Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2007, Vol. 62 ›› Issue (12): 1277-1286.doi: 10.11821/xb200712004

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Forecasts of Tourist Flow Features in Eco-tourism Area: A Case Study of Yancheng David's Deer Eco-tourism Area

HUANG Zhenfang, YUAN Linwang, YU Zhaoyuan   

  1. College of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
  • Received:2007-01-30 Revised:2007-09-24 Online:2007-12-25 Published:2007-12-25
  • Supported by:

    National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40471050

Abstract:

The number of touris ts is one of the key indexes in measuring the development of eco-tourism area . By s tudying touris t flow and its variation law and by analyzing the flow s eries to predict its trend, s cientific references could be provided for the area's planning, decis ion-making, protection, exploration and operational management. The development of eco-tourism area is subject to the interactions of a number of certainties and uncertainties , which is reflected via obs ervational touris t flow s eries . This paper es tablishes a touris t s erial analys is framework and puts forward its theoretic model. Taking Yancheng eco-tourism area for David's deer in J iangsu Province as a s tudy cas e , the paper applies various mathematic methods to dis compose , readjus t and synthetically forecas t touris t s eries . The Tramo/Seats method is us ed to undertake seasonal regulation analys is for extracting each component of time s eries , hence obtaining functional models at various s cales of long-term trend with s easonal, periodic and irregular variations . Moreover, the internal law of touris t flow fluctuation in eco-tourism area and its correlation between its influenting factors are analyzed, and thus we get the nois e elimination s eries which provides foundation for a forecas t s tudy. The synthetic forecas t results obtained by applying ARIMA model, Winter addition model, Winter multiplication model and Tramo/Seats model indicate an annual average increase of 19.5-3.14 thous and touris ts in the coming two years , coinciding with the former s eries . The differences in forecas t results between each method are relevant to the modeling thoughts and means of realization, this paper collects various methods to render forecas ts and analys is in order to gain more comprehens ive knowledge about touris t flow fluctuation. Furthermore , the various pos s ible forecas ts could offer references for capacity control, protection and exploration of tourism environmental resources and decis ion-making of tourism management.

Key words: tourist forecast, Tramo/Seats model, ARIMA model, Winters model, Yancheng eco-tourism area for David’s deer