EN中文

Acta Geographica Sinica >

2012 , Vol. 67 >Issue 10: 1411 - 1422

DOI: https://doi.org/10.11821/xb201210011

Early-warning of Land Ecological Security in Hunan Province Based on RBF

Expand
  • 1. College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China;
    2. Department of Resources, Environment and Tourism Management, Hengyang Normal University, Hengyang 421008, Hunan, China

Received date: 2011-12-08

  Revised date: 2012-06-05

  Online published: 2012-10-20

Supported by

National Social Science Foundation of China, No.41071067; Graduate Student Research Innovation Project of 2011 in Hunan, No.CX2011B190; Construction Project of the Key Disciplines in Hunan, No.2011001

Fold

Abstract

Based on the related data of land ecological security of Hunan Province from 1996 to 2010, this paper constructed a land ecological security early-warning index system for Hunan Province from three aspects which were pressure, state and response. And then it used the RBF model to make a prediction for land ecological security development trend of Hunan Province in 2011-2015, and at last made a warning analysis of the land ecological security of the province from 1996 to 2015 according to the early-warning index and warning degree standards. The results are shown as follows. (1) RBF model has a relatively high simulation accuracy, which can well fit the land ecological security system's development trends of Hunan Province in 2011-2015. (2) In terms of each subsystem's warning degree, the early-warning index of the pressure system showed an upward trend with fluctuations in 1996-2010, and the warning degree rose from light alarm to moderate alarm, the indicator light turned from blue lamp to yellow lamp gradually; the early-warning index will continue to rise from moderate alarm (yellow lamp) to heavy alarm (orange lamp) with fluctuations in 2011-2015. As for the state system, its early-warning index showed an upward trend with fluctuations in 1996-2010, although it remained in the moderate alarm (yellow lamp) state, alert should be maintained on the situation; in 2011-2015, the signs of serious deterioration will not occur because of the further effects and regulation of the response system, and it will remain at the level of 2008-2010. As for the response system, it showed a downward trend in 1996-2010, from which the state of huge alarm (red lamp) plummeted to no alarm (green lamp); its early-warning index will decline in 2011-2015 which will keep the state of green lamp and be increasingly close to the lower limit of the state of no alarm. (3) Overall, in 1996-2010, the land ecological security warning degree of Hunan Province showed a slight downward trend. In 2011-2015, its early-warning index will be about 0.42, and warning degree will keep in the state of moderate alarm (yellow lamp). (4) The main factors that influence the land ecological security of Hunan Province include the proportion of agricultural economy, the amount of farmland used for construction, the proportion of natural disaster-affected area, per capita area of construction land, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and the proportion of nature reserves. These are the focus of land ecological security regulation in the future.

Key words： land ecological security; early-warning; RBF; Hunan Province

Cite this article

XU Mei, ZHU Xiang, LIU Chunla . Early-warning of Land Ecological Security in Hunan Province Based on RBF[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012 , 67(10) : 1411 -1422 . DOI: 10.11821/xb201210011

References

[1] Fu Bojie. Early warning theory on regional eco-environmental issues and its application. Chinese Journal of AppliedEcology, 1993, 4(4): 436-439. [傅伯杰. 区域生态环境预警的理论及其应用. 应用生态学报, 1993, 4(4): 436-439.]

[2] Cui Shenghui, Hong Huasheng, Huang Yunfeng et al. Progress of the ecological security research. Acta EcologicaSinica, 2005, 25(4): 861-868. [崔胜辉, 洪华生, 黄云凤等. 生态安全研究进展. 生态学报, 2005, 25(4): 861-868.]

[3] Travis C C, Morris J M. The emergence of ecological risk assessment. Risk Analysis, 1992, 12(2): 167-168.

[4] Dong Wei, Zhang Xianghui, Su De et al. Progress on forewarning of ecological security. Environmental Science andTechnology, 2007, (12): 97-99. [董伟, 张向晖, 苏德等. 生态安全预警进展研究. 环境科学与技术, 2007, (12): 97-99.]

[5] Fu Bojie. Principles and methodology of early warning on regional ecological and environment issues. ResourcesDevelopment and Conservation, 1991, 7(3): 138-141. [傅伯杰. 区域生态环境预警的原理与方法. 资源开发与保护,1991, 7(3): 138-141.]

[6] Yin Changbin, Chen Jixiang, Lu Mingzhong. Analysis of the pre-warning in natural resources development. ChinaPopulation, Resources and Environment, 1999, 9(3): 34-38. [尹昌斌, 陈基湘, 鲁明中. 自然资源开发利用度预警分析.中国人口·资源与环境, 1999, 9(3): 34-38.]

[7] Shi Xiaoqing, Zhao Jingzhu, Ouyang Zhiyun. Urban eco-security and its dynamic assessment method. Acta EcologicaSinica, 2005, 25(12): 3237-3243. [施晓清, 赵景柱, 欧阳志云. 城市生态安全及其动态评价方法. 生态学报, 2005, 25(12): 3237-3243.]

[8] Liu Shaoquan, Chen Guojie, Chen Zhijian. Ecological and environmental warning on rural habitat ecosystem: A casestudy of group 5 of Cizhu Village in Wanzhou District. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2001, 21(2): 295-311. [刘邵权, 陈国阶,陈治谏. 农村聚落生态环境预警: 以万州区茨竹乡茨竹五组为例. 生态学报, 2001, 21(2): 295-311.]

[9] Luo Tingwen, Su Mo, Xu Yali. Progresses of early warning on ecological and environmental issues and its applicationin land use and management fields. Modern Economic Information, 2011, (8): 202-204. [罗婷文, 苏墨, 徐雅莉. 生态环境预警研究进展及在土地领域的应用. 现代经济信息, 2011, (8): 202-204.]

[10] Tao Qingshan, Li Jiangfeng, Wang Jianlong. Research on early-warning of sustainable land use. Journal of Anhui Agri.Sci., 2007, 35(2): 508-509, 511. [陶青山, 李江风, 王建龙. 土地可持续利用预警研究. 安徽农业科学, 2007, 35(2):508-509, 511.]

[11] Zhang Honghui. Research on land quality early warning information system based on GlS technology [D]. Nanjing:Nanjing Agricultural University, 2005. [张鸿辉. 基于GlS 技术的耕地质量预警信息系统研究[D]. 南京: 南京农业大学, 2005.]

[12] Li Xinju, Hu Zhenqi, Liu Ning et al. Warning system for soil quality based on land use and cover changes in YellowRiver Delta. Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2006, 22(8): 32-37. [李新举, 胡振琪, 刘宁等. 基于土地利用和覆被变化的黄河三角洲土壤质量预警研究. 农业工程学报, 2006, 22(8): 32-37.]

[13] Ge Xiangdong, Peng Buzhuo, Pu Lijie et al. A research into monitoring and early-warning of dynamic balancemaintenance of total farmland. Journal of Natural Resources, 2002, 17(1): 35-41. [葛向东, 彭补拙, 濮励杰等. 耕地总量动态平衡的监测和预警研究. 自然资源学报, 2002, 17(1): 35-41.]

[14] Li Fengquan, Wu Zhangrong. A study on soil salinization early-warning in semi-arid area: As a sample in west JilinProvince. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2002, 22(1): 57-59. [李凤全, 吴樟荣. 半干旱地区土地盐碱化预警研究: 以吉林省西部土地盐碱化预警为例. 水土保持通报, 2002, 22(1): 57-59.]

[15] Wu Guancen, Niu Xing. Application of an evaluation model based on punishing variable weight for early warning ofland ecological security: A case study of Huaian. Resources Science, 2010, 32(5): 992-999. [吴冠岑, 牛星. 土地生态安全预警的惩罚型变权评价模型及应用: 以淮安市为例. 资源科学, 2010, 32(5): 992-999.]

[16] Yu Feng, Li Xiaobing, Wang Hong et al. Land use change and eco-security assessment of Huangfuchuan watershed.Acta Geographica Sinica, 2006, 61(6): 645-653. [喻锋, 李晓兵, 王宏等. 皇甫川流域土地利用变化与生态安全评价.地理学报, 2006, 61(6): 645-653.]

[17] Li Wanlian. Review of research on the ecological security in China. Safety and Environmental Engineering, 2008, 15 (3): 78-81. [李万莲. 我国生态安全预警研究进展. 安全与环境工程, 2008, 15(3): 78-81.]

[18] Zhang Youming, Li Qingguo, Dai Guanzhong et al. Optimization of radial basis function network structure usingsingular value decomposition method. Control and Decision, 1996, 11(6): 667-671. [张友民, 李庆国, 戴冠中等. 一种RBF网络结构优化方法. 控制与决策, 1996, 11(6): 667-671.]

[19] Wu Cifang, Bao Haijun. Theories and Methods of Land Resource Security Research. Beijing: China MeteorologicalPress, 2004: 131-133. [吴次方, 鲍海军. 土地资源安全研究的理论与方法. 北京: 气象出版社, 2004: 131-133.]

[20] Zheng Rongbao, Liu Yihua, Dong Yuxiang et al. Appraisal of land resources security in Guangzhou based on majorfunction regionalization. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(6): 654-664. [郑荣宝, 刘毅华, 董玉祥等. 基于主体功能区划的广州市土地资源安全评价. 地理学报, 2009, 64(6): 654-664.]

[21] Qu Yanbo, Qi Wei, Shang Ran et al. A study on land eco-security evaluation in mountainous area at county levelbased on GIS. China Land Science, 2008, 22(4): 39-44. [曲衍波, 齐伟, 商冉等. 基于GIS 的山区县域土地生态安全评价. 中国土地科学, 2008, 22(4): 39-44.]

[22] Guo Xiurui, Yang Jurong, Mao Xianqiang. Primary studies on urban ecosystem health assessment. ChinaEnvironmental Science, 2002, 22(6): 525-529. [郭秀锐, 杨居荣, 毛显强. 城市生态系统健康评价初探. 中国环境科学, 2002, 22(6): 525-529.]

[23] Rainer W A L Z. Development of environmental indicator systems: Experiences from Germany. EnvironmentalManagement, 2000, 25(6): 613-623.

[24] Li Jing, Li Zijun, Lv Jianshu. Evaluation of land ecological security in Liaocheng City. Bulletin of Soil and WaterConservation, 2011, 31(2): 198-202. [李静, 李子君, 吕建树. 聊城市土地生态安全评价. 水土保持通报, 2011, 31(2):198-202.]

[25] Chen Dejun, Hu Huacheng, Zhou Zude. Research on mixture neural network model based on radial basis function.Journal of Wuhan University of Technology, 2007, 29(2): 122-125. [陈德军, 胡华成, 周祖德. 基于径向基函数的混合神经网络模型研究. 武汉理工大学学报, 2007, 29(2): 122-125.]

[26] Tang Qiyi, Feng Mingguang. DPS Data Processing System: Experimental Design, Statistical Analysis and Modeling.Beijing: Science Press, 2006. [唐启义, 冯明光. DPS数据处理系统: 实验设计、统计分析及模型优化. 北京: 科学出版社, 2006.]

[27] Shu Bangrong, Liu Youzhao, Xu Jinliang et al. Early warning of ecological security based on BP-ANN: A case studyof Suzhou. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2010, 19(2): 1080-1085. [舒帮荣, 刘友兆, 徐进亮等. 基于BP-ANN的生态安全预警研究: 以苏州市为例. 长江流域资源与环境, 2010, 19(2): 1080-1085.]

[28] Jia Yanhong, Zhao Jun, Nan Zhongren et al. The application of entropy-right method to the study of ecologicalsecurity evaluation of grassland: A case study at the ecological security evaluation of grassland to pastoral area ofGansu. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2007, 21(1): 18-21. [贾艳红, 赵军, 南忠仁等. 熵权法在草原生态安全评价研究中的应用: 以甘肃牧区为例. 干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(1): 18-21.]

[29] Tang Jianglong. Land use planning methods structure design and applied research based on artificial neural work [D].Nanjing: Nanjing Agricultural University, 2006. [汤江龙. 土地利用规划人工神经网络模型构建及应用研究[D]. 南京:南京农业大学, 2006.]

[30] Wen Xin. MATLAB Neural Network Applications. Beijing: Science Press, 2001. [闻新. MATLAB神经网络应用设计.北京: 科学出版社, 2001.]

[31] Zhu Xiang. Development Model of CZT Urban Agglomeration. Changsha: Hunan Education Press, 2010. [朱翔. 长株潭城市群发展模式研究. 长沙: 湖南教育出版社, 2010.]

[32] Li Dechuan, Liao Tiejun, Liu Hong et al. Research on early-warning of land ecological security in Leshan City.Journal of Southwest University: Natural Science Edition, 2009, 31(3): 141-147. [黎德川, 廖铁军, 刘洪等. 乐山市土地生态安全预警研究. 西南大学学报: 自然科学版, 2009, 31(3): 141-147.]

[33] Qiu Kouhua. Management Decision-making Study and Application of Entropy. Beijing: Mechanical Industry Press,2002. [邱蔻华. 管理决策与应用熵学. 北京: 机械工业出版社, 2002.]

[34] Zhan Jinyan, Shi Nana, Deng Xiangzheng. Driving mechanism of cultivated land conversions in Jiangxi. ActaGeographica Sinica, 2010, 65(4): 485-493. [战金艳, 史娜娜, 邓祥征. 江西省耕地转移驱动机理. 地理学报, 2010, 65(4): 485-493.]

[35] Fang Chuanglin, Liu Haiyan. The spatial privation and the corresponding controlling paths in China's urbanizationprocess. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2007, 62(8): 849-860. [方创琳, 刘海燕. 快速城市化进程中的区域剥夺行为与调控路径. 地理学报, 2007, 62(8): 849-860.]

[36] Liu Yansui. Cultivated land protection should prevent "inside job". People's Daily, 2011-11-21(9). [刘彦随. 耕地保护要杜绝“监守自盗”. 人民日报, 2011-11-21(9).]

[37] Li Jingbao, Dai Yong, Yin Hui et al. Agricultural drought in Dongting Lake basin in recent 60 years: Evolutioncharacteristics and trend prediction. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2011, 33(6): 1391-1398. [李景保, 代勇, 尹辉等. 1950-2009 年洞庭湖流域农业旱灾演变特征及趋势预测. 冰川冻土, 2011, 33(6): 1391-1398.]
Options
Outlines

/

〈 〉