1981-2014年西藏各时次气温的变化趋势分析

doi:10.11821/dlxb201603006

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on 6-hourly (02:00, 08:00, 14:00 and 20:00 Bejing time (BJT)) air temperature data of 38 meteorological stations over Tibet from 1981 to 2014, the spatial-temporal distribution and climate abrupt characteristics of air temperature are analyzed by using the methods including linear regression and Mann-Kendall test. Also, the correlation between the change rates of surface air temperature and latitude (longitude, and altitude) is discussed. The results showed that, the seasonal air temperature in Tibet exhibits unanimously increasing trend with a rate of 0.14-0.80 ℃/10a during the past 34 years, and the most significant increase occurred in winter. In terms of the rate per decade for the 6-hourly air temperature observations, 08:00 BJT during summer experienced the highest increasing rate, while 14:00 BJT showed the highest values for the other three seasons . The maximum rate for the increasing air temperature ranges from 0.36 ℃/10a (P < 0.001) to 0.94 ℃/10a (P < 0.001). Among all the 38 stations, there were only 32% (about 12) showing the peak time with the highest rate of changes at 08:00 BJT air temperature, which are predominantly located in much of Qamdo, Ngari prefecture and at weather stations such as Nagqu, Lhasa and Xigazê, while the rest of weather stations showed the highest increasing rate at 14:00 BJT. In spring and autumn, as the increasing rate was related to longitude, it has a larger rate in western than that in eastern Tibet. In winter, the highest increasing rate of air temperature occurred in the regions with higher altitudes and latitudes, and the higher increasing rate of air temperature was observed at higher latitudes in summer. As for the decadal characteristics of 6-hourly air temperature, the 1980s experienced negative anomalies, compared with positive anomalies in the first decade of the 21st century. Additionally, it was found with abrupt change test that at the annual and seasonal scales most of hourly air temperatures have abrupt change. For instance, the abrupt change of all four hourly air temperatures in summer occurred in the first decade of the 21st century. In winter, the abrupt change of air temperature at 02:00 and 08:00 BJT occurred in the late 1990s, while that at 14:00 and 20:00 BJT was found in the first 10 years of the 21st century. As can be seen in the article, many factors such as topography, various meteorological elements in the plateau and the atmospheric circulation play important roles in the surface air temperature change in Tibet.

Key words: 6-hourly air temperature, linear trend, climate abrupt change, Tibet

Jun DU, Pengfei MA, Panduo. Spatial-temporal change of air temperature at 02, 08, 14 and 20 Bejing time over Tibet during 1981-2014[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016, 71(3): 422-432.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

Tab. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Tab. 4

Fig. 6

Tab. 5

References 31

[1]	IPCC. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Final Draft Underlying Scientific-Technical Assessment [R/OL]. [2013.10.30]. .
[2]	China Meteorological Administration.Climate and Environment in China. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2006.
	[中国气象局. 中国气候与环境演变. 北京: 气象出版社, 2006.]
[3]	Yao Tandong, Liu Xiaodong, Wang Ninglian.Amplitude of climatic change in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2000, 45(1): 98-106. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0023-074X.2000.01.021
	[姚檀栋, 刘晓东, 王宁练. 青藏高原地区的气候变化幅度问题. 科学通报, 2000, 45(1): 98-106.] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0023-074X.2000.01.021
[4]	Feng Song, Tang Maocang, Wang Dongmei.The new proof of Qing-Zang Plateau as the startup area of climatic change in China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 1998, 43(6): 633-636. doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0032-1
	[冯松, 汤懋苍, 王冬梅. 青藏高原是我国气候变化启动区的新证据. 科学通报, 1998, 43(6): 633-636.] doi: 10.1007/s00376-999-0032-1
[5]	Pan Baotian, Li Jijun.Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: A driver and amplifier of the global climatic change. Journal of Lanzhou University (Natural Sciences), 1996, 32(1): 108-115.
	[潘保田, 李吉均. 青藏高原:全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器: III. 青藏高原隆起对气候变化的影响. 兰州大学学报(自然科学版), 1996, 32(1): 108-115.]
[6]	Prell W L, Kutzbach J E.Sensitivity of the Indian monsoon to forcing parameters and implications for its evolution. Nature, 1992, 360(6405): 647-652.
[7]	Wu G, Liu Y, He B, et al.Thermal controls on the Asian summer monsoon open. Scientific Reports, 2012. doi: 10.1038/srep00404. doi: 10.1038/srep00404 pmid: 22582141
[8]	Wu Guoxiong, Zhang Yongsheng.Thermal and mechanical forcing of the Tibetan Plateau and the asian monsoon onset. (Part I): Situating of the onset. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1998, 22(6): 825-838. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1998.06.03
	[吴国雄, 张永生. 青藏高原的热力和机械强迫作用以及亚洲季风的爆发: I. 爆发地点. 大气科学, 1998, 22(6): 825-838.] doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1998.06.03
[9]	Yeh T.Some aspects of the thermal influences of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau on the atmospheric circulation. Archives for Meteorology, Geophysics, and Bioclimatology, 1982, 31(3): 205-220. doi: 10.1007/BF02258032
[10]	Zhou Xiuji, Zhao Ping, Chen Junming, et al.Impacts of thermodynamic processes over the Tibetan Plateau on the Northern Hemispheric climate. Science in China (Series D: Earth Sciences), 2009, 39(11): 1473-1486.
	[周秀骥, 赵平, 陈军明, 等. 青藏高原热力作用对北半球气候影响的研究. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 2009, 39(11):1473-1486.]
[11]	Li Lin, Chen Xiaoguang, Wang Zhenyu, et al.Climate change and its regional differences over the Tibetan Plateau. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2010, 6(3): 181-186. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2010.03.005
	[李林, 陈晓光, 王振宇, 等. 青藏高原区域气候变化及其差异性研究. 气候变化研究进展, 2010, 6(3): 181-186.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2010.03.005
[12]	Ding Yihui, Zhang Li.Intercomparison of the time for climate abrupt change between the Tibetan Plateau and other regions in China. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2008 , 32(4): 794-805. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.04.08
	[丁一汇, 张莉. 青藏高原与中国其他地区气候突变时间的比较. 大气科学, 2008, 32(4): 794-805.] doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2008.04.08
[13]	Wei Zhigang, Huang Ronghui, Dong Wenjie.Interannual and interdecadal variations of air temperature and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2003, 27(2): 157-170.
	[韦志刚, 黄荣辉, 董文杰. 青藏高原气温和降水的年际和年代际变化. 大气科学, 2003, 27(2): 157-170.]
[14]	Wu Shaohong,Yin Yunhe, Zheng Du, et al.Climate changes in the Tibetan Plateau during the last three decades. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2005, 60(1): 3-11. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2005.01.001
	[吴绍洪, 尹云鹤, 郑度, 等. 青藏高原近30年气候变化趋势. 地理学报, 2005, 60(1): 3-11.] doi: 10.3321/j.issn:0375-5444.2005.01.001
[15]	Ding Mingjun, Li Lanhui, Zhang Yili, et al.Temperature change and its elevation dependency on the Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity. Resources Science, 2014, 36(7): 1509-1518.
	[丁明军, 李兰晖, 张镱锂, 等. 1971-2012 年青藏高原及周边地区气温变化特征及其海拔敏感性分析. 资源科学, 2014, 36(7): 1509-1518.]
[16]	Du Jun.Change of temperature in Tibet Plateau from 1961 to 2000. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2001, 56(6): 682-690.
	[杜军. 西藏高原近40年的气温变化. 地理学报, 2001, 56(6): 682-690.].
[17]	Tan Chunping, Yang Jisnping, Mi Rui.Analysis of the climatic change characteristics in the southern Tibetan Plateau from 1971 to 2007. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2010, 32(6): 1111-1120.
	[谭春萍, 杨建平, 米睿. 1971-2007年青藏高原南部气候变化特征分析. 冰川冻土, 2010, 32(6): 1111-1120.]
[18]	You Q, Kang S, Pepin N, et al.Relationship between temperature trend magnitude,elevation and mean temperature in the Tibetan Plateau from homogenized surface stations and reanalysis data. Global and Planetary Change, 2010, 71(1/2): 124-133. doi: 10.1146/annurev.psych.60.110707.163625
[19]	Jiang Yongjian, Li Shijie, Shen Defu, et al.Climate change and its impact on the lake environment in the Tibetan Plateau in 1971-2008. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2012, 32(12): 1503-1512.
	[姜永见, 李世杰, 沈德福, 等. 青藏高原近40年来气候变化特征及湖泊环境响应. 地理科学, 2012, 32(12): 1503-1512.]
[20]	Song Ci, Fei Tao, Zhou Chenghu.Research progresses of surface temperature characteristic change over Tibetan Plateau since 1960. Progress in Geography, 2012, 31(11): 1503-1509. doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2012.11.011
	[宋辞, 裴韬, 周成虎. 1960年以来青藏高原气温变化研究进展. 地理科学进展, 2012, 31(11): 1503-1509.] doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2012.11.011
[21]	Liu Guifang, Lu Heli.Basic characteristics of major climatic factors on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in recent 45 years. Geographical Research, 2010, 29(12): 2281-2288.
	[刘桂芳, 卢鹤立. 1961-2005年来青藏高原主要气候因子的基本特征. 地理研究, 2010, 29(12): 2281-2288.]
[22]	Liu Xiaodong, Hou Ping.Relationship between the climatic warming over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surrounding areas in recent 30 years and the elevation. Plateau Meteorology, 1998, 17(3): 245-249.
	[刘晓东, 侯萍. 青藏高原及其邻近地区近30年气候变暖与海拔高度的关系. 高原气象, 1998, 17(3): 245-249.]
[23]	Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Shi Guangyu, et al.National assessment report of climate change (I): Climate change in China and its future trend. Advances in Climate Change Research, 2006, 2(1): 3-8. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2006.01.001
	[丁一汇, 任国玉, 石广玉, 等. 气候变化国家评价报告(I): 中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势. 气候变化研究进展, 2006, 2(1): 3-8.] doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2006.01.001
[24]	Wei Fengying.Statistics Technology of Diagnose and Forecast of Modern Climate. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 1999.
	[魏凤英. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术. 北京: 气象出版社, 1999.]
[25]	You Q L, Ren G Y, Fraedrich K, et al.Winter temperature extremes in China and their possible causes. International Journal of Climatology, 2013, 33(6): 1444-1455. doi: 10.1002/joc.3525
[26]	Gao Hui.Comparison of four East Asian winter monsoon indices. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2007, 65(2): 272-279. doi: 10.11676/qxxb2007.026
	[高辉. 东亚冬季风指数及其对东亚大气环流异常的表征. 气象学报, 2007, 65(2): 272-279.] doi: 10.11676/qxxb2007.026
[27]	Wu Bingyi.Weakening of Indian summer monsoon in recent decades. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2005, 22(1): 21-29. doi: 10.1007/BF02930866
[28]	Duan A M, Wu G X.Weakening trend in the atmospheric heat source over the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades I. Observations. Journal of Climate, 2008, 21(31): 3149-3164.
[29]	Suh M S, Lee D K.Impacts of land use/cover changes on surface climate over East Asia for extreme climate cases using RegCM2. Journal of Geophysical Research, 2004, 109(109): 127-142. doi: 10.1029/2003JD003681. doi: 10.1029/2003JD003681
[30]	Wu L Y, Zhang J Y, Dong W J.Vegetation effects on mean daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures over China. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2011, 56(9): 900-905. doi: 10.1007/s11434-011-4349-7
[31]	Zhao M, Pitman A J.The impact of land covers change and increasing carbon dioxide on the extreme and frequency of maximum temperature and convective precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 2002, 29(6): 21-24. doi: 10.1029/ 2001GL013476. doi: 10.1029/2001GL013476

时次	冬季	春季	夏季	秋季	年
02时	0.56^***	0.33^***	0.28^***	0.32^**	0.38^**
08时	0.53^***	0.42^***	0.43^***	0.38^***	0.45^***
14时	0.80^***	0.48^***	0.31^**	0.43^***	0.52^***
20时	0.55^***	0.32^***	0.14	0.23^**	0.32^***

季节	年代	02时	08时	14时	20时
冬季	1981-1990	-0.5	-0.5	-0.6	-0.4
	1991-2000	-0.4	-0.3	-0.6	-0.6
	2001-2010	0.9	0.8	1.2	1.0
春季	1981-1990	-0.5	-0.5	-0.6	-0.5
	1991-2000	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
	2001-2010	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.4
夏季	1981-1990	-0.2	-0.4	-0.1	0.0
	1991-2000	-0.1	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2
	2001-2010	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.2
秋季	1981-1990	-0.4	-0.5	-0.4	-0.3
	1991-2000	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.0
	2001-2010	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.4
年	1981-1990	-0.4	-0.5	-0.4	-0.3
	1991-2000	-0.1	-0.1	-0.2	-0.2
	2001-2010	0.5	0.6	0.6	0.5

季节	地理参数	02时	08时	14时	20时
冬季	经度	-0.03	-0.09	-0.06	0.07
	纬度	0.53^***	0.54^***	0.27	0.51^***
	海拔高度	0.46^**	0.42^**	0.39^*	0.43^***
春季	经度	-0.46^**	-0.27	-0.43^**	-0.62^***
	纬度	0.14	0.07	0.27	0.21
	海拔高度	0.24	0.21	0.21	0.16
夏季	经度	-0.11	-0.17	-0.13	-0.03
	纬度	0.51^**	0.61^***	0.46^**	0.20
	海拔高度	0.21	0.36^*	0.08	0.03
秋季	经度	-0.35^*	-0.36^*	-0.45^**	-0.24
	纬度	0.43^**	0.49^**	0.08	0.27
	海拔高度	0.31	0.39^*	0.28	0.22
年	经度	-0.26	-0.25	-0.30	-0.27
	纬度	0.49^**	0.49^**	0.32	0.40
	海拔高度	0.38^*	0.41^*	0.36^*	0.37^*

季节	时次	亚洲极涡面积指数	亚洲极涡强度指数	西太平洋副高面积指数	西太平洋副高强度指数	西太平洋副高脊线指数	西太平洋副高西脊点	印缅槽指数	高原A	高原B
冬季	02点	-0.07	-0.31	-0.02	-0.09	0.22	0.09	0.38^*	0.42^*	0.24
	08点	-0.06	-0.34^*	-0.01	-0.08	0.21	0.10	0.38^*	0.41^*	0.23
	14点	-0.10	-0.23	-0.04	-0.14	0.24	0.09	0.36^*	0.44^**	0.26
	20点	-0.15	-0.22	0.03	-0.07	0.33	0.01	0.42^*	0.49^**	0.32
	平均	-0.10	-0.28	-0.01	-0.10	0.26	0.08	0.39^*	0.46^**	0.27
春季	02点	0.03	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	0.03	0.07	0.26	0.66^***	0.41^*
	08点	-0.04	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.10	0.10	0.19	0.68^***	0.50^**
	14点	0.06	-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	0.05	0.08	0.20	0.66^***	0.44^**
	20点	0.08	0.02	-0.05	0.01	0.01	0.05	0.25	0.65^***	0.39^*
	平均	0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	0.05	0.08	0.23	0.68^***	0.44^**
夏季	02点	-0.30	-0.40^*	0.34^*	0.37^*	0.09	-0.42^**	0.22	0.17	-0.01
	08点	-0.42^**	-0.47^**	0.25	0.27	0.23	-0.33	0.26	0.19	0.01
	14点	-0.07	-0.15	0.29	0.32	0.00	-0.37^*	0.06	0.07	-0.05
	20点	0.02	-0.07	0.32	0.35^*	-0.11	-0.36^*	0.03	0.07	-0.02
	平均	-0.21	-0.30	0.33	0.36^*	0.05	-0.41^*	0.15	0.13	-0.02
秋季	02点	-0.30	-0.09	0.19	0.15	0.19	-0.12	0.10	0.53^**	0.40^*
	08点	-0.33	0.02	0.16	0.11	0.25	-0.08	0.16	0.65^***	0.53^**
	14点	-0.13	-0.13	0.14	0.13	0.19	-0.02	0.00	0.33^*	0.19
	20点	-0.18	-0.09	0.18	0.16	0.15	-0.12	0.02	0.39^*	0.27
	平均	-0.25	-0.08	0.18	0.15	0.21	-0.09	0.07	0.51^**	0.37^*

Spatial-temporal change of air temperature at 02, 08, 14 and 20 Bejing time over Tibet during 1981-2014

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Cited

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 11

References 31

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

季节	02时	08时	14时	20时
冬季	1999	1998	2004	2001
春季	/	2002	2001	/
夏季	2002	2002	2006	2005
秋季	1989	1987	1998	1994
年	1996	1995	2001	1997

[1]	HOU Guangliang, , ZHU Yan, PANG Longhui. Communication route and its evolution on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during the prehistoric time [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(5): 1294-1313.
[2]	FENG Zhiming, YOU Zhen, YANG Yanzhao, SHI Hui. Comprehensive evaluation of resource and environment carrying capacity of Tibet based on a three-dimensional tetrahedron model [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(3): 645-662.
[3]	HUANG Hai, TIAN You, LIU Jiankang, ZHANG Jiajia, YANG Dongxu, YANG Shun. The mechanism and sensitivity analysis of soil freeze-thaw erosion on slope in eastern Tibet [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2021, 76(1): 87-100.
[4]	SUN Siao, WANG Jing, QI Wei. Urban-and-rural virtual water trade of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Patterns and influencing factors [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1346-1358.
[5]	FENG Zhiming, LI Wenjun, LI Peng, XIAO Chiwei. Relief degree of land surface and its geographical meanings in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1359-1372.
[6]	LIANG Xinyue, XU Mengzhen, LYU Liqun, CUI Yifei, ZHANG Fengbao. Geomorphological characteristics of debris flow gullies on the edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1373-1385.
[7]	FENG Yuxue, LI Guangdong. Interaction between urbanization and eco-environment in Tibetan Plateau [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1386-1405.
[8]	XU Jun, XU Yang, HU Lei, WANG Zhenbo. Discovering spatio-temporal patterns of human activity on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on crowdsourcing positioning data [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1406-1417.
[9]	WANG Nan, WANG Huimeng, DU Yunyan, YI Jiawei, LIU Zhang, TU Wenna. Spatiotemporal patterns of in- and out-bound population flows of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(7): 1418-1431.
[10]	QI Wei, LIU Shenghe, ZHOU Liang. Regional differentiation of population in Tibetan Plateau: Insight from the "Hu Line" [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(2): 255-267.
[11]	GAO Xing, KANG Shichang, LIU Qingsong, CHEN Pengfei, DUAN Zongqi. Magnetic characteristics of Qiangyong Co Lake sediments, southern Tibetan Plateau and its environmental significance during 1899-2011 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(1): 68-81.
[12]	FAN Keke, ZHANG Qiang, SUN Peng, SONG Changqing, YU Huiqian, ZHU Xiudi, SHEN Zexi. Effect of soil moisture variation on near-surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(1): 82-97.
[13]	NIU Fangqu, FENG Zhiming, LIU Hui. Evaluation of resources environmental carrying capacity and its application in industrial restructuring in Tibet, China [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(8): 1563-1575.
[14]	GUO Chao,MENG Hongwei,MA Yuzhen,LI Dandan,HU Caili,LIU Jierui,LUO Congwen,WANG Kai. Environmental variations recorded by chemical element in the sediments of Lake Yamzhog Yumco on the southern Tibetan Plateau over the past 2000 years [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1345-1362.
[15]	WU Yijin,ZHAO Xingshuang,XI Yue,LIU Hui,LI Chang. Comprehensive evaluation and spatial-temporal changes of eco-environmental quality based on MODIS in Tibet during 2006-2016 [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74(7): 1438-1449.