清代自然灾害所致极端人口死亡事件的识别及特征

doi:10.11821/dlxb202305002

Abstract

Abstract:

Mass mortality is one of the major threats posed by natural disasters to the population system, which consists of interactions between natural and socio-economic systems. Based on records of deaths extracted from the Integrated Natural Disaster Information System of the Qing Dynasty, events with mass deaths caused by natural disasters are identified, and the decadal deaths index series from 1644 to 1911 is reconstructed. The spatio-temporal characteristics and causes of these extreme events with mass deaths are also analyzed. The main results show the following. First, from 1644 to 1911, historical China suffered a high frequency of extreme events with mass deaths that occurred in 91 years, with events occurring once every three years on average. Second, the deaths index series varies significantly in three phases: Phase Ⅰ is from 1644 to the 1720s with a frequency and intensity close to the average over the entire Qing Dynasty; Phase Ⅱ is from the 1730s to the 1800s with a low frequency of events occurring in two years and in two provinces per decade; and Phase Ⅲ is from the 1810s to 1911 with a high frequency of events occurring in five years and in five provinces per decade. The maximum frequency and intensity appeared in the 1870s, whereas no extreme events with mass deaths occurred in the 1750s. Third, a total of 18 provinces experienced extreme events, and the spatial distribution of extreme events during the three phases differs. During Phase Ⅰ, extreme events were widely distributed but of relatively low intensity; such events occurred in fewer provinces during Phase Ⅱ. During Phase Ⅲ, extreme events occurred in 18 provinces with high intensity and their spatial distribution showed a significant pattern of floods in southern China and droughts in northern China. Finally, epidemics, famine, and flood were the main contributors to extreme events with mass deaths throughout the entire Qing Dynasty, with drought, heavy rain, and storm surges being the main indirect factors.

Key words: Qing Dynasty, historical disasters, population deaths, spatial and temporal characteristics

CHEN Siyu, FANG Xiuqi, YE Yu, ZHAO Wanyi. Identification and characteristics of extreme events with mass deaths caused by natural disasters in the Qing Dynasty[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2023, 78(5): 1074-1087.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 35

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类型	关键词	示例
数量型	十、百、千、万、十万、百万	“淹死万七千余人”
比例型	十之一二、十之八九、十死一二等	“人死十分之七”“死亡过半”
语义型	少、不少、多、甚多、载道、遍野、不可计数、不可胜计等	“间有溺毙人口”“尸横遍野”“死者不可计数”

记录情况	历史记录原文	直接因子	第一间接因子	第二间接因子
单条记录	“辛巳，邑民半罹水死。”	n = 1，x = 1 (洪涝)	-	-
多条记录	“康熙三十年大旱，飞蝗蔽天，民饥死者大半。”	n = 1，x = 1 (饥荒)	n = 2，x = 2 (干旱、蝗虫)	-
原因缺失记录	“岁道光己酉，邑大饥，城内外偃仆者，日数十人，谷一石值二金有奇……是岁人民大抵十损三四……” 补充同年同地记录：“道光二十九年，雨潦，斗米千钱，民无所得，食至飱泥……”	n = 1，x = 1 (饥荒)	n = 1，x = 2 (洪涝)	n = 1，x = 3 (雨水)

省份	灾害类型	县次
省份	灾害类型	≥1000	<1000
广西省	兵灾	6	13
贵州省	兵灾	1	2
湖北省	干旱、地震	0	8
江苏省	干旱、虫灾、疫病、兵灾	0	5
福建省	洪涝	0	3
广东省	洪涝、低温	0	3
安徽省	干旱	0	2
山东省	干旱	0	2
河南省	干旱、虫灾	0	2
四川省	冰雪	0	2
山西省	洪涝	0	1
奉天省	洪涝	0	1
浙江省	兵灾	0	1
江西省	动物灾害	0	1

Identification and characteristics of extreme events with mass deaths caused by natural disasters in the Qing Dynasty

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