Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (5): 1274-1293.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202105017
• Resources Use and Environmental Evolution • Previous Articles Next Articles
GUO Xiangyang1,2(), MU Xueqing3, DING Zhengshan1,2(
), QIN Dongli1,2
Received:
2020-01-08
Revised:
2020-12-18
Online:
2021-05-25
Published:
2021-07-25
Contact:
DING Zhengshan
E-mail:guoxiangyang01@163.com;dingzhengshan@263.net
Supported by:
GUO Xiangyang, MU Xueqing, DING Zhengshan, QIN Dongli. Nonlinear effects and driving mechanism of multidimensional urbanization on PM2.5 concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1274-1293.
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Tab. 1
Changes of global Moran's I index of PM2.5 in the Yangtze River Delta in 2000-2017
年份 | Moran's I | Z统计量 | P值 | 年份 | Moran's I | Z统计量 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 0.773 | 6.524 | < 0.001 | 2009 | 0.890 | 7.441 | < 0.001 |
2001 | 0.826 | 6.900 | < 0.001 | 2010 | 0.905 | 7.524 | < 0.001 |
2002 | 0.857 | 7.154 | < 0.001 | 2011 | 0.891 | 7.466 | < 0.001 |
2003 | 0.874 | 7.294 | < 0.001 | 2012 | 0.856 | 7.226 | < 0.001 |
2004 | 0.848 | 7.109 | < 0.001 | 2013 | 0.884 | 7.397 | < 0.001 |
2005 | 0.832 | 6.988 | < 0.001 | 2014 | 0.872 | 7.316 | < 0.001 |
2006 | 0.891 | 7.404 | < 0.001 | 2015 | 0.902 | 7.528 | < 0.001 |
2007 | 0.882 | 7.390 | < 0.001 | 2016 | 0.892 | 7.413 | < 0.001 |
2008 | 0.864 | 7.272 | < 0.001 | 2017 | 0.905 | 7.566 | < 0.001 |
Tab. 2
Standard deviation elliptic parameter of PM2.5 concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta in 2000-2017
年份 | 重心坐标 | x轴(km) | y轴(km) | 旋转角θ(°) | 偏移方向 | 偏移距离(km) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 118°53'27''E,31°43'34''N | 275.98 | 167.73 | 134.30 | ||
2001 | 118°52'50''E,31°46'79''N | 276.95 | 165.59 | 133.25 | 西偏北 | 3.905 |
2002 | 118°51'24''E,31°48'14''N | 271.75 | 168.90 | 132.81 | 西偏北 | 1.919 |
2003 | 118°49'38''E,31°50'70''N | 275.84 | 169.10 | 132.59 | 西偏北 | 3.348 |
2004 | 118°49'34''E,31°44'53''N | 270.55 | 170.00 | 133.53 | 东偏南 | 6.816 |
2005 | 118°47'32''E,31°47'18''N | 271.79 | 170.33 | 133.55 | 西偏北 | 3.515 |
2006 | 118°49'12''E,31°53'59''N | 271.25 | 169.77 | 133.75 | 西偏北 | 7.329 |
2007 | 118°44'12''E,31°52'14''N | 274.33 | 168.69 | 132.33 | 西偏南 | 5.006 |
2008 | 118°48'26''E,31°47'34''N | 271.70 | 169.67 | 132.61 | 东偏南 | 6.625 |
2009 | 118°49'90''E,31°50'47''N | 268.39 | 170.51 | 132.10 | 西偏北 | 3.812 |
2010 | 118°44'56''E,31°55'45''N | 274.41 | 170.92 | 132.86 | 西偏北 | 7.502 |
2011 | 118°47'44''E,31°52'50''N | 266.38 | 170.47 | 132.95 | 东偏南 | 4.267 |
2012 | 118°47'55''E,31°49'10''N | 271.19 | 169.71 | 133.12 | 东偏南 | 3.782 |
2013 | 118°47'17''E,31°52'44''N | 270.78 | 169.78 | 132.58 | 西偏北 | 3.731 |
2014 | 118°45'10''E,31°49'50''N | 269.08 | 169.95 | 133.55 | 西偏南 | 3.813 |
2015 | 118°46'10''E,31°54'47''N | 263.21 | 171.55 | 131.61 | 西偏北 | 5.607 |
2016 | 118°48'22''E,31°57'29''N | 266.51 | 170.29 | 132.84 | 东偏北 | 9.152 |
2017 | 118°36'47''E,31°58'40''N | 266.33 | 171.91 | 132.80 | 西偏南 | 11.198 |
Tab. 3
Variable selection and descriptive statistical results
变量名称 | 符号 | 具体指标 | 单位 | 均值 | 标准误差 | 最小值 | 最大值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PM2.5浓度 | PM | PM2.5年均浓度值 | μg/m3 | 46.310 | 13.170 | 14.900 | 74.040 |
经济城市化 | E-URB | 人均GDP | 元/人 | 39654 | 35134 | 1360 | 171765 |
人口城市化 | P-URB | 非农业人口数量/总人口 | % | 36.476 | 18.394 | 7.760 | 84.570 |
土地城市化 | L-URB | 城市建设用地面积/总面积 | % | 9.663 | 10.012 | 0.330 | 60.770 |
人口规模 | POP | 常住人口数量 | 万人 | 502.980 | 343.180 | 44.270 | 2426 |
外商投资 | FDI | 外商直接投资额占GDP的比重 | % | 7.360 | 7.650 | 0.110 | 71.160 |
产业结构 | IND | 第二产业产值占GDP的比重 | % | 50.340 | 941.520 | 26.320 | 76.000 |
环境规制 | ER | 环境污染治理投资额占GDP的比重 | % | 0.810 | 0.860 | 0.050 | 3.910 |
Tab. 4
Results of panel regression analysis of nonlinear effects of multidimensional urbanization on PM2.5
自变量 | 经济城市化(E-URB) | 人口城市化(P-URB) | 土地城市化(L-URB) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OLS | FE | SGMM | OLS | FE | SGMM | OLS | FE | SGMM | |||
模型1 | 模型2 | 模型7 | 模型8 | 模型9 | 模型14 | 模型15 | 模型16 | 模型21 | |||
PM_2 | 0.805*** (291.050) | 0.585*** (55.620) | 0.690*** (75.470) | 0.857*** (476.620) | 0.646*** (66.460) | 0.753*** (86.870) | 0.818*** (320.880) | 0.717*** (99.490) | 0.742*** (109.320) | ||
lnURB | -0.102*** (-9.450) | -0.179*** (-17.790) | -10.262*** (-8.840) | 0.168*** (12.730) | 0.067*** (14.710) | 0.095*** (4.670) | 0.076*** (4.520) | 0.011** (2.280) | 0.008*** (5.500) | ||
lnURB2 | 0.452*** (22.306) | 0.301*** (32.930) | 0.978*** (12.520) | 0.355*** (10.250) | 0.309*** (10.220) | 0.315*** (6.240) | 0.032*** (2.620) | 0.033*** (2.730) | 0.041*** (5.040) | ||
lnURB3 | -0.121*** (-3.336) | -0.101*** (-3.264) | -0.031*** (-9.328) | ||||||||
lnPOP | 0.135*** (7.450) | 0.122*** (7.780) | 0.140*** (6.950) | 0.098*** (5.760) | 0.095*** (6.480) | 0.025*** (4.220) | 0.126*** (6.970) | 0.119*** (7.680) | 0.037*** (6.820) | ||
lnFDI | 0.068*** (5.430) | 0.090*** (8.110) | 0.061*** (7.790) | 0.095*** (8.200) | 0.105*** (10.280) | 0.034*** (10.030) | 0.078*** (6.360) | 0.094*** (8.640) | 0.032*** (10.190) | ||
lnIND | 0.206*** (2.950) | 0.231*** (3.730) | 0.229*** (7.100) | 0.441*** (6.670) | 0.412*** (7.040) | 0.142*** (9.160) | 0.234*** (3.320) | 0.256*** (4.100) | 0.132*** (7.150) | ||
lnER | -0.040*** (-5.320) | -0.040*** (-6.170) | -0.044*** (-7.360) | -0.031*** (-4.390) | -0.033*** (-5.330) | -0.008*** (-3.680) | -0.040*** (-5.310) | -0.039*** (-6.080) | -0.013*** (-4.150) | ||
_cons | 3.075*** (602.120) | -0.427*** (-4.370) | 6.561*** (3.400) | 2.722*** (6.300) | 4.365*** (10.700) | 1.233*** (12.870) | 0.701*** (57.960) | 0.693*** (49.430) | 1.661*** (13.120) | ||
AR(1) | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.012 | 0.012 | 0.000 | ||
AR(2) | 0.125 | 0.138 | 0.202 | 0.126 | 0.118 | 0.198 | 0.128 | 0.146 | 0.233 | ||
Sargan test | 0.114 | 0.126 | 0.232 | 0.142 | 0.121 | 0.236 | 0.164 | 0.137 | 0.246 |
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