An Integrated Analysis of Impact Factors in Determining China's Future Grain Production

  • 1.Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture; Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Beijing 100081; China; 
    2.The Key Laboratory for Agro-environment & Climate Change; Ministry of Agriculture; Beijing 100081; China; 3.Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; Beijing 100732; China; 4.Water Resources Information Center; Ministry of Water Resources; Beijing 100053; China

Received date: 2009-02-27

  Revised date: 2009-12-09

  Online published: 2010-04-25

Supported by

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.30700477; National Technology R&D Program, No.2007BAC03A02


An integrated simulation framework was introduced to assess China\'s future cereal production.The integrated framework includes simulations of climate change,water availability,crop yield and socio-economic characteristics,and their interactions on future cereal productions.The simulations are based on a reasonable socio-economic scenario which is consistent with China\'s mid-and long-term national development plan.Results demonstrate (1) Climate change will affect cereal yield.Excluding CO2 fertilization effects,yield drops for all cereal crops,with remarkable increases in both instability of production and possibility of lower yield.Irrigation partially offsets the damages caused by climate change.The biggest yield decrease occurs for rice with A2.Including the CO2 fertilization effects,yield increases for most crops,particularly for rainfed wheat,and rice,a small promotion occurs for maize.(2) Cereal\'s water demand will change in future,along with anticipated irrigation water supply.Interactions of climate change,water availability and socio-economic development result in an unmatched change between water demand and supply.These consequently induce obvious decreases in sown area of irrigated crops or increases in rainfed crops.(3) Interactions of climate change,CO2 effects,water availability and land use change on crop production are complicated,which highly depend on the scenarios and expected periods.The biggest harmful attribution comes from water availability,least from land use change,while the combination of climate change and CO2 may increase crop production.Regarding specific crop,production decreases for rice,but increases for wheat and maize.

Cite this article

XIONG Wei1; 2; LIN Erda1; 2; JIANG Jinhe3; LI Yan4; XU Yinlong1; 2 . An Integrated Analysis of Impact Factors in Determining China's Future Grain Production[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010 , 65(4) : 397 -406 . DOI: 10.11821/xb201004002


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