Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (9): 1261-1269.doi: 10.11821/xb201109011

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Response to Climate Change and Prediction of Runoff in the Source Region of Yellow River

LI Lin1,2, SHEN Hongyan1,2, DAI Sheng1,2, XIAO Jianshe2, SHI Xinghe1,2   

  1. 1. Qinghai Climate Centre, Xining 810001, China;
    2. Qinghai Key Laboratory of Disaster Preventing and Reducing, Xining 810001, China
  • Received:2011-06-14 Revised:2011-07-12 Online:2011-09-20 Published:2011-09-20
  • Supported by:

    Climate Change Science Foundation No. CCSF2010-05;No. CCSF2011-01

Abstract: The hydrological and meteorological data of the source region of Yellow River from 1956 to 2010 and future climate scenarios from regional climate model (PRECIS) during 2010-2020 are used to analyze the flow variations and revealing the climate causes, and to predict the variation trend for future flows. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. 1) Annual mean flow shows a decreasing trend in recent 50 years in the source region of Yellow River, and there are periods of 5a, 8a, 15a, 22a and 42a. 2) The precipitation decrease due to the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon as well as the increasing evaporation and the degenerating frozen soil in global warming are the climate origin of decreasing flow. 3) Based on the regional climate model PRECIS prediction, the flows in the source region of Yellow River are likely to decrease in the next 20 years.

Key words: climate change, surface water resource, monsoon, frozen soil, climate model, the source region of Yellow River