东南沿海前汛期降水极值变化特征及归因分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201601012

Abstract

Abstract:

This study analyzed the variation of extreme precipitation by introducing Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) Model in the non-stationary frequency analysis based on the precipitation extreme series in the first rainy season (April, May, June) in the period of 1960-2012 derived from 79 meteorological stations in the southeast coastal region of China which covers Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan. The greenhouse gas emissions index represented by human activities and comprehensive climatic index were built by principal component analysis (PCA). Simultaneously, contribution analysis method and GAMLSS model are applied to identify the impact of climate change and human activities on precipitation extremes considering both factors. The results show that: (1) The areas with significant increase and strong enhanced variation of precipitation extremes are mainly located in the northeast of Zhejiang, central-northern and western coastal Guangdong, and eastern Fujian. (2) There is a significant correlation between human activity increase and precipitation extreme variability, especially in the developed areas. The contribution of human activity to precipitation extremes in the stage of rapid socio-economic development (1986-2012) is much greater than that in the stage of slow socio-economic development (1960-1985), especially in Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces. (3) The northeast of Zhejiang, much of Fujian and the central-northern and western coastal Guangdong are high risk areas in terms of extreme precipitation. Thus, we should strengthen the risk prevention for extreme precipitation and its secondary disasters.

Key words: extreme precipitation, non-stationary, first rainy season, disaster risk, the southeast coastal region of China

HUANG Jie,GAO Lu,CHEN Xingwei,CHEN Ying,LIU Meibing. Variation of extreme precipitation and its causes during the first rainy season in the southeast coastal region of China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(1): 152-165.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 1

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

Fig. 7

Fig. 8

Tab. 2

References 37

[1]	Wang Zhifu, Qian Yongfu.Frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in China. Advances in Water Science, 2009, 20(1): 1-9.
	[王志福, 钱永甫. 中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征. 水科学进展, 2009, 20(1): 1-9.]
[2]	Wang Baolong, Zhang Mingjun, Wei Junlin, et al.The change in extreme events of temperature and precipitation over northwest China in recent 50 years. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(10): 1720-1733.
	[汪宝龙, 张明军, 魏军林, 等. 西北地区近50a气温和降水极端事件的变化特征. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(10): 1720-1733.]
[3]	Yuan Wende, Zheng Jiangkun, Dong Kui.Spatial and temporal variation in extreme precipitation events in Southwestern China during 1962-2012. Resources Science, 2014, 36(4): 766-772.
	[袁文德, 郑江坤, 董奎. 1962-2012年西南地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征. 资源科学, 2014, 36(4): 766-772.]
[4]	Ren Zhengguo, Zhang Mingjun, Wang Shengjie, et al.Changes in precipitation extremes in South China during 1961-2011. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(5): 640-649.
	[任正果, 张明军, 王圣杰, 等. 1961-2011年中国南方地区极端降水事件变化. 地理学报, 2014, 69(5): 640-649.]
[5]	Liu R, Liu S C, Ralph J C, et al.Trends of extreme precipitation in eastern China and their possible causes. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 32(8): 1027-1037.
[6]	Zhang D D, Yan D H, Wang Y C, et al.Changes in extreme precipitation in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin of China during 1960-2010. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2015, 120(1): 195-209.
[7]	IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis: The Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
[8]	Ohba M, Kadokura S, Yoshida Y, et al.Anomalous weather patterns in relation to heavy precipitation events in Japan during the Baiu Season. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2015, 16(2): 688-701.
[9]	Ohba M.Important factors for long-term change in ENSO transitivity. International Journal of Climatology, 2013, 33(6): 1495-1509.
[10]	Xie S P, Hu K M, Hafner J, et al.Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo-western Paciﬁc climate during the summer following El Nino. Journal of Climate, 2009, 22(3): 730-747.
[11]	Du Y, Yang L, Xie S P, et al.Tropical Indian Ocean inﬂuence on Northwest Paciﬁc tropical cyclones in summer following strong El Nino. Journal of Climate, 2011, 24(1): 315-322.
[12]	Chan J C L, Zhou W. PDO, ENSO and the early summer monsoon rainfall over south China. Geophysical Research Letters, 2005, 32, L08810. doi: 10.1029/2004GL022015.
[13]	Wan S Q, Hu Y L, You Z Y, et al.Extreme monthly precipitation pattern in China and its dependence on Southern Oscillation. International Journal of Climatology, 2013, 33(4): 806-814.
[14]	Ding Yihui.Human activity and the global climate change and its impact on water resources. China Water Resources, 2008(2): 20-27.
	[丁一汇. 人类活动与全球气候变化及其对水资源的影响. 中国水利, 2008(2): 20-27.]
[15]	Qin Dahe, Chen Yiyu, Ding Yihui, et al.Climate and Environment Changes in China (Volume 1). Beijing: Science Press, 2005.
	[秦大河, 陈宜瑜, 丁一汇, 等. 中国气候与环境演变(上卷): 气候与环境的演变及预测. 北京: 科学出版社, 2005.]
[16]	Gao X J, Zhao Z C, Ding Y H, et al.Climate change due to greenhouse effects in China as simulated by a regional climate model. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2001, 18(6): 1224-1230.
[17]	Zou Yongchang, Yang Xiuqun, Pan Zhixiang, et al.Effect of CO2 doubling on extreme precipitation in eastern China. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2008, 4(2): 84-89.
	[邹用昌, 杨修群, 潘志祥, 等. CO2倍增对我国东部极端降水的影响. 气候变化研究进展, 2008, 4(2): 84-89.]
[18]	Fu C B.Potential impacts of human-induced land cover change on East Asia monsoon. Global and Planetary Change, 2003, 37(3/4): 219-229.
[19]	Liu Jiyuan, Shao Quanqin, Yan Xiaodong, et al.An overview of the progress and research framework on the effects of land use change upon global climate. Advances in Earth Science, 2011, 26(10): 1015-1022.
	[刘纪远, 邵全琴, 延晓冬, 等. 土地利用变化对全球气候影响的研究进展与方法初探. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(10): 1015-1022.]
[20]	Salazar A, Baldi G, Hirota M, et al.Land use and land cover change impacts on the regional climate of non-Amazonian South America: A review. Global and Planetary Change, 2015, 128: 103-119.
[21]	Gilroy K L, McCuen R H. A nonstationary ﬂood frequency analysis method to adjust for future climate change and urbanization. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 414: 40-48.
[22]	Milly P C D, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, et al. Climate change - Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science, 2008, 319(5863): 573-574.
[23]	Rigby R A, Stasinopoulos D M.Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 2005, 54(3): 507-554.
[24]	Villarini G, Smith J A, Napolitano F.Nonstationary modeling of a long record of rainfall and temperature over Rome. Advances in Water Resources, 2010, 33(10): 1256-1267.
[25]	Jiang Cong, Xiong Lihua.Trend analysis for the annual discharge series of the Yangtze River at the Yichang hydrological station based on GAMLSS. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67(11): 1505-1514.
	[江聪, 熊立华. 基于GAMLSS模型的宜昌站年径流序列趋势分析. 地理学报, 2012, 67(11): 1505-1514.]
[26]	Villarini G, Smith J A, Serinaldi F, et al.Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin. Advances in Water Resources, 2009, 32(8): 1255-1266.
[27]	Zhang Q, Gu X H, Vijay P S, et al.Evaluation of ﬂood frequency under non-stationarity resulting from climate indices and reservoir indices in the East River basin, China. Journal of Hydrology, 2015, 527: 565-575.
[28]	Wang Jing'ai, Zhou Hongjian, Yuan Yi, et al. Regional Disaster System and the Risk Prevention Mode of Typhoon Disaster Chain: A Case Study of Guangdong. Beijing: China Environmental Science Press, 2013: 31-36.
	[王静爱, 周洪建, 袁艺, 等. 区域灾害系统与台风灾害链风险防范模式: 以广东为例. 北京: 中国环境出版社, 2013: 31-36.]
[29]	Wang Shuai, Pan Benfeng, Zhang Jianhui, et al.Comparision study on the calculation methods of ambient air quality comprehensive index. Environmental Monitoring in China, 2014, 30(6): 46-52.
	[王帅, 潘本锋, 张建辉, 等. 环境空气质量综合指数计算方法比选研究. 中国环境监测, 2014, 30(6): 46-52.]
[30]	Karl T R, Knight R W.Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998, 79(2): 231-241.
[31]	Gong Daoyi.Arctic oscillation's significance for precipitation of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Meteorological Monthly, 2003, 29(6): 3-6.
	[龚道溢. 北极涛动对东亚夏季降水的预测意义. 气象, 2003, 29(6): 3-6.]
[32]	Wang Lin, Chen Wen, Feng Ruiquan, et al.The seasonal march of the North Pacific Oscillation and its association with the interannual variations of China's climate in boreal winter and spring. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2011, 35(3): 393-402.
	[王林, 陈文, 冯瑞权, 等. 北太平洋涛动的季节演变及其与我国冬春气候异常的联系. 大气科学, 2011, 35(3): 393-402.]
[33]	Hu Guifang, Zou Jin, Zhang Xuan.Influences of Nino3 SST rising in the second half year on East Asia spring general circulation and Shandong spring precipitation. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, 2005, 16(6): 772-778.
	[胡桂芳, 邹瑾, 张璇. 下半年Nino3区海表升温对东亚春季大气环流及山东春季降水的影响. 应用气象学报, 2005, 16(6): 772-778.]
[34]	Joint Research Center. Global emissions EDGAR v4.2 (November 2011) [R/OL]. 2011 [2012-7-25]. .
[35]	Huff F A, Changnon S A.Climatological assessment of urban effects on precipitation at St. Louis. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 1972, 11(5): 823-842.
[36]	Rosenfeld D.Suppression of rain and snow by urban and industrial air pollution. Science, 2000, 287(5459): 1793-1796.
[37]	Liang Ping, Ding Yihui, He Jinhai, et al.The study on relationship between urbanization speed and the spatial distribution of precipitation in Shanghai. Journal of Tropical Meteorology, 2011, 27(4): 475-483.
	[梁萍, 丁一汇, 何金海, 等. 上海地区城市化速度与降水空间分布变化的关系研究. 热带气象学报, 2011, 27(4): 475-483.]

气候指数	WP	NPO	PDO	AO	SOI	Nino 3	综合指数
最小相关系数	-0.39	-0.29	-0.35	-0.32	-0.30	-0.28	0.03
最大相关系数	0.29	0.33	0.25	0.29	0.41	0.52	0.50
相关性显著站点个数	6	5	4	7	7	7	25

站点	最优分布	AIC值	均值	方差	偏态系数	峰度系数	Filliben系数
杭州	IGAMMA	487.63	0.003	1.01	-0.03	1.88	0.984
浦城	IGAMMA	514.22	0.008	1.01	-0.18	2.29	0.992
韶关	IG	516.03	-0.015	1.01	-0.10	2.37	0.996
增城	IG	517.38	0.006	1.02	0.03	2.04	0.984
阳江	SN2	620.74	-0.151	1.17	0.34	2.15	0.983
高要	IG	531.01	0.017	1.03	0.15	2.29	0.995

Variation of extreme precipitation and its causes during the first rainy season in the southeast coastal region of China

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 10

References 37

Related Articles 9

Metrics

Comments

[1]	WEN Qingzhi, SUN Peng, ZHANG Qiang, YAO Rui. A multi-scalar drought index for global warming: The non-stationary standardized precipitation evaporation index (NSPEI) and spatio-temporal patterns of future drought in China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1465-1482.
[2]	LI Shuangshuang, WANG Chengbo, YAN Junping, LIU Xianfeng. Variability of the event-based extreme precipitation in the south and north Qinling Mountains [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(5): 989-1007.
[3]	WANG Fang, ZHANG Jintao. Response of precipitation change in Central Asia to emission scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(1): 25-40.
[4]	Xihui GU, Qiang ZHANG, Dongdong KONG. Spatiotemporal patterns of extreme precipitation with their responses to summer temperature [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(5): 718-730.
[5]	SHE Dunxian, XIA Jun, ZHANG Yongyong, DU Hong. The Trend Analysis and Statistical Distribution of Extreme Rainfall Events in the Huaihe River Basin in the Past 50 Years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(9): 1200-1210.
[6]	ZHANG Qiang, LI Jianfeng, CHEN Xiaohong, BAI Yungang. Spatial Variability of Probability Distribution of Extreme Precipitation in Xinjiang [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2011, 66(1): 3-12.
[7]	YIN Zhan'e1; XU Shiyuan2; YIN Jie2; WANG Jun2. Small-scale Based Scenario Modeling and Disaster Risk Assessment of Urban Rainstorm Water-logging [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65(5): 553-562.
[8]	HU Haoran,MAO Xiaoliang,LIANG Ling. Temporal and Spatial Variations of Extreme Precipitation Events of Flood Season over Sichuan Basin in Last 50 Years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64(3): 278-288.
[9]	YANG Lianmei. Climate Change of Extreme Precipitation in Xinjiang [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(4): 577-583.