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    Population and Urban Studies
  • Population and Urban Studies
    ZHAO Ziyu,WEI Ye,YANG Ran,WANG Shijun,ZHU Yu
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    Simulations based on spatial interaction models have been widely applied to understand the strength of relationships between geographical elements, but many issues remain unclear and deviations between actual and simulated results have often been seriously underestimated. A high-precision Baidu migration process combined with mass relationships is applied in this study and enables the generation of regression coefficients of gravity model based on programmed large-scale regression simulations. A series of accuracy assessments are then developed for 2015 empirical projection daily regression coefficients that can be applied to Chinese spring interprovincial mobile gravity model variables as well as spatiotemporal research that utilizes regression coefficients within a heterogeneity research model. This approach also enables the error within the gravity model to be assessed in terms of floating population simulations. The results of this analysis lead to a number of clear conclusions, including the fact that parameter calibration complexity for the Chinese population mobility gravity model is reflected in the degree of influence asymmetry within spatial object interaction variables, and that the spatial heterogeneity of the variable regression coefficient increases in two distinct fashions. The first of these increases has to do with the overall influence of specific variables, including the fact that differences between proxies tend to be higher than inflow-outflow characteristics. In contrast, the second set of increases is related to economic levels, industrial scales, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and public service facilities. In this latter case, two-way population flow exerts a more profound influence on results and thus the scope of possible explanations for phenomena is more extensive. The regression coefficient for the existence of positive and negative proxy variables therefore relates to differences in spatial heterogeneity, including at the city level, and also assumes that floating population gravity model regression coefficients ignore spatiotemporal changes in the heterogeneity coefficient. This leads to spatial differences in estimated results and thus convergence trends, but further enables the identification of anisotropic interactions in extension space. The second main conclusion of this research is that the national scale population flow distance attenuation coefficient was 1.970 during the spring of 2015, while at the level of prefectural administrative units and given population outflow, the range encapsulated by this coefficient fell between 0.712 (Zhumadian) and 7.699 (Urumqi). Data also reveal a population inflow coefficient of 0.792 for this year that ranged as high as 8.223 in both Sanya and Urumqi. Population flow simulation results using the gravity model and including Baidu migration measured flow data were also subject to significant error. Third, the results of this analysis reveal a total fitting error of 85.54% in weighted absolute mean; the spatial interaction effect within this is responsible for a maximum error of 86.09% in actual and simulated flows, while relative outflow force and attractiveness encompass 57.73% and 49.34% of model error, respectively. These results show that the spatial interaction effect remains most difficult to model in terms of current factors.

  • Population and Urban Studies
    GU Hengyu,SHEN Tiyan,LIU Ziliang,MENG Xin
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    According to previous studies, not only does the conditional gravity model based on ordinary least squares often bring about poor fitting of migration flows in reality, but also there exists overdispersion in the extended Poisson gravity model. Simultaneously, network autocorrelation usually exists in population migration data (e.g., the spatial interaction among migration flows). The problems mentioned above result in biased estimation. In order to capture network autocorrelation and deal with the issue of overdispersion, we build an eigenvector spatial filtering negative binomial gravity model (ESF NBGM) based on the data of 1% national population sample survey in 2015, to analyze the driving mechanism of interprovincial population migration flows in China. The results are as follows: (1) Positive spatial spillover effect exists in interprovincial population migration flows, and ESF can capture network autocorrelation in data, so as to reduce the estimated deviation of the model. Furthermore, eigenvectors ranking top 1.4% can properly interpret the spatial pattern of high network autocorrelation in data. (2) There exists overdispersion in China's interprovincial migration flows. Considering this problem, a negative binomial regression model is more suitable for the estimation of driving mechanism for population migration, together with statistical enhancement. (3) Network autocorrelation leads to overestimation of distance variables and underestimation of non-distance variables. The results of the improved model reveal that: chief factors the affect driving mechanism are regional population characters, social network, economic development and education level. Meanwhile, living environment and road network gradually become one of the most crucial pulling factors that influence migration flows. (4) Compared to previous studies, social network (i.e. migration stock) plays a more significant role in population migration flows, while the impact of spatial distance keeps weakening.

  • Population and Urban Studies
    ZHANG Yanji,QIN Bo,ZHU Chunwu
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    When the concept of 'Narrow Road, Intensive Grid, and Open Space' commenced to be popularized in Chinese urban planning, some citizens had serious doubts about whether permeable environment could cause crime and unsafety or not. Theoretically, which one was safer, open or enclosed space? Which one was more critical on safety, design or management? What were the differences between factors influencing crime behavior and safety perception? All these academic debates were not resolved in criminal geography. This paper discussed how built environment around communities influenced crime behavior and sense of security on the basis of social investigations, criminal cases and geographic data in Beijing. Among them, the subjective evaluation and objective indicators were introduced to measure features of physical environment. On the other hand, crime occurrence was illustrated by both the criminal recalls and crime cases on record. This research indicated that the theory of which was better open or enclosed space actually depended on its space dimension. An enclosed community could make the residents feel safer and restrain low-dimensional crime activities, yet it caused the 'crowding-out' effect of crime activities. Therefore, 'Door closing' was unable to decrease crime rate essentially. Secondly, the influencing mechanism of crime behavior was quiet different from safety perception. Open space with intensive social activities, mixed urban function and high permeability had positive effects on sense of security. However, it allowed criminals to have more targets and increase their survival possibility which contributed to the occurrence of crimes. Thirdly, compared with the 'hard' section of physical environment, the 'soft' section of management and maintenance played a more important role in improving safety perception. Meanwhile, it could decrease the number of criminal activities in a higher spatial dimension. In summary, planners and governors should pay more attention to environmental maintenance and management as well as urban design in order to pursue crime prevention.

  • Population and Urban Studies
    XU Zhihua,LIU Kaizhi
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    In the era of globalization, the urban question is increasingly being posed in the form of a scale question. Scale theory provides a new perspective for analyzing various dynamics and their influences on urban development. After the reunification, how the government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) interacts with the actors at various scales and carries out state rescaling are the key to exploring the issue of urban development and governance in Hong Kong. This paper examines the entire planning process of the Hong Kong Section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link, from project conception, design, to consultation and fund application, to identify the actors at different scales involved in the process, and analyze the modes and consequences of their interaction. This study shows that after the reunification, Hong Kong SAR Government takes the initiative to scale up to expand its hinterland. Intergovernmental institutional cooperation is an important mode of state rescaling for Hong Kong SAR government. Meanwhile, the gradually growing civil society plays an important role in the rescaling of urban development. Local actors use scalar politics to construct discourses and take actions at multiple scales to challenge the government's proposal and trigger a discussion on the project throughout the Hong Kong society. The case study of Hong Kong can deepen the understanding of state rescaling of territorial organizations in the context of institutional transformation and enrich the theoretical connotation of state rescaling. It also helps the central government to better understand the case of Hong Kong and formulate appropriate policies towards it. In addition, as the civil society has gradually emerged in the mainland, the experience and lessons from the interaction between the Hong Kong SAR government and the Hong Kong civil society in this case provide a reference for the central government.

  • Population and Urban Studies
    YANG Ying,LIN Lin,ZHONG Zhiping,OU Yingying,XU Qian,MENG Meiyun,HAO Shan
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    Due to the increasingly serious public health hazards situation, it is important to explore the pattern of spatial differentiation by evaluating community resilience comprehensively. Empirically, it not only helps to figure out the level of public health and the ability of community to deal with the health hazards, but also promotes health equity and community health governance. As for the theoretical contribution, it is innovative to apply community resilience at a micro-scale and public health perspective in China. The study constructs theoretical frameworks of community resilience based on social-ecosystem resilience theory in the basic unit of Guangzhou's communities. A community resilience evaluation model with gray correlation TOPSIS method is established, which contains 23 indicators and 32 variables from five dimensions, including natural environment, built environment, social capital, economic capital and political institution. Conclusions are drawn as follows: Firstly, the community resilience of Guangzhou was identified into five ranks (Excellent, Good, Average, Poor and Fail), and the overall structure turns out to be an olive-shaped pattern, while the community resilience for the urban area is superior to the rural communities. Secondly, the spatial features of community resilience show the trend of gradient decline (from center to edges, from middle-east to west and from south to north). It is indicated that subsystems differ significantly in spatial pattern while communities in all ranks are clustered geographically. There are four types of spatial distribution, which are "double centers type", "core-periphery type", "extensive dispersion with localized concentrations type", and "edge extension type". Finally, the safe area of public health is distributed in the central and southern parts of the city while the dangerous area is in the west, which should be the focus of the defense area of public health security.

  • Geoeconomics and Regional Development
  • Geoeconomics and Regional Development
    HUANG Yu,GE Yuejing,LIU Xiaofeng
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    Geoeconomics has become one of the most important factors of international relationship since the end of the Cold War. Different nations have formed competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships because of their different natural conditions, resource endowments, and economic structures. Hence, it is important to balance the economic competition and cooperation between nations in the geoeconomic era of heightened economic conflict. This paper aims to explore the rule of competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships between nations by taking China, the USA and Japan as examples, and the recent 10 years (2007-2016) as a study period. As the major powers of the Pacific region, the geoeconomic relationships between China, the USA, and Japan have a strong connection with the development of the Pacific region and even the global economy. This paper builds the concept and measurement of geoeconomic cooperative intensity, inspired by the thought of the Coulomb force of physics. Compared with the previous measure, the method of geoeconomic cooperative intensity exactly portrays the degree of competitive or cooperative geoeconomic relationships between nations owing to its consideration of distance factor, production type factor, as well as the import and export volume. The results show that: (1) The geoeconomic relationship as a whole is more competitive than cooperative between China, the USA and Japan, while almost all the separate results are negative between the three nations. And Japan is more competitive with the other two nations than the competition between China and the USA; (2) In terms of the detailed products types, mineral fuels, vehicles, motors and equipment parts, and mechanical equipment generally determine the characteristics of the geoeconomic relationship among three nations, since these products have far greater influence on the geoeconomic relations than other products; (3) The cooperative intensity of oil resource between China, the USA and Japan is the smallest among all the products. In other words, the oil resource is the most influential product. Therefore, the competition of the overseas oil resource will be a decisive factor in the economic competition among China, the USA and Japan.

  • Geoeconomics and Regional Development
    DONG Suocheng,YANG Yang,LI Fujia,CHENG Hao,LI Jingnan,BILGAEV Alexey,LI Zehong,LI Yu
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    The construction of China-Mongolia-Russia high-speed railway (CMRHSR) is a strategic move to promote inter-connectivity of transportation infrastructure and to build international land transportation corridor among China, Mongolia and Russia. However, a well-planned CMRHSR demands that we accurately clarify the main influencing factors of high-speed railway construction, reveal its influence mechanism and spatial pattern, and formulate targeted prevention and control measures. Therefore, this study analyzes the main factors influencing the construction of the CMRHSR, clarifies its influence mechanism on high-speed railway construction. By establishing an integrated influence index evaluation model (IIIEM), we evaluate the magnitudes of different influencing factors in all research units, and reveal their spatial pattern. We found that economy, society and ecology are the key factors influencing high-speed railway construction. Regions with great economic influence are Zabaykalsky Krai, Republic of Buryatia, and Mongolia due to their underdeveloped economy, slow even negative economic growth, sparsely distributed and declining population, as well as poor transportation, which suggests poor profitability for high-speed railways in the short-term. Regions with great social influence are Mongolia, Zabaykalsky Krai, Republic of Buryatia and Irkutsk Oblast due to the high unemployment rate in Mongolia and relatively low government and residential support because of geopolitical and ecological destruction concerns arising from high-speed railway construction, which reduces the feasibility on the construction of high-speed railway. Regions with great ecological influence are Heilongjiang, Buryat Republic, Irkutsk Oblast, and Zabaykalsky Krai due to their favorable ecological environment and rich biodiversity, which suggests a high ecological destruction risk; regions with great disaster influence is Mongolia due to its frequent disasters, which may increase the difficulty of railway construction. Then, according to the distribution of influencing factors, we propose designs for the east and west CMRHSR and policy suggestions to mitigate impacts on high-speed railway construction. Suggestions include establishing innovative cooperation mode of "high-speed rail for resources and markets" to reduce economic influence; strengthening communication and high-tech propaganda to reduce social influence; setting up buffers and applying high-tech engineering techniques to reduce ecological risk. Some measures are proposed to mitigate construction influence such as establishing joint prevention system of three major ecological risks in China, Mongolia and Russia trans-border areas, and enhancing strategic collaboration and promoting economic integration among the three countries.

  • Geoeconomics and Regional Development
    CHEN Wen,WANG Jue,SUN Wei
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    Under the background of globalization and regional integration, regional cooperation is viewed as a crucial approach to dealing with various challenges in the context of globalization, and likewise as a prerequisite for maintaining the cities' comparative advantages as well as competitiveness. Although different actors involving private enterprises, research agencies and other organizations have jointly participated in the regional organization, and local governments have played dominant roles in the cross-border cooperation by controlling the majority of social resources and assuming the responsibility of managing the economic activities within their jurisdictional areas. By applying the cost-benefit analysis based on the game theory and governmental behavior theory, this paper attempts to put forward three models of intergovernmental cooperation and builds a new theoretical framework to explain how the mutual gains and costs of the cooperative efforts drive the governmental behavior. Then, by focusing on the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, three typical cases of cooperation events, the YRD accessible travel circle (Changsanjiao wuzhang'ai lyuyouquan), Shanghai-Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Anhui expressway (shensuzhewan gaosu gonglu) and the management of Jiangsu-Zhejiang transboundary water pollution are selected to examine the three models of intergovernmental cooperation, namely, win-win model, comparative interest model, and win-lose model. This paper explains different types of cost-benefit, cooperation powers, and behavioral strategies under different cooperation modes. Through tracing the process of cooperation formation and investigating intergovernmental interaction, this paper argues that the cooperative gains and costs significantly influence the governmental behavior, and further shape different models of intergovernmental cooperation. Based on the empirical analysis, this paper suggests that cooperative mechanism including mutual trust mechanism, dialogue and consultation mechanisms, benefit-sharing mechanisms, as well as supervision mechanism should be formed in the further promotion of regional cooperation in the Yangtze River Delta.

  • Geoeconomics and Regional Development
    TU Shuangshuang,LONG Hualou,ZHANG Yingnan,ZHOU Xingying
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    Rural restructuring is an important means of implementing and pushing forward the strategy of rural vitalization. A complete process of rural restructuring usually consists of different stages, including initial period, development period, stabilizing period and stable period. Based on the established theoretical framework of analyzing the process of rural restructuring, by introducing the concepts of rural development index, the intensity of rural restructuring and the contribution rate of rural restructuring, the quantitative research and comparative analysis of the driving factors of rural restructuring process at village scale were carried out in the typical villages in metropolitan suburbs and plain farming areas. The results show that: (1) Since the 1990s, along with the transformation of industrial structure from traditional agriculture to industrial mining and tourism service industry, the socio-economic forms and territorial spatial structure of Huangshandian Village have undergone drastic restructuring, and the process of rural restructuring has experienced the initial stage and the development stage successively, and in a stabilizing stage now. The industrial development of Yangqiao Village has experienced the stages of traditional agricultural leading and concurrent farming production. Since 2000, it has taken on a sign of socio-economic restructuring. Recently, the living space has been reconstructed under the promotion of local governments, but the economic form has not changed significantly. At present, the village is still at a low level of development as a whole. (2) The rapid rural restructuring in Huangshandian Village is the results of combined action of exogenous and endogenous factors. The exogenous factors include market requirement pull, government macro-policy guidance, and so on. The endogenous factors include resources and environment, location conditions, behavioral agent, economic foundation, cultural trait, and so on. The restructuring process of Yangqiao Village is mainly dominated by socio-economic development course including urbanization, industrialization and technological progress as well as some exogenous policies such as "building new countryside" and "increasing vs. decreasing balance" land-use policy. The root cause for its relatively slow restructuring speed is lacking of endogenous development impetus.

  • Geoeconomics and Regional Development
    WANG Liang,LIU Hui
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    There are many achievements on the state evaluation of resources and environmental carrying capacity. Most of the studies use the traditional analysis method together with the "Pressure-State-Response" model. This article first constructs a comprehensive evaluation framework system of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity. Then it builds the "PS-DS-DP" hexagon interactional theory model and divides the carrying capacity into three pairs of interaction forces, namely "Pressure-Support", "Destructiveness-Resilience" and "Degradation-Promotion", which correspond to resources supporting ability, environmental capacity and risk disaster resisting ability, respectively. The negative load of carrying capacity includes pressure, destructiveness and degradation, while support, resilience and promotion represent the positive ones. With the changes of the shape and area of the hexagon caused by the interaction forces, the state of regional resources environmental carrying capacity could be measured. This study figures out that the state value of carrying capacity is equal to the ratio of the positive contribution value to the negative contribution value. The regional load condition shows good if the ratio is over 1, and the bigger the better. Once the ratio is less than 1, it has to be warned. Regional carrying capacity rating standards in this paper are delimited by 4 levels: Ⅰ(≤0.30), Ⅱ(0.30-0.70), Ⅲ(0.70-0.85) and Ⅳ(≥0.85) corresponding to a lower level balance load for a region with an approximate stable state, an unstable state caused by the high speed increasing, an ideal carrying capacity of an approximate stable state, and a full load with the system collapse. A perfect state is not to reach the limit while remaining the system stable. Based on the above theoretical models and the earlier achievements, this research applies the classified-array polygon method to explore the state change of resources environmental carrying capacity of Beijing from 2010 to 2015. According to the general research hypothesis, the increasing population will add to the regional resources pressure. But Beijing's resource pressure has a slight decrease as the city's population grows, which differs from the conclusions that the city was overloaded. The result shows that Beijing is getting close to a perfect state. The state value of carrying capacity was 1.0143 in 2010 and increased to 1.1411 in 2015, suggesting that Beijing's carrying capacity turned better in 2010-2015. Compared to 2010, the negative factor forces became weakened and the positive ones continued to enhance in 2015. With the average rank value achieving 0.7025 in 2015, Beijing reached the optimal load threshold and still had space for further carrying. Finally, these results give a theoretical support for Beijing to control the population within 23 million by 2020.

  • Culture and Tourism Geography
  • Culture and Tourism Geography
    WANG Min,ZHAO Meiting,ZHU Hong
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    As an indispensable part of the city, urban nature is the important material carrier of city memory. Based on the data from web texts, interviews and photo ratings, this paper adopts the method of NVivo analysis to analyze the case of urban rivers in Guangzhou from the perspective of material geography, and discusses the interaction mechanism between the social construction of urban nature and urban memory. The analysis shows that the function of urban natural resources has changed with the development of social and economic conditions, and has evolved through the mutual penetration of human practices and social systems. Specifically, this paper indicates that the social construction of nature, to a great extent, has reflected not only the evolution of urban functions and material forms, but also the way of material utilization and its relationship with urban culture. In addition, the interaction between urban residents and rivers has been a way of cultural production. In this process, urban rivers have been the material carrier of local culture to maintain the sense of place. Moreover, this paper points out that the urban rivers have been an important material field where urban memory is produced by urban residents with their physical practices. In this way, urban memory could be inherited and preserved. From the perspective of material geography, this study highlights the social construction process of natural resources, reconsiders the interactive relationship between human beings and natural resources, and re-thinks the ways for tackling the relations between urban development and natural resources. Accordingly, this paper responds empirically from the perspective of cultural geography from "materialism" to "cultural representation" and then goes back to "re-materialism", as the review of the two core concepts of "material" and "culture". In practical terms, this paper discusses the interaction between urban residents and urban nature, which provides some reference for building a healthy city and for the development of urban reproduction.

  • Culture and Tourism Geography
    WANG Longjie,ZENG Guojun,BI Doudou
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    The development of information and communication technologies (ICT) is reconstructing and reshaping the relationships and inter-connections among different regions in the tourism industry. Existing research has shown that ICT plays a crucial role in the growth of the industry; however, scarce attention has been paid to the spatial spillover effects of ICT. As a result, it is hard to estimate accurately the influence of ICT on growth of tourism industry and the findings in that regard are not wholly convincing. Given the shortcomings mentioned above, the present study focuses on the interactive relationships among ICT infrastructure, ICT consumption and growth of tourism industry; there is a particular emphasis on the spatial spillover effects of ICT. We selected 31 provinces in China as our case region; our aim was to assess spatial differences and spatial clustering across the whole of Chinese mainland. Our data sources included China Statistical Yearbook and China Tourism Yearbook from 2001 to 2014. To determine the global spatial spillover effects of ICT on the growth of tourism industry, we employed the spatial panel Durbin model, using balanced panel data from 2001 to 2014. We obtained the following findings. First, the development of ICT and tourism industry shows a significant spatial agglomeration so that the conventional traditional models may be unable to accurately assess the related effects owing to ignorance of the spatial auto-correlation. Second, ICT infrastructure and ICT consumption have different effects on growth of the tourism industry. The development of ICT infrastructure alone is not certain to promote the growth of that industry, instead, unequal competition among different regions may produce Solow paradox. ICT consumption has both significant positive direct and spatial spillover effects on the growth of tourism industry. Third, capital input, labor input and tourism infrastructure are still important driving forces for industrial growth. However, with the transformative effects of ICT, the spatial spillover effects of capital and labor are insignificant; tourism resources, environment quality, proportion of the service industry, and tourism agglomeration have significant negative spillover effects, which leads to fierce competition among neighboring regions.

  • Culture and Tourism Geography
    WU Rong,HUANG Xu,LIU Ye,LI Zhigang
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    Along with the tremendous reconfiguration of social space in urban China, the place attachment of urbanites to their community or the city may undergo transformation or restructuration, yet has been rarely touched by existing literature. In particular, the measurement and mechanism of the place attachment deserve high attentions, and there is in need of an in-depth empirical study. In this vein, with a case of a typical large city, Guangzhou, this paper explores the dynamics of residents' place attachment, both theoretically and empirically. In details, we first examine the role of various forces such as social dimension (framed by social trust), functional dimension (framed by residential satisfactory to the services and facilities in the neighborhood), and their interactions underlying the making of place attachment. Second, we examine the interrelation between residents' place attachment to various scales, community and city. Third, we compare the place attachment for two groups, local residents and migrants, with respect to the extent of their place attachment and mechanisms. The empirical study includes 23 communities surveyed in Guangzhou. Our sampling strategy, questionnaire and resultant database prove to be representative. It includes the measurement of the degree of place attachment of residents through known Likert scale; then we apply ANOVA analysis by SPSS21.0 and Structural Equation Model by STATA14.0 to test the effects of various factors, such as social trust and residential satisfaction, for different types of urbanites. Our empirical study reveals that: first, there are two types of place attachments: community attachment and city attachment. The level of urban residents' community attachment is higher than that of city attachment. Second, the level of local residents' place attachment is significantly higher than that of migrants. Third, urban residents' community attachment is significantly affected by both social trust and residential satisfaction, but without the mediating effect of community attachment these two dimensions do not have direct impacts on city attachment. Fourth, social trust and residential satisfaction have significant effects on both community attachment and city attachment of migrants; but their impacts on local residents' city attachment are relatively weak. Our findings indicate that the mechanism of place attachment is marked by both spatiality and heterogeneity. For instance, for different spatial scales, the determinants of place attachment and their effects are by no means the same. Moreover, there are varied mechanisms of place attachments for different types of residents or social groups. As such, we call for policy concerns upon the differentiation of stratified social groups and spatial contexts, when China implements its strategy to promote people-centered urbanization and social wellbeing, or against the context of developing countries or transitional economy.