Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (9): 1983-1995.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202009012

• Land Use and Resources Development • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Spatial simulation of "Grain to Green Program" implementation in a typical region based on agent-based model

YANG Weishi1(), DAI Erfu2(), ZHENG Du3,4, DONG Yuxiang1, YIN Le3,4, MA Liang2,4, WANG Junxiong5, PAN Lihu6, QIN Shipeng6   

  1. 1. School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China
    2. Lhasa Plateau Ecosystem Research Station, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    3. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    5. School of Geography and Tourism, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710119, China
    6. College of Computer Science and Technology, Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, Taiyuan 030024, China
  • Received:2019-01-21 Revised:2020-04-24 Online:2020-09-25 Published:2020-11-25
  • Contact: DAI Erfu;
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571098);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41530749);Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA19040304);National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFC1502903);National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFC1508805);Key Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-4)


Landuse change is an essential driving force of global climate change. Dynamic simulations are helpful for understanding and explaining the changing rules and characteristics of the land system. The "Grain to Green Program" (GTGP) is a critical contributing factor to landuse change in China's mountainous areas. Presently, the deficiency of integrated social and spatial approaches in the simulation of the "GTGP" limits the spatial accuracy of the social benefits simulation and its subsequent research. The accurate simulation of the "GTGP", by combining social and spatial approaches, can provide scientific evidence for the completion of this project. Taking Tongdu Town, Dongchuan district in Yunnan province as the research area, this study identified three kinds of agents: farmers, farmer households, and the government based on census, geographical information and field survey data. In addition, this research constructed a regional spatial simulation of the "GTGP" implementation based on agent-based model. It conducted spatial simulations of Tongdu Town from 2011 to 2015, including the annual income of farmer households, the willingness of farmer households and the government towards the program, and the spatial processes implementation of the "GTGP". The results showed that the implementation of the "GTGP" was mainly related to the slope, the traffic, and the income of farmer households. Specifically, 81.47% of the "GTGP" program conducted in this areas was on slopes of 25°-30°, and 56.37% of them was 0-2 km away from the road with convenient traffic conditions, and the proportion of the "GTGP" areas with low annual income of farmers was relatively high. The correlation between "GTGP" areas and soil fertility was low. The implementation of the project significantly enhanced the revenue of the study area, with an average household income increase of 1475 yuan from 2010 to 2015. The spatial accuracy of the simulation results was 91.12%. The spatial simulation methods constructed in this study can provide references for the implementation of the "GTGP" in other regions, which can contribute to applications of ecological protection and targeted poverty alleviation programs in China.

Key words: Grain to Green Program, agent-based model, land use, Tongdu Town, mountainous areas