Received date: 2009-08-14
Revised date: 2009-12-22
Online published: 2010-02-25
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.70821140353; No.70873118; National Key Technology R&D Program, No.2006BAC08B03; No.2006BAC08B06; Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZCX2-YW-326-1; No.KZCX2-YW-305-2; No.KSCX1-YW-09-04
The Northeast China region is one of the areas covered by plenty of primeval forests. As an important region for ecological protection, it contributes a lot to the conservation of water resources and land, produces timber production and provides habitats for a huge number of wild animals and plants. With changes in socio-economic conditions as well as the geophysical environment, there are more and more severe decreasing trends of forestry area. Therefore, it is of significance to find the underlining reasons for the changes of forestry areas. To grasp the determinants of forestry area in Northeast China, we develop the econometric model with three equations identifying forest industrial production, conversion from sparse woodland to closed forest and conversion from non-forestry land uses to forestry area, and then explore the impacts on the changes of forestry area from such factors as demography, society, economy, location and geophysical conditions. On this basis, we employ Dynamics of Land System (DLS) simulation software to simulate land conversions between forestry area and non-forestry land uses and the land conversion inside forestry area for the period 2000-2020 under baseline scenario, environmental conservation scenario and development as the top priority. The research results show that forestry area will expand continuously and there exist various kinds of changing patterns for the secondary forestry classes, indicating that closed forest will expand continuously while sparse woodland and shrubs decrease a little bit, area of other forest uses will remain unchanged. The research results provide valuable information for decision-making in development and utilization of forest resources and forestry development plan in Northeast China.
DENG Xiangzheng1; 2; JIANG Qun'ou1; 3; ZHAN Jinyan4; HE Shujin1; LIN Yingzhi1 . Causes and Trends of Forestry Area Change in Northeast China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010 , 65(2) : 224 -234 . DOI: 10.11821/xb201002009
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