1982—2015年中国气候变化和人类活动对植被NDVI变化的影响

doi:10.11821/dlxb202005006

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the observed daily temperature and precipitation of the land surface of 603 meteorological stations in China, the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 3rd generation dataset, the changing patterns of NDVI in China during 1982-2015 were investigated and the corresponding contributions of the main driving forces, climatic change and human activities, to these changes were distinguished using the methods of trend analysis and multiple regression residuals analysis. The results showed that vegetation recovered in whole China in research period significantly. Shanghai was the single case with a decrease in growing season NDVI in the selected 32 provincial-level administrative regions, while the growing season NDVI in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Chongqing increased much faster compared with other regions. The climatic change and human activities drove the NDVI change jointly as main forces in China and induced both a rapid increasing trend on the whole and a huge spatial difference. The impacts of climatic change on NDVI change in the growing-season ranged from -0.01×10 ^-3 a ^-1 to 1.05×10 ^-3 a ^-1, while the impacts of human activities changed from -0.32×10 ^-3 a ^-1 to 1.77×10 ^-3 a ^-1. The contributions of climatic change and human activities accounted for 40% and 60%, respectively, to the increase of NDVI in China in the past 34 years. The regions where the contribution rates of human activities were more than 80% were mainly distributed in the central part of the Loess Plateau, the North China Plain, and the northeast and the southwest of China. There were 22 provincial-level regions where the contributions of human activities were more than 50%, and the shares of contribution induced by human activities in Shanghai, Heilongjiang, and Yunnan were much greater than those of any other regions. The results suggest that we should focus more on the role of human activities in vegetation restoration in the whole country.

Key words: vegetation variation, climatic change, human activities, NDVI, residuals analysis, China

JIN Kai, WANG Fei, HAN Jianqiao, SHI Shangyu, DING Wenbin. Contribution of climatic change and human activities to vegetation NDVI change over China during 1982-2015[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(5): 961-974.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Identification criterion and contribution calculation of the drivers of NDVI change

slope(NDVI_obs)^a	驱动因素	驱动因素的划分标准		驱动因素的贡献率(%)
slope(NDVI_obs)^a	驱动因素	slope(NDVI_CC)^b	slope(NDVI_HA)^c	气候变化	人类活动
> 0	CC & HA	> 0	> 0	$slope (NDV I CC) slope (NDV I obs)$	$slope (NDV I HA) slope (NDV I obs)$
	CC	> 0	< 0	100	0
	HA	< 0	> 0	0	100
< 0	CC & HA	< 0	< 0	$slope (NDV I CC) slope (NDV I obs)$	$slope (NDV I HA) slope (NDV I obs)$
	CC	< 0	> 0	100	0
	HA	> 0	< 0	0	100

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

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slope(NDVI)^a	影响程度
< -2.0	明显抑制
-2.0~-1.0	中度抑制
-1.0~-0.2	轻微抑制
-0.2~0.2	基本无影响
0.2~1.0	轻微促进
1.0~2.0	中度促进
≥ 2.0	明显促进

地区	slope (NDVI_obs)^a	对植被恢复的作用		驱动力	地区	slope(NDVI_obs)^a	对植被恢复的作用		驱动力
地区	slope (NDVI_obs)^a	CC^b	HA^c	驱动力	地区	slope(NDVI_obs)^a	CC^b	HA^c	驱动力
上海	-0.33	基本无影响	轻微抑制	CC & HA	海南	1.18	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
西藏	0.04	基本无影响	基本无影响	CC	甘肃	1.39	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
吉林	0.26	基本无影响	基本无影响	CC & HA	河南	1.41	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
黑龙江	0.44	基本无影响	轻微促进	CC & HA	湖北	1.42	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
青海	0.47	轻微促进	基本无影响	CC & HA	湖南	1.43	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
四川	0.51	轻微促进	基本无影响	CC & HA	江西	1.46	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
内蒙古	0.55	基本无影响	轻微促进	CC & HA	贵州	1.54	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
云南	0.64	基本无影响	轻微促进	CC & HA	宁夏	1.55	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
浙江	0.68	轻微促进	基本无影响	CC & HA	安徽	1.58	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA
新疆	0.7	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA	广西	1.62	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
台湾	0.83	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA	北京	1.7	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
天津	0.85	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA	山东	1.74	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
广东	0.9	基本无影响	轻微促进	CC & HA	河北	1.78	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
福建	0.91	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA	重庆	2.16	中度促进	中度促进	CC & HA
江苏	1	轻微促进	轻微促进	CC & HA	陕西	2.24	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA
辽宁	1.1	基本无影响	轻微促进	CC & HA	山西	2.71	轻微促进	中度促进	CC & HA

Contribution of climatic change and human activities to vegetation NDVI change over China during 1982-2015

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