Abstract:

Examining the CO₂ emissions by country in the future whether the mitigation plans are implemented or not, as well as their comparison with INDCs, is important to promote the ambition and cooperation on global long-term goal of climate change. A dynamic model of CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion is established based on statistical analysis between economy and energy development using the latest data from the World Bank and International Energy Agency. Extending and planning scenarios are designed according to whether there exist additional and explicit efforts to mitigate climate change. Then annual CO₂ emissions during 2016-2060 for the European Union, the United States, China and India are simulated and compared with INDCs respectively, from which three main conclusions are derived. (1) In planning scenario China will achieve its INDCs. For detail, the CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP in China will be 63.6% lower than the level of 2005 and the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption will increase to 24.7%. Besides, China will reach the emission peak 11277±643 Mt CO₂ in 2030, which is 10 years earlier and almost 3000 Mt CO₂ lower than the peak of extending scenario. (2) In planning scenario, the CO₂ emissions of EU and US will significantly decrease and the growth rate of India will slow down, which makes EU and India achieve their INDCs likely but US still has a gap around 300 Mt CO₂. (3) INDCs are ambitious for all countries, especially for China and US. However, making further efforts on global warming mitigation to control the temperature rise below 2 ℃ or even 1.5 ℃, which requires the developed countries to play an important role on policy, technique and finance, including promoting carbon capture and storage technique, achieving negative growth of CO₂ emissions, and providing support for developing countries.

Key words: carbon dioxide, emission variation, INDCs