Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2021, Vol. 76 ›› Issue (4): 1034-1048.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202104017
• Geographical Relationship and Regional Development • Previous Articles Next Articles
WU Feng1,2(), LIU Guijun1,2, GUO Naliang1,2, LI Zhihui1,2(
), DENG Xiangzheng1,2
Received:
2020-05-27
Revised:
2021-03-04
Online:
2021-04-25
Published:
2021-06-25
Contact:
LI Zhihui
E-mail:wufeng@igsnrr.ac.cn;lizhihui@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
WU Feng, LIU Guijun, GUO Naliang, LI Zhihui, DENG Xiangzheng. The effects of COVID-19 epidemic on regional economy and industry in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(4): 1034-1048.
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Tab. 1
Statistics of indicators for COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control risk classification in China
确诊人数 (人) | 总人口数 (万人) | 一级到二级(d) | 二级到三级(d) | 一级到三级(d) | 流出人口 占比(%) | 分级 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
湖北省 | 68139 | 5917.00 | 99 | 44 | 143 | 0.00 | 1 |
广东省 | 1758 | 11346.00 | 32 | 75 | 107 | 8.07 | 2 |
浙江省 | 1278 | 5737.00 | 39 | 21 | 60 | 2.97 | 2 |
河南省 | 1276 | 9605.00 | 54 | 47 | 101 | 19.22 | 2 |
湖南省 | 1019 | 6898.83 | 47 | 21 | 68 | 16.82 | 2 |
安徽省 | 991 | 6323.60 | 32 | 19 | 51 | 6.74 | 2 |
北京市 | 935 | 2154.20 | 97 | 37 | 134 | 1.44 | 2 |
江西省 | 935 | 4647.59 | 48 | 8 | 56 | 7.86 | 2 |
上海市 | 913 | 2424.00 | 60 | 46 | 106 | 1.36 | 2 |
黑龙江省 | 948 | 3773.00 | 39 | 21 | 60 | 0.45 | 3 |
重庆市 | 583 | 3101.79 | 46 | 14 | 60 | 8.40 | 3 |
新疆维吾尔自治区 | 902 | 2487.00 | 31 | 11 | 42 | 0.24 | 3 |
江苏省 | 665 | 8050.70 | 31 | 32 | 63 | 3.84 | 3 |
山东省 | 831 | 10047.23 | 44 | 59 | 103 | 2.18 | 3 |
四川省 | 656 | 8341.00 | 33 | 28 | 61 | 4.14 | 3 |
福建省 | 384 | 3941.01 | 33 | 22 | 55 | 2.52 | 3 |
陕西省 | 373 | 3864.39 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 3.28 | 3 |
海南省 | 171 | 934.32 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0.89 | 3 |
河北省 | 365 | 7556.29 | 97 | 37 | 134 | 1.87 | 4 |
内蒙古自治区 | 261 | 2533.98 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 0.26 | 4 |
天津市 | 230 | 1560.00 | 97 | 37 | 134 | 0.23 | 4 |
辽宁省 | 263 | 4358.99 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0.46 | 4 |
广西壮族自治区 | 257 | 4925.99 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 1.86 | 4 |
山西省 | 203 | 3718.36 | 30 | 15 | 45 | 1.20 | 4 |
甘肃省 | 169 | 2637.27 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 0.71 | 4 |
云南省 | 199 | 4829.99 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 1.12 | 4 |
宁夏回族自治区 | 75 | 688.00 | 34 | 68 | 102 | 0.07 | 4 |
吉林省 | 157 | 2704.00 | 32 | 23 | 55 | 0.28 | 4 |
贵州省 | 147 | 3600.00 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 1.40 | 4 |
青海省 | 18 | 603.21 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 0.08 | 4 |
西藏自治区 | 1 | 344.00 | 36 | 22 | 58 | 0.02 | 4 |
Tab. 2
Scenario design and parameters for economic impact and adaptation analysis of COVID-19 epidemic
情景设计 | 影响 情景一 | 影响情景二 (+情景一) | 影响情景三 (+情景二) | 影响情景四 (+情景三) | 适应性情景一 (+情景四) | 适应性情景二 (+情景四) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
冲击条件 | 劳动供给 下降 | 交通管制 | 各地区产业需求下降一致: | 各地区出口商品减少幅度均等 | 企业复工复产 | 政府支出 |
a.卫生与社会工作 | ||||||
b.信息传输与技术 | ||||||
c.住宿和餐饮 | ||||||
d.批发和零售 | ||||||
f.文娱 | ||||||
一级地区 | -3.20% | -53% | a.18.2% | -1% | 1.12% | 13.08% |
b.9.7% | ||||||
二级地区 | -2.40% | -34% | c.-18.0% | -1% | 0.96% | 18.70% |
三级地区 | -1.60% | -30% | d.-7.5% | -1% | 0.64% | 15.00% |
四级地区 | -1.20% | -26% | f.-9.0% | -1% | 0.48% | 10.00% |
Tab. 3
Rates of change in GDP, CPI, employment rate, residential consumption, import, and export under different COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control scenarios (%)
宏观指标 | GDP | CPI | 就业 | 家庭消费 | 进口 | 出口 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
一级地区 | Ⅰ-0.768 | Ⅰ1.101 | Ⅰ-1.387 | Ⅰ-2.575 | Ⅰ0.142 | Ⅰ-0.935 |
Ⅱ-0.786 | Ⅱ1.243 | Ⅱ-1.381 | Ⅱ-2.432 | Ⅱ-0.331 | Ⅱ-0.939 | |
Ⅲ-0.796 | Ⅲ1.113 | Ⅲ-1.339 | Ⅲ-2.710 | Ⅲ-0.544 | Ⅲ-0.734 | |
Ⅳ-0.810 | Ⅳ1.010 | Ⅳ-1.347 | Ⅳ-2.178 | Ⅳ-0.686 | Ⅳ-0.744 | |
二级地区 | Ⅰ-0.546 | Ⅰ0.910 | Ⅰ-1.045 | Ⅰ-2.577 | Ⅰ0.035 | Ⅰ-0.644 |
Ⅱ-0.546 | Ⅱ0.979 | Ⅱ-1.044 | Ⅱ-2.514 | Ⅱ-0.036 | Ⅱ-0.629 | |
Ⅲ-0.514 | Ⅲ1.004 | Ⅲ-0.881 | Ⅲ-2.408 | Ⅲ0.100 | Ⅲ-0.456 | |
Ⅳ-0.530 | Ⅳ0.897 | Ⅳ-0.894 | Ⅳ-1.860 | Ⅳ-0.041 | Ⅳ-0.465 | |
三级地区 | Ⅰ-0.356 | Ⅰ0.882 | Ⅰ-0.676 | Ⅰ-3.032 | Ⅰ0.142 | Ⅰ-0.527 |
Ⅱ-0.355 | Ⅱ0.962 | Ⅱ-0.671 | Ⅱ-2.951 | Ⅱ0.060 | Ⅱ-0.519 | |
Ⅲ-0.366 | Ⅲ0.755 | Ⅲ-0.573 | Ⅲ-3.194 | Ⅲ0.115 | Ⅲ-0.280 | |
Ⅳ-0.378 | Ⅳ0.654 | Ⅳ-0.581 | Ⅳ-2.141 | Ⅳ-0.010 | Ⅳ-0.299 | |
四级地区 | Ⅰ-0.236 | Ⅰ0.870 | Ⅰ-0.479 | Ⅰ-3.073 | Ⅰ0.342 | Ⅰ-0.417 |
Ⅱ-0.240 | Ⅱ0.929 | Ⅱ-0.478 | Ⅱ-3.021 | Ⅱ0.267 | Ⅱ-0.394 | |
Ⅲ-0.284 | Ⅲ0.647 | Ⅲ-0.402 | Ⅲ-3.380 | Ⅲ0.256 | Ⅲ-0.077 | |
Ⅳ-0.294 | Ⅳ0.549 | Ⅳ-0.408 | Ⅳ-2.216 | Ⅳ0.133 | Ⅳ-0.091 |
Tab. 4
Rates of output change in major sectors of the secondary industry under different COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control scenarios (%)
产业部门 | 一级地区 | 二级地区 | 三级地区 | 四级地区 |
---|---|---|---|---|
纺织品 | Ⅰ-1.852 | Ⅰ-1.329 | Ⅰ-1.061 | Ⅰ-0.943 |
Ⅱ-1.846 | Ⅱ-1.320 | Ⅱ-1.051 | Ⅱ-0.908 | |
Ⅲ-1.708 | Ⅲ-1.105 | Ⅲ-0.527 | Ⅲ-0.179 | |
Ⅳ-1.744 | Ⅳ-1.132 | Ⅳ-0.563 | Ⅳ-0.218 | |
纺织服装鞋帽皮革羽绒及其制品 | Ⅰ-1.283 | Ⅰ-1.105 | Ⅰ-0.896 | Ⅰ-0.732 |
Ⅱ-1.134 | Ⅱ-1.066 | Ⅱ-0.860 | Ⅱ-0.662 | |
Ⅲ-1.244 | Ⅲ-0.935 | Ⅲ-0.432 | Ⅲ-0.054 | |
Ⅳ-1.264 | Ⅳ-0.959 | Ⅳ-0.465 | Ⅳ-0.086 | |
木材加工品和家具 | Ⅰ-1.316 | Ⅰ-0.981 | Ⅰ-0.712 | Ⅰ-0.600 |
Ⅱ-1.303 | Ⅱ-0.972 | Ⅱ-0.708 | Ⅱ-0.577 | |
Ⅲ-1.356 | Ⅲ-1.025 | Ⅲ-0.585 | Ⅲ-0.352 | |
Ⅳ-1.380 | Ⅳ-1.045 | Ⅳ-0.611 | Ⅳ-0.379 | |
造纸印刷和文教体育用品 | Ⅰ-1.361 | Ⅰ-1.008 | Ⅰ-0.746 | Ⅰ-0.642 |
Ⅱ-1.380 | Ⅱ-1.016 | Ⅱ-0.758 | Ⅱ-0.635 | |
Ⅲ-1.411 | Ⅲ-1.056 | Ⅲ-0.595 | Ⅲ-0.353 | |
Ⅳ-1.437 | Ⅳ-1.078 | Ⅳ-0.621 | Ⅳ-0.380 | |
通信设备、计算机和其他电子设备 | Ⅰ-1.291 | Ⅰ-1.152 | Ⅰ-0.957 | Ⅰ-0.790 |
Ⅱ-1.259 | Ⅱ-1.157 | Ⅱ-0.962 | Ⅱ-0.785 | |
Ⅲ-1.281 | Ⅲ-1.123 | Ⅲ-0.850 | Ⅲ-0.638 | |
Ⅳ-1.338 | Ⅳ-1.168 | Ⅳ-0.893 | Ⅳ-0.662 | |
仪器仪表 | Ⅰ-1.128 | Ⅰ-0.954 | Ⅰ-0.804 | Ⅰ-0.719 |
Ⅱ-1.154 | Ⅱ-0.965 | Ⅱ-0.819 | Ⅱ-0.730 | |
Ⅲ-1.130 | Ⅲ-0.927 | Ⅲ-0.700 | Ⅲ-0.593 | |
Ⅳ-1.137 | Ⅳ-0.936 | Ⅳ-0.705 | Ⅳ-0.590 | |
其他制造产品 | Ⅰ-1.385 | Ⅰ-0.880 | Ⅰ-0.730 | Ⅰ-0.602 |
Ⅱ-1.409 | Ⅱ-0.876 | Ⅱ-0.728 | Ⅱ-0.590 | |
Ⅲ-1.436 | Ⅲ-0.895 | Ⅲ-0.652 | Ⅲ-0.488 | |
Ⅳ-1.484 | Ⅳ-0.921 | Ⅳ-0.681 | Ⅳ-0.511 |
Tab. 5
Rates of output change in major sectors of the tertiary industry under different COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control scenarios (%)
产业部门 | 一级地区 | 二级地区 | 三级地区 | 四级地区 |
---|---|---|---|---|
批发和零售 | Ⅰ-0.875 | Ⅰ-0.667 | Ⅰ-0.460 | Ⅰ-0.293 |
Ⅱ-0.904 | Ⅱ-0.662 | Ⅱ-0.454 | Ⅱ-0.285 | |
Ⅲ-1.213 | Ⅲ-2.117 | Ⅲ-2.134 | Ⅲ-2.478 | |
Ⅳ-1.226 | Ⅳ-2.128 | Ⅳ-2.146 | Ⅳ-2.486 | |
交通运输、仓储和邮政 | Ⅰ-0.706 | Ⅰ-0.574 | Ⅰ-0.422 | Ⅰ-0.347 |
Ⅱ-1.261 | Ⅱ-0.749 | Ⅱ-0.610 | Ⅱ-0.523 | |
Ⅲ-1.277 | Ⅲ-0.727 | Ⅲ-0.598 | Ⅲ-0.531 | |
Ⅳ-1.293 | Ⅳ-0.744 | Ⅳ-0.613 | Ⅳ-0.545 | |
住宿和餐饮 | Ⅰ-0.671 | Ⅰ-0.601 | Ⅰ-0.387 | Ⅰ-0.360 |
Ⅱ-0.472 | Ⅱ-0.551 | Ⅱ-0.333 | Ⅱ-0.314 | |
Ⅲ-4.833 | Ⅲ-4.146 | Ⅲ-4.221 | Ⅲ-3.770 | |
Ⅳ-4.827 | Ⅳ-4.146 | Ⅳ-4.218 | Ⅳ-3.768 | |
信息传输、软件和 信息技术服务 | Ⅰ-0.419 | Ⅰ-0.330 | Ⅰ-0.177 | Ⅰ-0.118 |
Ⅱ-0.407 | Ⅱ-0.314 | Ⅱ-0.160 | Ⅱ-0.108 | |
Ⅲ1.034 | Ⅲ1.175 | Ⅲ1.433 | Ⅲ1.458 | |
Ⅳ1.034 | Ⅳ1.173 | Ⅳ1.433 | Ⅳ1.458 | |
租赁和商务服务 | Ⅰ-0.927 | Ⅰ-0.840 | Ⅰ-0.582 | Ⅰ-0.514 |
Ⅱ-0.970 | Ⅱ-0.858 | Ⅱ-0.605 | Ⅱ-0.529 | |
Ⅲ-1.053 | Ⅲ-1.020 | Ⅲ-0.721 | Ⅲ-0.650 | |
Ⅳ-1.054 | Ⅳ-1.029 | Ⅳ-0.724 | Ⅳ-0.655 | |
卫生和社会工作 | Ⅰ-0.180 | Ⅰ-0.139 | Ⅰ-0.026 | Ⅰ0.018 |
Ⅱ0.144 | Ⅱ-0.049 | Ⅱ0.070 | Ⅱ0.100 | |
Ⅲ10.606 | Ⅲ9.281 | Ⅲ9.406 | Ⅲ8.736 | |
Ⅳ10.610 | Ⅳ9.283 | Ⅳ9.411 | Ⅳ8.740 | |
文化、体育和娱乐 | Ⅰ-0.610 | Ⅰ-0.717 | Ⅰ-0.471 | Ⅰ-0.390 |
Ⅱ-0.425 | Ⅱ-0.702 | Ⅱ-0.447 | Ⅱ-0.367 | |
Ⅲ-3.472 | Ⅲ-2.346 | Ⅲ-2.324 | Ⅲ-2.024 | |
Ⅳ-3.457 | Ⅳ-2.341 | Ⅳ-2.316 | Ⅳ-2.016 |
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