic Logistic regression model were 0.851, 0.913, 0.877 and 0.852 respectively. They were improved to 0.893, 0.940, 0.907 and 0.863 accordingly when using AutoLogistic model. It is argued that the improved model based on autologistic method is reasonable to some degree. At the same time, these types of analysis can provide valuable information for modeling future land use change scenarios that need to consider local and regional conditions of actual land use, and the probability maps of land use types obtained from this study can also support government decisions on land use management for Yongding County and similar areas.
WU Guiping, ZENG Yongnian, ZOU Bin, QI Qingchao, YANG Song . Simulation on Spatial Land Use Patterns Using AutoLogistic Method: A Case Study of Yongding County, Zhangjiajie[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2008 , 63(2) : 156 -164 . DOI: 10.11821/xb200802005
[1] Cai Yunlong. A study on land use/land cover change: The need for a new integrated approach. Geographical Research, 2001, 20(6): 645-652.
[蔡运龙. 土地利用/ 土地覆被变化研究: 寻求新的综合途径. 地理研究, 2001, 20(6): 645-652.]
[2] Chen Youqi, Peter H Verburg, Xu Bin. Spatial modeling of land use and its effects in China. Progress in Geography, 2000, 19(2): 116-127.
[陈佑启, Peter H Verburg, 徐斌. 中国土地利用变化及其影响. 地理科学进展, 2000, 19(2): 116-127.]
[3] Deng Xiangzheng, Liu Jiyuan, Zhan Jinyan et al. Dynamic simulation on the spatio-temporal patterns of land use change in Taibus County. Geographical Research, 2004, 23(2): 147-157.
[邓祥征, 刘纪远, 战金艳等. 太仆寺旗土地利用变化 时空格局的动态模拟. 地理研究, 2004, 23(2): 147-157.]
[4] Tumer II B L, Skole D, Sanderson S et al. Land-use and land-cover change science/research plan. IGBP Report No.35 and HDP Report No.7. Stockholm: IGBP, 1995.
[5] Lambin E F, Baulies X, Bockstael N et al. Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) implementation strategy. IGBP Report No.48 and HDP Report No.10.Stockholm: IGBP, 1999.
[6] Veldkamp A, Lambin E F. Predicting land-use change. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2001, 85: 1-6.
[7] Li Xiubin. A review of the international researches on land use/land cover changes. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1996, 51 (5): 553-558.
[李秀彬. 全球环境变化研究的核心领域: 土地利用/ 土地覆被变化的国际研究动向. 地理学报, 1996, 51(5): 553-558.]
[8] Lambin E F. Modeling and monitoring land-cover change processes in tropical regions. Progress in Physical Geography, 1997, 21(5): 375-393.
[9] De Koning G H J, Verburg P H, Veldkamp A et al. Multi-scale modeling of land use change dynamics in Ecuador. Agric. Syst., 1999, 61:77-93.
[10] Agarwal C, Green G L, Grove M, et al. A review and assessment of land use change models: Dynamics of space, time, and human choice. CIPEC collaborative report No.1.Joint publication by the Center for the Study of Institutions, Population, and Environmental Change at Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, and the USDA Northeastern Forest Research Station,Burlington,Vermont, 2002, 81.
[11] Veldkamp A, Fresco L O. Exploring land use scenarios: An alternative approach based on actual land use. Agriculture Systems, 1997, 55: 1-17.
[12] Veldkamp A, Fresco L O. CLUE: A conceptual model to study the conversion of land use and its effects. Ecological Modelling, 1996, 85: 253-270.
[13] Zhang Yongmin, Zhou Chenghu, Zheng Chunhui et al. Spatial land use patterns in Guyuan county: Simulation and analysis at multi-scale levels. Resources Science, 2006, 28(2): 88-96.
[ 张永民, 周成虎, 郑纯辉等. 沽源县土地利用 格局的多尺度模拟与分析. 资源科学, 2006, 28(2): 88-96.]
[14] Xie Hualin, Liu Liming, Li Bo et al. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of multi-scale land-use changes: A case study in Ongniud Banner, Inner Mongolia. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(4): 389-400.
[谢花林, 刘黎明, 李波等. 土地利 用变化的多尺度空间自相关分析: 以内蒙古翁牛特旗为例. 地理学报, 2006, 61(4):389-400.]
[15] Shi Peijun, Chen Jin, Pan Yaozhong. Landuse change mechanism in Shenzhen city. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2000, 55 (2): 151-160.
[史培军, 陈晋, 潘耀忠. 深圳市土地利用变化机制分析. 地理学报, 2000, 55(2): 151-160.]
[16] Gan Hong, Liu Yansui, Wang Dawei. Simulation and analysis of human driving factors of land use type conversion. Resources Science, 2004, 26(2): 88-93.
[甘红, 刘彦随, 王大伟. 土地利用类型转换的人文驱动因子模拟分析. 资源 科学, 2004, 26(2): 88-93.]
[17] Wang Xiulan. Analysis on demographic factors and land use/land cover change. Resources Science, 2000, 22(3): 39-42.
[王秀兰. 土地利用/ 土地覆盖变化中的人口因素分析. 资源科学, 2000, 22(3): 39-42.]
[18] Zhu Huiyi, He Shujin, Zhang Ming. Driving forces analysis of land use change in Bohai Rim. Geographical Research, 2001, 20(6): 669-678.
[朱会义, 何书金, 张明. 环渤海地区土地利用变化的驱动力分析. 地理研究, 2001, 20(6): 669-678.]
[19] Wu F, Yeh A G. Changing spatial distribution and determinants of land development in Chinese cities in the transition from a centrally planned economy to a socialist market economy: A case study of Guangzhou. Urban Studies, 1997, 34 (11): 1851-1879.
[20] Gobim A, Campling P, Feyen J. Logistic modeling to derive agricultural land determinants: A case study from southeastern Nigeria. Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment, 2002, 89: 213-228.
[21] Serneels S, Lambin E F. Proximate causes of land use change in Narok district Kenya: A spatial statistical model. Agriculture, Ecosystem and Environment, 2001, 85: 65-82.
[22] Verburg A, Soepboer P H, Veldkamp W et al. Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: The CLUE-S Model. Environmental Management, 2002, 30(3): 391-405.
[23] Zhang Yongmin, Zhao Shidong, Verburg P H. CLUE-S and its application for simulating temporal and spatial change of land use in Naiman Banner. Journal of Natural Resources, 2003, 18(3): 310-318.
[ 张永民, 赵士洞, Verburg P H. CLUE-S 模型及其在奈曼旗土地利用时空动态变化模拟中的应用. 自然资源学报, 2003, 18(3): 310-318.]
[24] Jiao Feng, Qin Boqiang. Study on driving force of landscape in Hufu watershed on small scale supported by GIS. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2003, 12(3): 205-210.
[焦锋, 秦伯强. GIS 支持下的小尺度土地驱 动力研究: 以宜兴市湖滏小流域为例. 长江流域资源与环境, 2003, 12(3): 205-210.]
[25] Legendre P, Legendre L. Numerical Ecology. Developments in Environmental Modelling 20. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 1998.
[26] Laurent Abel, Jean-Louis Golmard, Alain Mallet. An autologistic model for the genetic analysis of familiar binary data. Am. J. Hum. Genet, 1993, 53: 894-907.
[27] Augustin N H, Mugglestone M A, Buckland S T. An autologistic model for the spatial distribution of wildlife. Journal of Applied Ecology, 1996, 33: 339-347.
[28] Hulin Wu, Fred W Huffer. Modelling the distribution of plant species using the autologistic regression model. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 1997, 4: 49-64.
[29] Pontius R G, Cornell J D, Hall C A S. Modeling the spatial pattern of land-use change with GEOMOD2: Application and validation for Costa Rica. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 2001, 85:191-203.
[30] R Gil Pontius Jr, Laura C Sch neider. Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed, Massachusetts, USA. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 2001, 85: 239-248.
[31] Liu Xiaoping, Li Xia. Retrieving CA nonlinear transition rule from high-dimensional feature space. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(6): 663-672.
[ 刘小平, 黎夏. 从高维特征空间中获取元胞自动机的非线性转换规则. 地理学报, 2006, 61(6): 663-672.]
/
| 〈 |
|
〉 |