过去2000年亚洲气候变化（PAGES-Asia2k）集成研究进展及展望

doi:10.11821/dlxb201503001

Abstract

Abstract:

The established background and goals of the last 2 millennia climate research network, past global changes (PAGES2K) were introduced, and the distinctive significance of Asia2k in PAGES project was expounded. The main research progresses from PAGES-Asia2k working group and contributions of China to the synthetic climate reconstructions of the last 2000 years were also addressed in this paper. In addition, we analyzed the challenge and key issues during the studies on climate reconstructions over Asia, and discussed the research activities in the future work. Asia is an ideal area to conduct synthesis studies on the climate changes for the past 2000 years due to its long history and abundant proxy types with a high time-resolution; however, at present, the related research work is still in its infancy. The recent progresses showed that during the past 1200 years there was a warmer period (830-1220), a colder period (1340-1880), and a rapid warming period (the 20th century). However, the climate of Asia is characterized by various types, complicated process changing and large regional differences. Thus, the future work of this project will focus on the following topics: developing the new methodologies for climate change reconstructions to improve the reliabilities of reconstructed results in individual sites (regions) and the temporal-spatial resolutions, data coverage for the whole continent; developing the PAGES-Asia2k proxy climate database for synthesis study to reconstruct the regional temperature series and spatial patterns of wet and dry changes; furthermore, studying the mechanism and impact of climate change and its adaptation at regional scale.

Key words: climate changes, synthesis study, the past 2000 years, Asia

Quansheng GE, Jingyun ZHENG, Zhixin HAO. PAGES synthesis study on climate changes in Asia over the last 2000 years: Progresses and perspectives[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(3): 355-363.

Figures/Tables 3

References 59

[1]	PAGES. Science Plan and Implementation Strategy (IGBP Report No.57). Stockholm: IGBP Secretariat, 2009: 67.
[2]	Alverson K, Bradley R S, Pedersen T F.Paleoclimate, Global Change and the Future. Berlin: Springer Verlag, 2003: 220.
[3]	Jones P D, Mann M E.Climate over past millennia. Reviews of Geophysics, 2004, 42(2): 1-42.
[4]	Jones P, Briffa K, Osborn T et al. High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: A review of current status and future prospects. The Holocene, 2009, 19(1): 3-49.
[5]	Mann M E, Bradley R S, Hughes M K.Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters, 1999, 26: 759-762.
[6]	Esper J, Cook E R, Schweingruber F H.Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science, 2002, 295: 2250-2253.
[7]	Cook E R, Esper J, D'Arrigo R. Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere land temperature variability over the past 1000 years. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2004, 23(20-22): 2063-2074.
[8]	Moberg A, Sonechkin D M,Holmgren K et al. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature, 2005, 433: 613-617.
[9]	Hegerl G C, Crowley T J, Hyde W T et al. Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries. Nature, 2006, 440: 1029-1032.
[10]	D’Arrigo R, Wilson R, Jacoby G. On the long-term context for late twentieth century warming. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2006, 111: D03103. doi: 10.1029/2005JD006352.
[11]	Osborn T J, Briffa K R.The spatial extent of 20th-century warmth in the context of the past 1200 years. Science, 2006, 311: 841-844.
[12]	Loehle C.A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-tree ring proxies. Energy & Environment, 2007, 18: 1049-1058.
[13]	Mann M E, Zhange Z H, Hughes M K et al. Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2008, 105: 13252-13257.
[14]	Mann M E, Zhange Z H,Rutherford S et al. Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and medieval climate anomaly. Science, 2009, 326(5957): 1256-1260.
[15]	Ljungqvist F C, Fredrik C.A New Reconstruction of temperature variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere during the Last Two Millennia. Geografiska Annaler Series A: Physical Geography, 2010, 92(3): 339-351.
[16]	Mcshane B B, Wyner A J.A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: Are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable. Annals of Applied Statistics, 2011, 5(1): 5-44.
[17]	Christiansen B, Ljungqvist F C.The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: Reconstructions of low-frequency variability. Climate of the Past, 2012, 8(2): 765-786.
[18]	PAGES 2k Consortium. Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nature Geoscience, 2013, 6: 339-346.
[19]	IPCC. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2001: 101-181.
[20]	IPCC. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change., Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2007: 466-482.
[21]	IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA Cambridge University Press, 2013: 383-464.
[22]	PAGES. Science Plan and Implementation Strategy (IGBP Report No.57). Stockholm: IGBP Secretariat, 2009: 67.
[23]	Kaufman D S.PAGES2k Consortium. A community-driven framework for climate reconstructions. Transactions American Geophysical Union, 2014, 95(40): 361-362.
[24]	Anchukaitis K J, Mckay N.PAGES2k: Advances in climate field reconstructions. Pages Magazine, 2014, 22(2): 7.
[25]	Takeshi N, Masaki S.Report on the First Asia2k Regional Workshop. PAGES News, 2011, 19(1): 38.
[26]	Masaki S, Shi F, Takeshi N et al. 2nd Workshop of the PAGES Asia2k Working Group. PAGES News, 2012, 20(2): 93.
[27]	Ge Q S, Hao Z X, Shao X M et al. Understanding and reconstructing the Asian climate of the last 2000 years. Pages Magazine, 2014, 22(2): 8.
[28]	Cook E R, Krusic P J,Anchukaitis K J et al. Tree-ring reconstructed summer temperature anomalies for temperate East Asia since 800 C.E. Climate Dynamics, 2013, 41: 2957-2972.
[29]	Ge Q S, Hao Z X,Zheng J Y et al. Temperature changes over the past 2000 yr in China and comparison with the Northern Hemisphere. Climate of the Past, 2013, 9(3): 1153-1160.
[30]	Cook E R, Anchukaitis K J, Buckley B M et al. Asian monsoon failure and megadrought during the last millennium. Science, 2010, 328: 486-489.
[31]	Ummenhofer C C, D'Arrigo R D, Anchukaitis K J et al. Links between Indo-Pacific climate variability and drought in the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. Climate Dynamics, 2013, 40: 1319-1334.
[32]	Yang F M, Shi F, Kang S Y et al. Comparison of the dryness/wetness index in China with the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2013, 114(3/4): 553-566.
[33]	Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixin et al. State-of-the-arts in the study of climate changes over China for the past 2000 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(9): 1248-1258.
	[葛全胜, 郑景云, 郝志新等. 过去2000年中国气候变化研究的新进展. 地理学报, 2014, 69(9): 1248-1258.]
[34]	Nakatsuka T, Tada R, Kawamura K.Editorial: How does research in Japan contribute to the global body of paleoscientific knowledge? PAGES News, 2012, 20(2): 59.
[35]	Kwak J H, Lee K S, Lim S S et al. Historical responses of Quercus variabilis growth to environmental changes in Southern Korea: Evidence from tree ring width and δ13C. Journal of the Korean Society for Applied Biological Chemistry, 2013, 56(5): 583-590.
[36]	Wright W E, Guan B T, Tseng Y H et al. Reconstruction of the springtime East Asian Subtropical Jet and Western Pacific pattern from a millennial-length Taiwanese tree-ring chronology. Climate Dynamics, 2014: 1-15.
[37]	Wiles G C, Solomina O, D'Arrigo R et al. Reconstructed summer temperatures over the last 400 years based on larch ring widths: Sakhalin Island, Russian Far East. Climate Dynamics, 2014: 1-9.
[38]	Davi N, Jacoby G, Fang K et al. Reconstructing drought variability for Mongolia based on a large-scale tree ring network: 1520-1993. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 2011, 115: D22103. doi: 10.1029/2010JD013907.
[39]	Zhang T, Yuan Y, He Q et al. Development of tree-ring width chronologies and tree-growth response to climate in the mountains surrounding the Issyk-Kul Lake, Central Asia. Dendrochronologia, 2014, 32(3): 230-236.
[40]	Bräuning A.Dendroecology in Asia. Trees, 2013, 27(2): 341-342.
[41]	Borgaonkar H P, Sikder A B, Ram S.High altitude forest sensitivity to the recent warming: A tree-ring analysis of conifers from Western Himalaya, India. Quaternary International, 2011, 236(1): 158-166.
[42]	Buckley B M, Anchukaitis K J,Penny D et al. Climate as a contributing factor in the demise of Angkor, Cambodia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010, 107(15): 6748-6752.
[43]	Pumijumnong N, Eckstein D.Reconstruction of pre-monsoon weather conditions in northwestern Thailand from the tree-ring widths of Pinus merkusii and Pinus kesiya. Trees, 2011, 25(1): 125-132.
[44]	Pumijumnong N.Dendrochronology in Southeast Asia. Trees, 2013, 27(2): 343-358.
[45]	Ahmed M, Palmer J, Khan N et al. The dendroclimatic potential of conifers from northern Pakistan. Dendrochronologia, 2011, 29(2): 77-88.
[46]	Sano M, Ramesh R, Sheshshayee M S et al. Increasing aridity over the past 223 years in the Nepal Himalaya inferred from a tree-ring δ18O chronology. The Holocene, 2011, 22(7): 809-817.
[47]	Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun.Progress on the study of the forcing and impacts of the warm periods in China during the past 2000 years. Geographical Research, 2012, 31(4): 769.
	[葛全胜, 郑景云. 过去2000年全球典型暖期的形成机制及其影响研究进展. 地理研究, 2012, 31(4): 769.]
[48]	Zhang De'er. A Compendium of Chinese Meteorological Records of the Last 3,000 Years. Nanjing: Jiangsu Education Press, 2004: 1-3666.
	[张德二. 中国三千年气象记录总集. 南京: 江苏教育出版社, 2004: 1-3666.]
[49]	Zheng Jingyun, Hao Zhixin, Di Xiaochun.A study on the establishment and application environmental change database during historical times. Geographical Research, 2002, 21(2): 146-154.
	[郑景云, 郝志新, 狄小春. 历史环境变化数据库的建设与应用. 地理研究, 2002, 21(2): 146-154.]
[50]	Wang S W, Wen X Y, Luo Y et al. Reconstruction of temperature series of China for the last 1000 years. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2007, 52(23): 3272-3280.
[51]	Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, Fang X Q et al. Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River, China, during the past 2000 years. The Holocene, 2003, 13(6): 933-940.
[52]	Yao TD, Masson-Delmotte V, Gao J et al. A review of climatic controls on δ18O in precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau: Observations and simulations. Reviews of Geophysics, 2013, 51(4): 525-548.
[53]	Zheng J Y, Wang W C, Ge Q S et al. Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the past 1500 years. Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 2006, 17(3): 579-592.
[54]	Yang B, Qin C, Wang J L et al. A 3,500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2014, 111(8): 2903-2908.
[55]	Ge Q S, Zheng J Y, Hao Z X et al. Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference. Geophysical Research Letters, 2010, 37: L03703.
[56]	Shao X M, Xu Y, Yin Z Y et al. Climatic implications of a 3585-year tree-ring width chronology from the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2010, 29: 2111-2122.
[57]	Ge Quansheng.The Climate Change in China during the Past Dynasties. Beijing: Science Press, 2011: 61-665.
	[葛全胜. 中国历朝气候变化. 北京: 科学出版社, 2011: 61-665.]
[58]	Chu G Q, Sun Q,Wang X H et al. Seasonal temperature variability during the past 1600 years recorded in historical documents and varved lake sediment profiles from northeastern China. The Holocene, 2012, 22(7): 785-792.
[59]	Hao Z X, Zheng J Y, Ge Q S et al. Winter temperature variations over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736 AD. Climate of the Past, 2012, 8(3): 1023-1030.

国家	中国	巴基斯坦	蒙古	俄罗斯	尼泊尔	不丹	日本	吉尔吉斯斯坦	其他	合计
年表数量	73	33	28	26	16	13	13	12	15	229
>1000年的年表	19	6	2	0	1	0	1	2	0	31

PAGES synthesis study on climate changes in Asia over the last 2000 years: Progresses and perspectives

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 3

References 59

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

[1]	XU Yang, LI Xiufen, GE Quansheng, HAO Zhixin. Effect of meteorological drought on cotton yield in Central Asia [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(9): 2338-2352.
[2]	TAN Zhenghua, GONG Yuanfa. Characteristics of the northern marginal zone of the Asian summer monsoon and the influence of planetary waves in middle-high latitudes on its variation [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(5): 1120-1137.
[3]	ZHANG Sheng, WANG Liehui. A study on shipping connectivity in the Asian Mediterranean [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2022, 77(10): 2616-2632.
[4]	LIANG Xiao, YANG Pingguo, YAO Jiao, ZHANG Peng, ZHANG Jianhui, SUN Pengfei, AO Hong. Environmental magnetic record of East Asian summer monsoon variability on the Chinese Loess Plateau since 16 ka BP [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(3): 539-549.
[5]	MA Haitao, SUN Zhan. Comprehensive urbanization level and its dynamic factors of five Central Asian countries [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(2): 367-382.
[6]	ZHANG Fengju, XUE Bin, YU Ge. Lake level changes of central-northern Eurasia and their indicative significance for paleoclimate since Last Glacial Maximum [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(11): 2673-2684.
[7]	GE Quansheng, ZHU Huiyi. Changes of the physical and human geographical environment in China during the past 2000 years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(1): 3-14.
[8]	LI Luqi, WU Qiyan, LIU Kewen, LIANG Shuangbo, QIAN Chaofeng. Spatial evolution of Eurasian land and sea transport accessibility from the historical perspective [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(4): 804-819.
[9]	WANG Xiaoru, TANG Zhiguang, WANG Jian, WANG Xin, WEI Junfeng. Monitoring of snowline altitude at the end of melting season in High Mountain Asia based on MODIS snow cover products [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(3): 470-484.
[10]	MA Teng, GE Yuejing, HUANG Yu, LIU Xiaofeng, LIN Rongping, HU Zhiding. Geo-economic relations of China and the US in Northeast Asia: An analysis based on flow data [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(10): 2076-2091.
[11]	HE Liye, CHENG Shanjun, MA Ning, GUO Jun. Intraseasonal evolution of the key areas of precipitation in the Haihe River Basin and quantitative analysis of its associated atmospheric circulation during summer [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(1): 41-52.
[12]	RUAN Hongwei,YU Jingjie. Changes in land cover and evapotranspiration in the five Central Asian countries from 1992 to 2015 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1292-1304.
[13]	GUO Chao,MENG Hongwei,MA Yuzhen,LI Dandan,HU Caili,LIU Jierui,LUO Congwen,WANG Kai. Environmental variations recorded by chemical element in the sediments of Lake Yamzhog Yumco on the southern Tibetan Plateau over the past 2000 years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1345-1362.
[14]	LU Fuzhi,LU Huayu. A high-resolution grid dataset of air temperature and precipitation for Qinling-Daba Mountains in central China and its implications for regional climate [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(5): 875-888.
[15]	LIANG Yutian,ZHOU Zhengke,LIU Yi. Relationship between the location choices of Chinese outbound enterprises and overseas Chinese networks: The case study of Southeast Asia [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2018, 73(8): 1449-1461.