Received date: 2009-08-14
Revised date: 2010-02-26
Online published: 2010-04-25
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40801231; No.70873118; National Key Technology R&D Program of China, No.2006BAC08B03; No.2006BAC08B06; Knowledge Innovation Program of the CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-326-1; No.KZCX2-YW-305-2.
Cultivated land conversion is considered to be one of the major problems threatening agricultural development,food security and supporting functions of cultivated land conversions in Jiangxi.Recognization on the driving mechanism of cultivated land conversions is far from complete.This paper integrates geophysical information with socio-economic processes and policy changes to build an econometric model to explore the driving mechanism of cultivated land conversion from 1988 to 2005.Three equations are included in the econometric model to uncover the driving mechanism for agriculture production process,the conversion process from cultivated land to built-up area and the conversion process from cultivated land to forested land/grassland,which includes explained variables to identify the three main processes and the driving forces from social-economic,demographic,geophysical,managerial domains.The estimation results from the econometric model shows that the population size is one of the predominant driver for the three processes,and socio-economic factors play a decisive role in a short period of time.The synthesized influences from the multiple driving factors produces an enhanced or offsetting resultant effects for the ecological processes.The research results show that the agricultural population size and investment are the key influencing factors for agricultural production,while population size,the ratio of the plains area to total land and land management policy are the key explanatory variables in the conversion process of cultivated land to built-up area;and the proportion of agricultural population,terrain slope,food production and non-agricultural industry are the important influencing variables in the process of conversion from cultivated land to forested land/grassland.
ZHAN Jinyan1; SHI Nana1; DENG Xiangzheng2 . Driving Mechanism of Cultivated Land Conversions in Jiangxi[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010 , 65(4) : 485 -493 . DOI: 10.11821/xb201004010
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