Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (9): 2174-2186.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202109010

• The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Green Development • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Quantitative evaluation of the effects of climate change on cereal yields of Tibet during 1993-2017

DING Rui1,2(), SHI Wenjiao1,2()   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2020-06-20 Revised:2021-03-10 Online:2021-09-25 Published:2021-11-25
  • Contact: SHI Wenjiao E-mail:dingrui_1998@163.com;shiwj@lreis.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20040301);Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA20010202);Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA23100202);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771111);Youth Innovation Promotion Association, Chinese Academy of Sciences(2018071)

Abstract:

Climate change, which can lead to environmental problems, has become a global concern, especially in the Tibetan Plateau. However, there are few studies on quantitative assessment of climate change on agricultural crops in the Tibetan Plateau. We used meteorological data and yearbook statistical data to assess the impact of climate change on cereal yields of Tibet. Three types of statistical models were selected, including fixed effect model, first-difference model and linear de-trend model. We analyzed the impacts of climate change (minimum temperature, precipitation, growing degree days, and solar radiation) on cereal yields at the county, city, and autonomous region scales in Tibet from 1993 to 2017. The results showed that the sensitivity of cereal production to temperature (minimum temperature and growing degree days) was greater than that to precipitation and solar radiation. The joint impacts of climate variables were positive, but the sensitivity and significance of different regions were different. Except for the negative impact of growing degree days on Lhasa, the impacts of minimum temperature, precipitation and solar radiation were positive on all cities. The impacts of climate trends on the cereal yields in Tibet Autonomous Region were positive and the results of different models were concentrated in the range of 1.5% to 4.8%. Among the three types of models, the fixed effect model performed best in robustness, and the linear de-trend model was better than the first-difference model. After we add the interaction between different climate variables, the robustness of the first-difference model decreased. Our study could help implement more spatially targeted agricultural adaptation measures to cope with the impact of climate change on the agricultural ecosystem of the Tibetan Plateau.

Key words: Tibetan Plateau, climate change, statistical model, cereal, yields