气候变化和人类活动对耕地格局变化的贡献归因综述

doi:10.11821/dlxb201509009

Abstract

Abstract:

It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal changes of cropland in the fields of climate change and land use change. Relationships between spatial-temporal cropland changes and driving forces were studied at qualitative aspects in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal changes of cropland need to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to temporal-spatial cropland changes at quantitative aspects, e.g. model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. The progresses of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions were introduced. However, there were four defects in assessing the contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. Moreover, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Meanwhile, we concluded a clue about quantitative approaches to assess the contributions from the synthetical aspect to specific driving forces. Besides, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.

Key words: climate change, human activities, contribution, quantitative, cropland pattern

Xiaoli SHI, Wenjiao SHI. Identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes: A review[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(9): 1463-1476.

Figures/Tables 1

Tab. 1

Methods for identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland change

方法	研究区	研究时段	模型或参数	文献出处
模型分析法	中国	2000-2005年	CLUE-S、Dinamica EGO	高志强等, 2012^[6]
	欧洲	2000-2050年	ROIMPEL、SFARMMOD	Audsley等, 2006^[7]
	全球	2000-2080年	AEZ、BLS	Tubiello等, 2007^[8]
	越南	2007-2030年	CLUE、MAGNET	Rutten等, 2014^[9]
数理统计法	牙买加岛	1942-2010年	Logistic回归	Newman等, 2014^[10]
	美国密西西比河平原	1938-2010年	逐步Logistic回归	Schweizer等, 2014^[11]
	中国内蒙太仆寺旗	2008-2009年	Logistic回归	郝海广等, 2010^[12]
	中国江苏省	2000-2008年	主成分分析、一般线性回归	Du等, 2014^[13]
	巴西亚马逊地区	2001-2012年	面板回归-固定效应模型	Gollnow等, 2014^[14]
	中国浙江富阳市	1999-2006年	随机效应模型、固定效应模型	Zhong等, 2011^[15]
	爱尔兰	1993-2007年	随机效应模型、空间自回归随机效应模型	Upton等, 2014^[16]
	中国环渤海区域	2010年	线性回归模型、空间滞后模型、空间误差模型、地理加权回归模型	吴莉等, 2014^[17]
	中国江西省	1988-2005年	土地用途转移驱动机理模型	战金艳等, 2010^[18]
	中国	1996-2011年	STIRPAT模型	张乐勤等, 2014^[19]
框架分析法	瑞士	1930-2000年	系统定义—系统分析—系统综合框架	Hersperger等, 2009^[20]
框架分析法	葡萄牙、瑞典	1950-2010年	压力—冲突—诱因—触发框架	Beilin等, 2014^[21]
指标评价法	伊朗北部	1967-2002年	土地利用变化面积比率	Kelarestaghi等, 2011^[22]
指标评价法	瑞士阿尔卑斯山区	过去120年	土地利用转换率	Schneeberge等, 2007^[23]
差值比较法	中国	1980-2000年	20世纪80年代生态分区不变	高志强等, 2006^[24]
	萨赫勒地区	1982-2003年	NDVI残差趋势法	Herrmann等, 2005^[25]
	南非地区	1985-2003年	降水利用率、NDVI残差趋势法	Wessels等, 2007^[26]
	中国鄂尔多斯地区	1981-2000年	NPP残差趋势法	许端阳等, 2009^[27]

Tab. 1

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Identifying contributions of climate change and human activities to spatial-temporal cropland changes: A review

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