Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2019, Vol. 74 ›› Issue (4): 664-680.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201904004
• Population and Urbanization Research • Previous Articles Next Articles
Chao WANG1(), Aike KAN2(
), Yelong ZENG3, Guoqing LI4, Min WANG1, Ren CI5
Received:
2017-08-31
Revised:
2019-03-11
Online:
2019-04-25
Published:
2019-04-23
Supported by:
Chao WANG, Aike KAN, Yelong ZENG, Guoqing LI, Min WANG, Ren CI. Population distribution pattern and influencing factors in Tibet based on random forest model[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(4): 664-680.
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Tab. 1
Influencing factors of population distribution
影响因素 | 影响因子 | 描述 |
---|---|---|
地形地貌(A) | 海拔(A1) | 地形地貌是影响人口分布的最基本因素之一:随着海拔高度的增加,地形起伏度呈现逐渐升高趋势,人口也随之减少[ |
坡度(A2) | ||
坡向(A3) | ||
地形起伏度(A4) | ||
气候(B) | 多年平均降雨量(B1) | 人类对不同水热条件影响下的资源和环境条件具有选择偏好,在较广的范围内,人口密度与气温、降水量呈显著的正相关关系[ |
多年平均气温(B2) | ||
植被覆盖(C) | NDVI(C) | 以NDVI为代表的植被指数能反映植被覆盖情况,一方面显示了人类生产生活所依赖的植被资源分布,另一方面则展示了不适宜居住区的空间分布(如沙漠和密林)[ |
土地利用(D) | 土地利用指数(Dn) | 根据“无土地则无人口”原则,人口分布受特定的土地利用类型影响,且土地利用面积与人口分布具有强相关性[ |
河流(E) | 河网密度(E1) | 河流一方面为人们提供充足而稳定的水源,另一方面造就沿岸地势低平、土壤肥沃的格局,为人们居住生活、基础设施建设和发展生产提供适宜的空间[ |
距河流距离(E2) | ||
道路(F) | 路网密度(F1) | 基于交通条件的区域可达性与人口分布关系密切,该因素对欠发达地区人口集聚所起的作用远大于发达地区[ |
距道路距离(F2) | ||
经济发展(G) | 夜间灯光指数(G1) | 夜间灯光亮度是城镇化的一个解释性指标,能反映城镇化水平,根据灯光影像的亮度值和人口距离衰减定律可以估算人口总数和人口分布[ |
GDP(G2) | ||
工业总产值(G3) | ||
农林牧渔业 产值(G4) |
Tab. 2
The total population and area of each population density range at township level in Tibet
人口密度分级(人/km2) | 统计单元个数(个) | 总人口(人) | 人口占比(%) | 总面积(km2) | 面积占比(%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
0~1 | 102 | 235880 | 7.86 | 768471 | 63.82 |
1~4 | 189 | 550149 | 18.33 | 244664 | 20.32 |
4~7 | 115 | 482070 | 16.06 | 91516 | 7.60 |
7~10 | 75 | 378282 | 12.60 | 45631 | 3.79 |
10~40 | 126 | 870345 | 28.99 | 51935 | 4.31 |
40~70 | 7 | 43936 | 1.46 | 918 | 0.08 |
70~100 | 1 | 6621 | 0.22 | 74 | 0.01 |
100~400 | 6 | 142181 | 4.74 | 722 | 0.06 |
400~700 | 2 | 93542 | 3.12 | 172 | 0.01 |
>700 | 1 | 199159 | 6.63 | 68 | 0.01 |
Tab. 3
The correlation coefficient between population distribution with each influencing factor
影响因子 | 序号 | 与人口密度相关系数 | 与人口总数相关系数 | 相关系数平均值 |
---|---|---|---|---|
海拔 | A1 | -0.137** | -0.172** | -0.155 |
坡度 | A2 | -0.058 | -0.058 | - |
坡向 | A3 | 0.013 | 0.016 | - |
地形起伏度 | A4 | -0.043 | -0.058 | - |
多年平均降雨量 | B1 | -0.057 | -0.02 | - |
多年平均气温 | B2 | 0.171** | 0.197** | 0.184 |
NDVI | C | -0.001 | 0.047 | - |
冰川和永久积雪指数 | D1 | -0.044 | -0.047 | - |
草地指数 | D2 | -0.043 | -0.008 | - |
耕地指数 | D3 | 0.078 | 0.088* | - |
灌木指数 | D4 | 0.067 | 0.049 | - |
裸地指数 | D5 | -0.05 | -0.100* | - |
人造地表指数 | D6 | 0.942** | 0.810** | 0.876 |
森林指数 | D7 | -0.025 | -0.009 | - |
湿地指数 | D8 | -0.015 | -0.02 | - |
水体指数 | D9 | -0.023 | -0.021 | - |
苔原指数 | D10 | -0.005 | 0.072 | - |
河网密度 | E1 | 0.498** | 0.437** | 0.468 |
距河流距离 | E2 | -0.045 | -0.071 | - |
路网密度 | F1 | 0.664** | 0.630** | 0.647 |
距道路距离 | F2 | -0.048 | -0.089* | - |
夜间灯光指数 | G1 | 0.902** | 0.792** | 0.847 |
GDP | G2 | 0.398** | 0.490** | 0.444 |
工业总产值 | G3 | 0.453** | 0.452** | 0.453 |
农林牧渔业产值 | G4 | 0.036 | 0.327** | - |
Tab. 4
Population density fitting R2, MAE and their rankings of influencing factors among different regions in Tibet
地区 | R2 | MAE | 排序1 | 排序2 | 排序3 | 排序4 | 排序5 | 排序6 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
拉萨市 | 0.98 | 50.84 | G1 | D6 | B2 | G3 | A1 | D2 |
昌都地区 | 0.96 | 1.94 | A1 | D6 | G1 | B2 | G2 | D3 |
山南地区 | 0.95 | 3.36 | D3 | B2 | A1 | D6 | G1 | D1 |
日喀则地区 | 0.97 | 3.53 | D6 | G1 | D3 | F1 | B2 | A1 |
那曲地区 | 0.92 | 0.60 | C | A1 | B1 | B2 | F1 | D6 |
阿里地区 | 0.98 | 0.30 | D6 | G1 | D3 | B2 | F1 | D1 |
林芝地区 | 0.87 | 1.16 | G1 | D6 | F1 | F2 | D8 | A2 |
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