Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2018, Vol. 73 ›› Issue (7): 1214-1225.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201807003

• Theoretical Frontiers • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Geographical patterns and environmental change risks in terrestrial areas of the Belt and Road

WU Shaohong1,2(),LIU Lulu1,2,LIU Yanhua1,2(),GAO Jiangbo1,DAI Erfu1,2,FENG Aiqing3   

  1. 1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
    2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2017-08-28 Online:2018-07-25 Published:2018-07-13
  • Supported by:
    Key Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41530749;Scientific Research Cultivation Project of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS: The Decision Support Research of the Belt and Road Initiative


Construction of the Belt and Road, an advocacy of China to promote win-win international cooperation in the new era, aims at building green, healthy, intellectual and peaceful Silk Road and ensuring joint development with the people of the countries along the Belt and Road. Systematic analysis on environmental characteristics, evolutionary tendency and future risk pattern is a scientific fundamental of sustainable development for the construction. Based on remote sensing monitoring and statistical analysis, this paper studies spatial-temporal characteristics of climate, topography, soil, hydrology, vegetation cover and production of terrestrial ecosystems. Taking the methodology of the classical integrated natural regionalization, the region is delineated into 9 sub-regions: Central and Eastern Europe, Mongolia and Russia, Central and Western Asia, Southeastern Asia, Pakistan, Bangladesh-India-Myanmar, Eastern China, Northwestern China and Tibetan Plateau. By combining modeling simulation with scenario projections, natural disaster assessment methodology is used to assess the risk of abrupt extreme events such as heat waves, droughts and floods in the next 30 years. And trend-baseline comparison method is applied to assess the risk of gradual change events in macro-ecosystems, food production, etc. Results show that, on the basis of the regional framework, the western Eurasia would show a warming trend; both sides of Tibetan Plateau are in high temperature and heat waves risk; cold-wet region of central and eastern Europe in high drought risk; monsoon area of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar as well as eastern China in high risk of flooding; the desert margin areas in high ecological fragile risk; the middle and low latitude areas in high risk of grain production.

Key words: the Belt and Road, geographical patterns, environmental change, risks