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    25 October 2007, Volume 62 Issue 10 Previous Issue    Next Issue
    Urban Spatial Sprawl Pattern and Metr ics in South of Jiangsu Province along the Yangtze River
    MA Ronghua, GU Chaolin, PU Yingxia, MA Xiaodong, ZHU Chuangeng
    2007, 62 (10):  1011-1022.  doi: 10.11821/xb200710001
    Abstract ( 485 )   PDF (2970KB) ( 522 )   Save

    Satellite images acquired in 1984, 1991, 2000 and 2005, respectively, were used to interpret the boundaries of cities and towns in the south of Jiangsu province along the Yangtze River on the basis of our boundary definition. And then regional urban spatial sprawl pattern was uncovered quantificationally by some indexes, such as fractal dimensions including radius dimension, grid dimension, correlation dimension, boundary dimension, compactness index, and spatial autocorrelation index including global Moran I and local Moran I. The result shows that: (1) fractal dimension metrics and spatial autocorrelation index, respectively, can quantificationally reveal regional urban spatial distribution features and spatial sprawl process and cluster pattern, and their fuse can measure regional urban spatial sprawl pattern and uncover the process of how to form the urban cluster; and (2) at the initial stage of reform and open-up policy, the urban sprawl in the south of Jiangsu province along the Yangtze River was spontaneously point-pattern centered around big cities, and then point-axis-pattern dominated by policy-driven urban spatial fuse and fill, at present cluster-stretched pattern based on regional industry spatial organization driven by economical radiation and contact, and a big urban group is coming into being. Especially since 2000, spatial structure features of an urban group are more and more evident with time elapsing. Additionally, the main feature of urbanization in the study area is that industrialization pushes urbanization based on the background of global economy. In the study area three centric cities have existed since the 1980s, however, their spatial polarizations have a less and less effect on others.

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    The Evolution of Urban Economic Effect Regions in Jiangsu Province since 1978
    ZHU Jie, GUAN Weihua, JIANG Zhixin, ZHEN Feng
    2007, 62 (10):  1023-1033.  doi: 10.11821/xb200710002
    Abstract ( 510 )   PDF (3068KB) ( 466 )   Save

    According to the theory of abrupt climatic change, the regional economic development process in Jiangsu province since 1978 is divided into three periods in this paper. Then the paper employs urban centrality index and time cost for transportation, instead of the city scale and the distance factor, to modify the original potential model. Based on the grid arithmetic of GIS methodology, the paper identifies the scope of urban economic effect regions (UEERs) for central cities at different ranks in Jiangsu province of the main years. Accordingly, Jiangsu province can be separated into different ranks of UEERs. Consequently, the characteristics of UEERs in Jiangsu province since 1978 can be summarized below: (1) the spatial structure changes from South-North to East-West; (2) the UEERs in the southexpands towards north; and (3) the new central cities in southern Jiangsu province occur. Furthermore, the mechanism of evolution of UEERs in Jiangsu is also analyzed in this paper. The development of transportation axes, the diversities of economic development level and the disparities among the input of social production factors are the three main reasons accountable for the changing patterns of UEERs. The effects of transportation are measured by density of transportation network of each county or city which is calculated by different weighed values for highways, expressways and so on. The economic development level measured by GDP per capita is a direct way to reflect the disparities of capability for central cities. And the influence of social production factors is weighed by analyzing the index of total population, fixed assets investment per capita and the number of the labor force. It is concluded that transportation axes play the most important role in the spatial structure formation of UEERs among the three factors; besides, the capital-intensive factor input has greater influence on UEERs than the labor-intensive one does to a great extent.

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    The Changes in Disparity of Urban Transportation Development Level Rank in China
    CAO Xiaoshu, ZHANG Limin, XUE Desheng, WANG Dapeng
    2007, 62 (10):  1034-1040.  doi: 10.11821/xb200710003
    Abstract ( 429 )   PDF (1624KB) ( 530 )   Save

    This paper selects the statistics of 183 cities in China, in the years of 1991, 1995, 1999 and 2003. We adopt the Natural Breaks with Arcmap software to divide these cities into five ranks according to their urban transportation development levels, and use the SPSS to analyse the development level rank disparity change which characterizes the spindle structure—the plus number of the cities which are better and worse than the average level is less than 32% of the total. Meanwhile, more than 68% of the cities' transportation development levels are close to the average one. Cities with higher urban transportation development level than the average present the "centralized - decentralized - decentralized - centralized" characteristics in provincial spatial distribution, while those with lower level than the average present the decentralized and irregular spatial pattern. The disparity of the urban transportation development level rank in China appears a U-shaped changing pattern—it decreased in 1991-1995, increased in 1995-1999, and then decreased in 1999-2003 again, but the fluctuation range was not great in each period. Cities with urban transportation development level going up spatially centralized in Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and Liaoning, while those with degressive development level spatially are centralized in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shaanxi, Hubei and Hunan. Applying to the relative analysis it can be found that, in China, there exists a significant positive correlation betweent the development levels of urban transportation and economy. At the same time, the economic structure is relevant to the urban transportation development level. In 1991-2003, the urban transportation development level exhibited a distinct correlation with the gross industrial output value per capita at 0.01 level, and the correlation coefficient took on an ascending trand.

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    Sustainability Status and Tr ends of Regional Economic Development and Their Spatial Distr ibution
    ZHANG Jian, PU Lijie, CHEN Yi, PENG Buzhuo
    2007, 62 (10):  1041-1050.  doi: 10.11821/xb200710004
    Abstract ( 460 )   PDF (2159KB) ( 551 )   Save

    The triangle method, as an intuitive platform for illustrating sustainability status and trends in economic development, seems to hold promise as an analytical management tool given its simplicity, ease of use, and flexibility. The triangle model can serve as an intuitive platform for illustrating existing sustainability status and trends in economic development coincident with the implementation of various measures. The intuitive aspect of the model makes it easy to understand and use by researchers and policy-makers from many different levels. The method's flexibility in the selection of individual indicators and basic analytical units, its ease of understanding and use by experts and managers, and its simplicity in calculating and presenting status or trends of sustainability would seem to offer the potential for widespread use. Based on the interrelationships among economic development, resource-energy consumption, and environmental pollution, in conjunction with ecological performance and the triangle method, a definition for sustainable economic development was proposed, and a novel triangle method was designed to evaluate economic development sustainability. Chuzhou City is located at the middle east of China and lies in the middle zone among the country's three major zones of the eastern zone, middle zone and western zone. It is adjacent to the economically developed Yangtze Triangle Region. It had a total population of 435.62 ×104 in 2005. It covers a total area of 135.23 ×104 hm2 with four counties, two cities and two districts under its administration. Because Chuzhou City is located between the economically developed eastern coastal areas and economically backward western areas , the study of economic development is of typical to a certain extent. As a case study, the triangle method was applied to assess the sustainability status and long-term trends of Chuzhou's economic development. The results show that economic development in 2005 represents a relatively commonly state of sustainability, and the seven political regions in Chuzhou City reflect sustainability positions ranging from weakly sustainable to commonly sustainable. The sustainability in the southeast is better than in the northwest. The Chuzhou's economic development between 1975 and 1998 reveals a common sustainable trend, while that from 1998 to 2005 demonstrates a relatively strong sustainable trend. Chuzhou's unremitting efforts in environmental protection and in the increasing integration of environmental considerations within the economic development process over the last three decades are contributory to these status and trends.

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    Spatial Distr ibution Dynamics of Provincial Economic Growth in China
    LI Guoping, CHEN Xiaoling
    2007, 62 (10):  1051-1062.  doi: 10.11821/xb200710005
    Abstract ( 552 )   PDF (2490KB) ( 489 )   Save

    By using the method of MEDD, from two aspects of shape and mobility, this paper explores the evolution of spatial distribution dynamics of provincial economic growth in China from 1978 to 2004. The research results indicate that the shape of provincial economic spatial distribution has changed from stratification to convergence and then to two peaks state in China. Besides the gap among the economic growth levels of provinces within a convergence club has varied from widening to narrowing again, whereas the gap among the economic level of different convergence clubs has varied from narrowing to widening again, indicating that the economic inequities between the two convergence clubs have continue to expand. After the 1990s the regional economic growth became more energetic. Transition matrices, unconditional and space-conditioned dynamic stochastic kernel and contour plots reveal that spatial interactions influence the spatial distribution of provincial economic growth in the future. The spatial context is a very important factor in affecting the distribution of economic growth. It is very likely that spatial proximity stimulates spatial interaction. The economic growth of a region depends on the performance of its neighboring provinces. Provinces with wealthier neighbors have a greater chance to become prosperous. The spatial spillovers from the economic development of provinces having close geographical positions promote provinces with similar economic level to cluster spatially.

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    A Quantitative Evaluation on Regional Market Potential in China
    SHI Minjun, ZHAO Zhao, JIN Fengjun
    2007, 62 (10):  1063-1072.  doi: 10.11821/xb200710006
    Abstract ( 560 )   PDF (2633KB) ( 540 )   Save

    This paper focuses on market potential by taking it as an indicator of market accessibility from a viewpoint of location-market connection, based on the analysis of district-level data in China. The results indicate that market potential index (MPI) degrades from the coastal areas to the inland areas. Furthermore, disparity of market potential between the coastal areas and the inland areas is still expanding unceasingly. Manufacturing industries concentrate in the regions with high market potential. A significant spatial correlation between market potential index and regional economic performance is observed at regional level. Such a spatial correlation has verified that market accessibility is one of the determinants of location choice for manufacturing industries. It also has revealed that there is a circulatory causality between market potential and regional development. The circulatory causality may spur the coastal areas to keep predominance in future and then lead to a continuous expansion of regional disparity. As the inter-regional economic exchange is significant to location-market connection, location analysis should take into account the inter-regional economic exchange. Western China is restricted to develop external linkage with the coastal areas due to long distance to the latter and expensive transport cost. Therefore, the western areas should make a point of expanding internal market to improve market accessibility.

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    The Relief Degree of Land Surface in China and Its Correlation with Population Distribution
    FENG Zhiming, TANG Yan, YANG Yanzhao, ZHANG Dan
    2007, 62 (10):  1073-1082.  doi: 10.11821/xb200710007
    Abstract ( 1047 )   PDF (2492KB) ( 760 )   Save

    The relief degree of land surface (RDLS) is an important factor in describing the landform macroscopically. Under the new proposed concept, based on the macro-scale digital elevation model data, by using ARC/INFO software, the RDLS of 10km×10km grid size is extracted and mapped in China. Then this paper systemically depicts the distribution rules of RDLS in China and its correlation with population distribution by analyzing the ratio structure, spatial distribution and altitudinal characteristics of the RDLS. The distribution rule is elaborately expatiated in three separate ways: the ratio structure, the accumulative frequency, and the change along with the longitude and latitude, which clearly reflects the regional topographic framework of China. The result shows that the majority of the RDLS is low in China, for more than 63% of the area in China with the RDLS lower than 1 (relative altitude ≤ 500 m). As for the spatial distribution, in general, the RDLS of the west is higher than that of the east and so is the south than the north. Specifically, the Hengduan Mountains and the Tianshan Mountains regions have the highest RDLS, while the Northeast China Plain, the North China Plain and the Tarim Basin have the lowest ones. The RDLS of 28oN, 35ooN and 42oN as well as of 85oE, 102oE and 115oE accords well with the three topographic steps in China. The RDLS of China decreases with the increase of longitude and the change clearly illustrates the landform characteristics that most of the mountains are located in the west and most plains in the east of China. The RDLS of China decreases with the increase of latitude as well and the trend shows that there are more mountains and hills in South China and more plains and plateaus in North China. In the vertical direction, the ratio of high RDLS increases with the increase of altitude. Finally, this paper analyzes the correlation between the RDLS and population distribution in China and the result shows that the RDLS is an important factor affecting the distribution of population and most people in China live in low RDLS areas. To be more specifically, where the RDLS is zero, the population amounts for 0.83% of the total; where the RDLS is less than 1 (relative altitude ≤ 500 m), the population reaches 20.83%; where the RDLS is less than 2, the population amounts for 97.58% of the total; and where the RDLS is bigger than 3, the population only amounts for 0.57%. That is to say, more than 85% of the population in China lives in areas where the RDLS is less than 1 and less than 1% of the population lives in areas where the RDLS is bigger than 3. The correlations between the RDLS and population distribution of eight regions in China are different. The correlation is obvious in northeast, north, central and south China, while it is nearly nonexistent in Inner Mongolia and the Qinghai-Tibet region.

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    The Evolution of Spatial Structure of Shopping Behaviors of Beijing's Residents
    FENG Jian, CHEN Xiuxin, LAN Zongmin
    2007, 62 (10):  1083-1096.  doi: 10.11821/xb200710008
    Abstract ( 693 )   PDF (3218KB) ( 612 )   Save

    It is of great importance to analyze urban commercial spatial structure from the viewpoint of consumers' behavior. During the latest ten years, with the development of suburbanization, the spatial structure of urban commerce in Beijing has greatly changed. Under this background, Beijing residents' shopping behavior has greatly changed. Based on more than five hundred questionnaires, the authors try to analyze the features of the evolution of spatial structure of shopping behaviors of Beijing's residents in the latest 10 years and their mechanisms. The average distance of residents' shopping trip was shortened in Beijing in the latest 10 years. The change of the spatial structure of shopping behavior of each kind of goods differs from each other. So does that of the shopping sites of each kind of goods in Beijing. The change of the hierarchical structure of shopping behaviors of Beijing's residents is also very interesting, for the hierarchical structure of the inner suburban residents descended while that of the core residents had little change. In a word, the features of the changes of the spatial structure and hierarchical structure all reflect the tendency of decentralization and polycentric urbanization of the development of Beijing's commerce. It should be pointed out that Beijing's residents tend to buy goods of low hierarchy near where they live, such as vegetables and the daily use articles, while they tend to buy goods of high hierarchy in shopping malls, large supermarkets and shopping centers for electric equipments, for these places are more attractive. The change of macroscopic environment, that of shopping suppliers and that of consumers are all significant factors propelling the evolution of the spatial structure of Beijing residents' shopping behaviors. Based on these factors, the authors put forward a theoretical frame of the mechanisms of the evolution of urban commercial spatial structure.

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    Case-based Cellular Automaton for Simulating Urban Development in a Large Complex Region
    LI Xia, LIU Xiaoping
    2007, 62 (10):  1097-1109.  doi: 10.11821/xb200710009
    Abstract ( 712 )   PDF (2925KB) ( 637 )   Save

    The essential part of geographical cellular automata (CA) is to provide appropriate transition rules so that realistic patterns can be simulated. Transition rules can be defined by a variety of methods, such as multicriteria evaluation (MCE), logistic regression, neural networks, and data mining. The solicitation of concrete knowledge (transition rules) is often difficult for many applications. There are problems in representing complex relationships by using detailed rules. This study demonstrates that the case-based approach can avoid the problems of the rule-based approach in defining CA. The proposed method is based on the case-based reasoning techniques, which don't require the procedure of soliciting explicit transition rules. The knowledge for determining the state conversion of CA is inexplicitly embedded in discrete cases. The lazy-learning technology can be used to represent complex relationships more effectively than detailed equations or explicit transition rules. This paper presents an extended cellular automaton in which transition rules are represented by using case-based reasoning (CBR) techniques. The common k-NN algorithm of CBR has been modified to incorporate the location factor to reflect the spatial variation of transition rules. Multi-temporal remote sensing images are used to obtain the adaptation knowledge in the temporal dimension. This model has been applied to the simulation of urban development in the Pearl River Delta which has a hierarchy of cities. Comparison indicates that this model can produce more plausible results than rule-based CA in simulating large complex regions.

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    A Method of Spatialization of Statistical Population
    LIAO Yilan, WANG Jinfeng, MENG Bin, LI Xinhu
    2007, 62 (10):  1110-1119.  doi: 10.11821/xb200710010
    Abstract ( 659 )   PDF (3357KB) ( 594 )   Save

    Mapping distribution of population has arisen as an important issue in the fields of geographical and relative researches, due to the necessity of combining with spatial data representing socio-graphic information across various spatial units, such as to evaluate the total numbers of people at environmental health risks or died in natural disasters. However, most existing solutions to this problem focus on selection and quantification of influencing factors and rarely take into account the correlation among selected factors. And much expertise is needed in modeling process to formulate the relationships between influencing factors and population data successfully. It usually not only produces information redundancy but increases the complexity of the problem. This paper explores a novel approach to transform population data from census to grid by integrating genetic programming (GP), Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). A set of natural and socioeconomic factors which contribute to population distribution are identified and quantified under GIS environment. And then GP and GA are severally applied to build and optimize the population model in the hierarchical form, allowing for the computation of the relevant population data error. The experiment proves that the proposed method performs much better than stepwise regression analysis and adapted gravity model approaches. The GP/GA-based method is the first to introduce such computational intelligence techniques as GP and GA to generate gridded population maps, hence it is a methodological innovation in interpolation of population data.

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