Abstract:

This paper examines the trend of multiple cropping index (MCI) change in China at national, regional and provincial levels during 1998-2012. Based on the Theil index, it explores the spatio-temporal difference of MCI in China. In addition, a spatial econometric model is used to identify the determinants of the temporal and spatial differences of MCI from the behavior perspective. The results are summarized as follows: (1) From the national perspective, the MCP shows an increasing trend year by year. (2) At the regional level, Northeast China is the fastest growing area in terms of the MCI, whereas the central region is the slowest growing area. The central region has the highest level of MCI, while the northeast region shows the lowest level. (3) According to the Theil index value, the differences of MCI show a narrowing trend, which is mainly attributed to the differences among the four regions. (4) The MCI shows differences among China's 31 provinces, and the gap is great. (5) The proportion of non-agricultural population has a significant negative effect on the MCI, and the proportion of non-agriculture industry, agricultural policy and the per capita operating arable land have significant positive impact on the MCI. Finally, some policies are suggested to raise the level of China's cultivated cropping, such as transfering rural surplus labor, increasing the farmers' income, accelerating the transfer of cultivated land's right of use, form the scale effect of land use, further supporting and benefiting farmers in underdeveloped regions and major grain producing areas, and strengthening the role of the national agricultural policy.

Key words: arable land, land-use intensity, multiple cropping index, food security, Theil index, China