1995—2015年中国人口迁移的时空变化特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb202202010

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the data of usual residence from 2000 and 2010 censuses and 1995 and 2015 micro-censuses and using the method proposed by Abel G. J., this paper estimates the O-D migration flows among prefectural-level administrative units in China for the period 1995-2015. By using the indicators of migration flows and migration rates, and the methods of GIS spatial analysis and community detection in social network analysis, it further reveals the characteristics of spatio-temporal evolution of migration in China since 1995. The results can be summarized as follows. (1) The scale and intensity of migration in China have been increasing, while their differences among regions have been gradually decreasing. This suggests that migration has experienced a gradual transformation from a "low-activity era" including a limited number of regions to a "high-activity era" involving the majority of regions. (2) Six regional types of migration among prefectural-level administrative units, namely, large-scale active net in-migration, small-scale net in-migration, large-scale active net out-migration, small-scale active net out-migration, active balanced migration and inactive migration, are identified. The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the regional types of migration in China indicate that each active migration regional type has been undergoing a change of continuous diffusion, while the inactive migration regional type has seen a significant reduction over time. (3) The spatial patterns of migration are quite different between regions on both sides of "Hu Line", manifested in the fact that the scale and intensity of migration flows on the southeastern side of the line is higher than that on the northwestern side, which means that the "Hu Line" is quite stable and robust in the last 20 years. (4) Patterns of migration flows indicate that while intra-provincial migration has continuously strengthened, inter-provincial migration has exhibited more complicated spatial patterns, mainly reflected in different changing trends of attractiveness to migrants among the three coastal city clusters, and the increasing migration flows within southwest China. As a result of combined effects of inter- and intra-provincial migration flows, the structure of migration flows in China's eastern, central and western regions has been undergoing changes, resulting in the internal differentiation of urban agglomerations and the declining spatial scope under their influence in the coastal areas, Hubei as the single independent "city community" in central China, as well as the relative stability in northwest China and continuous change in southwest China.

Key words: migration, regional type, community, spatio-temporal evolution, China

KE Wenqian, ZHU Yu, CHEN Chen, Guy J. ABEL, LIN Liyue, LIN Jie. Spatio-temporal evolution of migration in China from 1995 to 2015[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(2): 411-425.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Characteristic indexes of migration

	具体指标	计算公式	含义
全国层面的指标	全国总迁移量	$A_Grossflow = ∑ i = 1 320 (O i + I i)$ （2）	度量人口在全国的总迁移数量,数值越大表示人口迁移规模越大。
	全国净迁移量	$A_Netflow = ∑ i = 1 320 I i - O i$ （3）	度量人口在全国的净迁移数量,数值越大表示净迁移规模越大。
	全国总迁移系数	$GR = 100 × ∑ i = 1 320 (O i + I i) / ∑ i = 1 320 (0.5 (P i (t) + P i (t + 5)) - I i)$ （4）	度量人口在全国的总迁移特性,数值越大表示总迁移强度越高。
	全国净迁移系数	$NR = 100 × ∑ i = 1 320 I i - O i / ∑ i = 1 320 (0.5 (P i (t) + P i (t + 5)) - I i)$ （5）	度量人口在全国的净迁移率,数值越大表示净迁移强度越高。
地(市)层面的指标	地(市)总迁移量	$Grossflow = O i + I i$ （6）	度量人口在各城市的总迁移数量,数值越大表示总迁移规模越大。
	地(市)净迁移量	$Netflow = I i - O i$ （7）	度量人口在各城市的净迁移数量,数值越大表示净迁移规模越大。
	地(市)总迁移系数	$G R i = 100 × I i + O i 0.5 (P i (t) + P i (t + 5)) - I i$ （8）	表征迁移的活跃程度,值越高迁移越活跃,反之则不活跃。
	地(市)净迁移系数	$N R i = 100 × I i - O i 0.5 (P i (t) + P i (t + 5)) - I i$ （9）	表征迁移的源汇特征,正值为净迁入,负值为净迁出;正值越大,净迁入强度越高,反之则净迁出强度越高。

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Fig. 2

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Fig. 4

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地域类型	划分标准
非活跃型	GR_i< 1/10
平衡活跃型	GR_i≥ 1/10,且-1/10 < NR_i< 1/10
大规模净迁入活跃型	GR_i≥ 1/10,且NR_i≥ 1/10,且I_i≥ 50万
小规模净迁入活跃型	GR_i≥ 1/10,且NR_i≥ 1/10,且I_i< 50万
大规模净迁出活跃型	GR_i≥ 1/10,且NR_i≤ -1/10,且O_i≥ 50万
小规模净迁出活跃型	GR_i≥ 1/10,且NR_i≤ -1/10,且O_i< 50万

指标/时段	1995—2000年	2000—2005年	2005—2010年	2010—2015年
全国层面的人口迁移指标
全国总迁移量(万人)	10387.8	11167.0	15240.4	15826.6
全国净迁移量(万人)	5853.0	6879.8	9510.4	9136.0
全国总迁移系数(%)	8.98	9.19	12.30	12.46
全国净迁移系数(%)	5.06	5.66	7.68	7.19
地(市)层面人口迁移指标的变异系数
地(市)总迁移量的变异系数	1.44	1.59	1.47	1.40
地(市)净迁移量的变异系数	2.19	2.15	2.02	1.95
地(市)总迁移系数的变异系数	3.48	1.81	1.15	0.92
地(市)净迁移系数的变异系数	5.44	2.74	1.82	1.46

地域类型		净迁入活跃型合计	其中：大规模净迁入活跃型	其中：小规模净迁入活跃型	净迁出活跃型合计	其中：大规模净迁出活跃型	其中：小规模净迁出活跃型	平衡活跃型合计	非活跃型合计
数量占比(%)	1995—2000年	5.63	3.13	2.50	0.63	0.00	0.63	17.81	75.94
	2000—2005年	7.50	6.25	1.25	3.44	1.25	2.19	11.56	77.50
	2005—2010年	8.44	7.50	0.94	8.44	2.50	5.94	35.00	48.13
	2010—2015年	7.51	6.88	0.63	8.06	2.50	6.56	38.13	45.31
迁入人口占比(%)	1995—2000年	41.77	38.24	3.53	0.14	0.00	0.14	24.41	33.67
	2000—2005年	58.57	57.78	0.79	0.56	0.33	0.23	12.25	28.62
	2005—2010年	61.05	60.42	0.63	1.55	0.56	0.99	21.47	15.94
	2010—2015年	55.11	54.86	0.25	1.39	0.56	0.83	26.27	17.23
迁出人口占比(%)	1995—2000年	4.05	3.33	0.72	1.20	0.00	1.20	20.61	74.14
	2000—2005年	7.23	7.08	0.15	8.89	4.87	4.02	14.15	69.74
	2005—2010年	7.10	6.92	0.18	14.19	8.10	6.09	32.97	45.74
	2010—2015年	7.68	7.57	0.11	14.99	8.25	6.74	32.77	44.56

时段	东侧	西侧	跨越东西两侧	全国
1995—2000年	91.30	3.44	5.26	100
2000—2005年	94.45	3.10	2.45	100
2005—2010年	92.39	3.19	4.43	100
2010—2015年	91.62	3.49	4.90	100

时段	西北—东南	东南—西北	合计
1995—2000年	39.94	60.06	100
2000—2005年	49.32	50.68	100
2005—2010年	53.02	46.98	100
2010—2015年	59.29	40.71	100

Spatio-temporal evolution of migration in China from 1995 to 2015

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