Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (10): 2522-2535.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202110013

• Urban and Regional Development • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Synchronized simulation of urban diffusional and aggregational process based on the affinity propagation cellular automata: A case study of Wuhan city

HE Qingsong1(), TAN Ronghui2, YANG Jun3()   

  1. 1. College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430079, China
    2. College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
    3. Jangho Architecture, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China
  • Received:2020-10-13 Revised:2021-06-06 Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-12-25
  • Contact: YANG Jun E-mail:baihualin2013@163.com;yangjun8@mail.neu.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(42001334)

Abstract:

Cellular automata (CA) has been widely recognized as an effective approach in the simulation of spatiotemporal dynamics of metropolitan areas, particularly for infilling and edge urban expansion processes. However, the traditional Logistics-CA has its severe drawbacks in simulating outlying expansion, since it evolves primarily according to the status of a set of neighboring cells, failing to identify other potential seeds that could also stimulate urban expansion in a significant way. This paper develops an advanced CA, called APCA, by using Affinity Propagation (AP) to comprehensively search for urban expansion seed points, as well as by realizing a synchronous simulation of diffusional and aggregational processes of urban cell. This paper uses the data of Wuhan, the largest provincial capital in central China, to validate the effectiveness of APCA. By simulating Wuhan's urban expansion dynamics between 1995 and 2025, the APCA (1) identifies that the total areas of outlying expansion amount to 8.67 km2, accounting for 6.30% of added urban land of the city; and (2) successfully simulates a process of "first diffusion and then aggregation" in Wuhan, which is in harmony with the Phase Theory of urban expansion. Compared with the traditional Logistics-CA, the overall accuracy of APCA remains higher regardless of the number of seed points as long as they are within 1-8, while the accuracy of APCA reaches its highest (0.5217) when the seed point is set as 6. The APCA contributes to the two-dimensional CA framework by expanding surface-dimension simulation to point-dimension simulation, and thereby facilitates effective and accurate simulations of urban expansion patterns.

Key words: cellular automata, affinity propagation, diffusional urban expansion, Wuhan