耦合适应力的福州市高温脆弱性评估

doi:10.11821/dlxb201705006

Abstract

Abstract:

The extent of extremely high temperature is expanding under global climate change. The adverse effects of high urban temperatures are worsening, presenting great danger to the environment and human society, and are especially pernicious to urban human-environment compound systems. Adaptation is an important action to cope with the extremely high temperature, and the studies of high temperature vulnerability coupled with the adaptability factors have become the international hot spots and research frontiers. Fuzhou city, one of the high temperature cities in China, was evaluated as a case study in this research. Expert evaluation, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), geographical spatial analysis technologies, questionnaire survey and orderly multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to reconstruct the spatial evaluation index system of urban high temperature susceptibility of coupling adaptability. In this study, the high temperature vulnerability of Fuzhou, its spatial differentiation, scale dependence, hot spots and the influencing factors of adaptability were systematically evaluated. The results indicated that: (1) Six selected indices, namely age, housing area, out-of-home cooling frequency, health condition, degree of medical convenience and government efforts to alleviate the high temperature, had significant impact on city residents' adaptability. (2) The spatial distribution of urban high temperature vulnerability, exposure and adaptability in Fuzhou showed a spatial structure of "core-periphery" , and the high temperature vulnerability of Fuzhou showed the semi-enclosed spatial pattern with the characteristics of "high near the outer and low near the inner area". (3) Under the same background of regional high temperature exposure and susceptibility, the adaptability from individual to community and city government could significantly change the spatial distribution of urban high temperature vulnerability. The research results are expected to further the theoretical progress of urban high temperature vulnerability, and to provide the basis of decision-making for Fuzhou and other cities of the same category.

Key words: urban high temperature, vulnerability, adaptability, evaluation, Fuzhou city

Wei SHUI, Zhichun CHEN, Jieming DENG, Yajing LI, Qianfeng WANG, Wulin WANG, Yiping CHEN. Evaluation of urban high temperature vulnerability of coupling adaptability in Fuzhou, China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(5): 830-849.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	数据来源	指标预处理	指标变量类型
高温脆弱性	暴露性	温度^{[24-25, 47]}	遥感影像数据^①	亮温反演^[53]	连续变量
	暴露性	人口密度^[45]	第六次人口普查数据	-	连续变量
	易损性	植被^[39]	遥感影像数据^①	土壤调节植被指数提取植被	有序分类变量
		水体^[40]	福州市水系图	缓冲区分析	有序分类变量
		土地利用类型^[39]	福州市中心城区用地现状图	土地利用类型重分类^②	有序分类变量
	适应力	性别^[21][54]	问卷调查数据	有序多分类Logistic回归	无序分类变量
		年龄^[21][54]			连续分类变量
		住房建筑面积			连续分类变量
		家中空调数			连续分类变量
		家庭月收入^[55]③			连续分类变量
		受教育程度^[49]④			有序分类变量
		职业^[49]			无序分类变量
		健康状况^[49]⑤			有序分类变量
		消暑食品(药品)预备程度^⑥			有序分类变量
		外出纳凉消暑的频率^⑥			有序分类变量
		主动获取高温信息的频率^⑥			有序分类变量
		对中暑医疗知识的熟悉程度^⑦			有序分类变量
		政府缓解高温力度^⑦			有序分类变量
		就近获得医疗救助的容易程度^[50]⑦			有序分类变量

影响因素	参数估计	标准误差	Wald	df	显著性	95%置信区间
影响因素	参数估计	标准误差	Wald	df	显著性	下限	上限
年龄(x₂)：	0.032^*	0.013	6.356	1	0.012	-0.007	-0.056
住房建筑面积(x₃)：	-0.006^*	0.003	5.062	1	0.024	-0.011	-0.001
健康情况(x₄)：
不好	-2.963^*	1.323	5.012	1	0.025	-5.557	-0.369
一般	-2.321^**	0.582	15.899	1	0.000	-3.462	-1.180
良好	-1.426^**	0.540	6.979	1	0.008	-2.483	-0.368
参照组：很佳	0^a	-	-	0	-	-	-
外出纳凉消暑频率(x₁₀)：
从不	-2.202^*	1.024	4.629	1	0.031	-4.208	-0.196
偶尔	-2.134^*	1.032	4.273	1	0.039	-4.157	-0.111
较少	-2.273^*	1.027	4.901	1	0.027	-4.286	-0.261
参照组：总是	0^a	-	-	0	-	-	-
政府缓解高温力度(x₁₃)：
较小	-1.255^*	0.616	4.150	1	0.042	-2.462	-0.048
参照组：很大	0^a	-	-	0	-	-	-
就近获得医疗救助容易程度(x₁₄)：
很不容易	-2.644^**	0.710	13.874	1	0.000	-4.035	-1.253
不容易	-1.362^**	0.520	6.866	1	0.009	-2.381	-0.343
一般	-1.260^**	0.467	7.260	1	0.007	-2.176	-0.343
参照组：很容易	0^a	-	-	0	-	-	-

目标层	准则层	权重	指标层	权重
高温脆弱性	暴露性	0.352	温度	0.633
	暴露性	0.352	人口密度	0.367
	易损性	0.252	植被	0.335
			水体	0.322
			土地利用类型	0.343
	适应力	0.396	住房建筑面积	0.310
			65岁以上人口比例	0.334
			医疗机构分布	0.356

等级	鼓楼区			台江区		晋安区			仓山区			中心区			外围区
等级	面积		占比		面积	占比		面积		占比	面积	占比	面积	占比	面积	占比
低	2.00	5.33		1.09	6.02	11.87	16.89		11.19	13.14		0.91	2.12		25.16	14.98
次低	7.04	18.81		1.19	6.57	21.69	30.85		26.67	31.32		1.66	3.85		54.92	32.71
中	12.12	32.39		2.89	15.94	21.20	30.15		33.69	39.56		4.94	11.45		65.05	38.74
次高	9.06	24.22		4.35	23.98	13.20	18.77		13.20	15.50		17.77	41.18		22.02	13.12
高	7.20	19.25		8.62	47.49	2.35	3.34		0.41	0.48		17.87	41.40		0.76	0.45
合计	37.43	100.00		18.16	100.00	70.32	100.00		85.16	100.00		43.16	100.00		167.91	100.00

等级	鼓楼区			台江区		晋安区			仓山区			中心区			外围区
等级	面积		占比		面积	占比		面积		占比	面积	占比	面积	占比	面积	占比
低	13.01	34.77		3.77	20.74	23.98	34.11		28.86	33.89		7.51	17.40		62.10	36.98
次低	0.71	1.89		0.43	2.38	0.97	1.39		4.92	5.78		0.92	2.12		6.12	3.64
中	7.34	19.62		3.07	16.93	13.56	19.29		13.48	15.83		7.82	18.12		29.64	17.65
次高	3.92	10.47		3.06	16.83	10.16	14.45		13.63	16.00		5.04	11.68		25.74	15.33
高	12.45	33.25		7.83	43.12	21.63	30.77		24.27	28.51		21.87	50.68		44.31	26.39
合计	37.43	100.00		18.16	100.00	70.32	100.00		85.16	100.00		43.16	100.00		167.91	100.00

Evaluation of urban high temperature vulnerability of coupling adaptability in Fuzhou, China

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类型	代表区域	暴露性	易损性	适应力	脆弱性
中心商住区	洋中街道	高	高	强	冷点区
工业区	晋安工业区	高	高	弱	热点区
中心公园区	西湖公园	低	低	强	冷点区
城市新建区	金山街道	低	低	弱	热点区

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等级	鼓楼区			台江区		晋安区			仓山区			中心区			外围区
等级	面积		占比		面积	占比		面积		占比	面积	占比	面积	占比	面积	占比
低	0	0		0	0	3.50	4.98		58.34	68.51		0.68	1.58		61.16	36.49
次低	17.14	45.79		3.03	16.70	40.53	57.64		17.36	20.38		4.41	10.22		73.64	43.94
中	9.49	25.34		3.17	17.48	15.92	22.63		4.23	4.97		7.52	17.42		25.29	15.09
次高	6.58	17.58		3.79	20.89	8.46	12.04		4.02	4.72		15.40	35.69		7.45	4.45
高	4.23	11.30		8.16	44.93	1.90	2.70		1.22	1.43		15.15	35.10		0.36	0.21
合计	37.43	100.00		18.16	100.00	70.32	100.00		85.16	100.00		43.16	100.00		167.91	100.00

等级	鼓楼区			台江区		晋安区			仓山区			中心区			外围区
等级	面积		占比		面积	占比		面积		占比	面积	占比	面积	占比	面积	占比
低	2.40	6.42		2.71	14.94	15.80	22.47		4.35	5.11		4.54	10.51		20.73	12.37
次低	11.50	30.73		2.90	15.97	15.59	22.18		17.82	20.93		6.58	15.24		41.24	24.61
中	10.31	27.55		4.83	26.59	16.18	23.01		20.68	24.28		11.77	27.27		40.23	24.00
次高	10.41	27.83		5.94	32.71	15.62	22.22		23.68	27.80		14.76	34.21		40.89	24.40
高	2.76	7.39		1.78	9.79	6.93	9.86		18.55	21.79		5.51	12.77		24.52	14.63
合计	37.43	100.00		18.16	100.00	70.32	100.00		85.16	100.00		43.16	100.00		167.91	100.00