Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (6): 965-979.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201506010
• Orginal Article • Previous Articles Next Articles
Shaojian WANG1,2,3(), Yang WANG4(
), Yabo ZHAO5
Received:
2014-09-18
Revised:
2015-02-13
Online:
2015-06-20
Published:
2015-06-20
Supported by:
Shaojian WANG, Yang WANG, Yabo ZHAO. Spatial spillover effects and multi-mechanism for regional development in Guangdong province since 1990s[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(6): 965-979.
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Tab. 1
Non-spatial Markov-chain transitional matrices for GDP per capita at county level, 1990-2010
n | P(≤57.4%) | L(57.5%~79.6%) | D(79.7%~103.7%) | R(≥103.8%) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1990-2010 | |||||
P | 428 | 0.943 | 0.057 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
L | 441 | 0.106 | 0.841 | 0.053 | 0.000 |
D | 433 | 0.000 | 0.082 | 0.881 | 0.037 |
R | 431 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.034 | 0.966 |
1990-2000 | |||||
P | 200 | 0.870 | 0.130 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
L | 281 | 0.084 | 0.855 | 0.061 | 0.000 |
D | 257 | 0.000 | 0.078 | 0.875 | 0.047 |
R | 251 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.032 | 0. 968 |
2001-2010 | |||||
P | 228 | 0.957 | 0.043 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
L | 160 | 0.124 | 0.826 | 0.050 | 0.000 |
D | 176 | 0.000 | 0.080 | 0.903 | 0.017 |
R | 180 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.017 | 0.983 |
Tab. 2
Spatial Markov-chain transition matrix for GDP per capita at county level in Guangdong, 1990-2010
1990-2000 | 2001-2010 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
n | P | L | D | R | n | P | L | D | R | ||
P | P | 58 | 0.928 | 0.072 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 176 | 0.976 | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
L | 20 | 0.180 | 0.785 | 0.035 | 0.000 | 27 | 0.176 | 0.769 | 0.055 | 0.000 | |
D | 12 | 0.000 | 0.083 | 0.917 | 0.000 | 34 | 0.000 | 0.056 | 0.871 | 0.073 | |
R | 5 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 | |
L | P | 82 | 0.842 | 0.158 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 33 | 0.944 | 0.056 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
L | 109 | 0.112 | 0.854 | 0.034 | 0.000 | 97 | 0.093 | 0.876 | 0.031 | 0.000 | |
D | 87 | 0.000 | 0.044 | 0.893 | 0.063 | 24 | 0.000 | 0.042 | 0.917 | 0.041 | |
R | 41 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.036 | 0.964 | 16 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.063 | 0.937 | |
D | P | 54 | 0.827 | 0.173 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 15 | 0.867 | 0.133 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
L | 137 | 0.053 | 0.891 | 0.056 | 0.000 | 30 | 0.099 | 0.866 | 0.005 | 0.000 | |
D | 90 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 0.867 | 0.033 | 107 | 0.000 | 0.103 | 0.889 | 0.018 | |
R | 52 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.044 | 0.956 | 37 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.027 | 0.973 | |
R | P | 6 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4 | 0.750 | 0.250 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
L | 15 | 0.067 | 0.863 | 0.067 | 0.000 | 6 | 0.167 | 0.833 | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
D | 68 | 0.000 | 0.051 | 0.915 | 0.034 | 11 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.909 | 0.091 | |
R | 153 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.007 | 0.993 | 121 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.992 |
Tab. 3
Results of overall regression analyses in 1996 and 2010
OLS 模型 | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1996 | 2010 | |||||||||
系数 | 标准差 | t/z值 | P值 (>|t|) | 系数 | 标准差 | t/z值 | P值(>|t|) | |||
(截距) | 3.453e-02 | 2.324e-02 | 1.235 | 5.914e-03 | 4.466e-02 | 1.609e-02 | 2.774 | 6.779e-03 | ||
全球化 | 6.654e-01 | 1.647e-01 | 1.546 | 4.016e-01 | 8.769e-01 | 1.243e-01 | 0.464 | 6.437e-01 | ||
市场化 | 4.145e-01 | 3.368e-01 | 2.683 | 1.402e-03 | 5.078e-01 | 2.494e-01 | 3.238 | 1.707e-03 | ||
简政放权 | 7.567e-01 | 1.643e-01 | 0.321 | 3.467e-01 | 4.080e-01 | 1.181e-01 | 0.679 | 4.987e-01 | ||
投资水平 | 4.473e-01 | 2.874e-01 | 4.124 | 1.576e-03 | 6.621e-01 | 2.167e-01 | 3.054 | 2.999e-03 | ||
城镇化 | 1.214e-01 | 3.871e-02 | 3.543 | 3.265e-04 | 1.508e-01 | 4.078e-02 | 3.697 | 3.829e-04 | ||
储蓄水平 | 2.231e-01 | 2.648e-01 | 3.678 | 1.863e-03 | 2.975e-01 | 2.083e-01 | 3.348 | 1.206e-03 | ||
1996——Adjusted R2:0.7416,F统计:41.5576,p值:2.53632e-11 2010——Adjusted R2:0.8216,F统计:53.4372,p值:3.76843e-12 | ||||||||||
空间残差模型 | ||||||||||
(截距) | 4.241e-02 | 1.647e-02 | 2.618 | 3.104e-03 | 4.387e-02 | 1.503e-02 | 2.917 | 3.525e-03 | ||
全球化 | 5.876e-02 | 1.206e-01 | 0.7065 | 6.471e-01 | 6.09e-02 | 1.192e-01 | 0.5038 | 0.6143794 | ||
市场化 | 7.286e-01 | 2.813e-01 | 3.904 | 5.023e-04 | 8.287e-01 | 2.377e-01 | 3.4856 | 0.0004911 | ||
简政放权 | 7.743e-01 | 2.173e-01 | 3.84213 | 5.275e-04 | 7.147e-01 | 2.076e-01 | 3.44286 | 0.0005757 | ||
投资水平 | 1.659e-01 | 1.123e-01 | 0.7963 | 4.874e-01 | 8.590e-02 | 1.108e-01 | 0.77512 | 0.4382686 | ||
城镇化 | 2.468e-01 | 4.002e-02 | 3.5742 | 1.926e-04 | 1.468e-01 | 3.908e-02 | 3.756601 | 0.0001723 | ||
储蓄水平 | -6.309e-01 | 1.694e-01 | -3.2618 | 2.214e-04 | -7.39e-01 | 1.969e-01 | -3.712067 | 0.0002056 | ||
1996——Lambda:0.7424532,拉格朗日乘数检验:18.372,p值:0.000763,似然估计:66.893746(残差模型),AIC:77.678 (OLS:89.781),拉格朗日乘数检验:5.5314,p值:0.0967 2010——Lambda:0.7722286,拉格朗日乘数检验:24.864,p值:0.0000456,似然估计:98.551733(残差模型),AIC:61.657 (OLS:86.564),拉格朗日乘数检验:7.1662,p值:0.1058 | ||||||||||
空间滞后模型 | ||||||||||
(截距) | 2.865e-02 | 2.513e-02 | 1.765 | 4.254e-02 | 3.269e-02 | 1.639e-02 | 1.994 | 4.614e-02 | ||
全球化 | 6.234e-02 | 1.781e-01 | 1.013 | 6.001e-01 | 7.582e-01 | 1.160e-01 | 0.648 | 5.160e-01 | ||
市场化 | 4.176e-01 | 2.456e-01 | 2.842 | 3.354e-02 | 5.640e-01 | 2.620e-01 | 2.154 | 3.100e-02 | ||
简政放权 | 4.982e-01 | 3.243e-01 | 2.687 | 2.902e-02 | 4.886e-01 | 2.120e-01 | 2.298 | 2.100e-02 | ||
投资水平 | 3.962e-01 | 1.675e-01 | 1.021 | 3.321e-01 | 4.903e-01 | 1.110e-01 | 0.803 | 4.210e-01 | ||
城镇化 | 1.302e-01 | 3.167e-02 | 2.242 | 1.345e-04 | 1.470e-01 | 3.800e-02 | 3.812 | 1.377e-04 | ||
储蓄水平 | 3.331e-01 | 1.536e-01 | 3.146 | 2.123e-04 | 3.230e-01 | 1.970e-01 | 3.659 | 2.542e-04 | ||
1996——Rho:0.6248,拉格朗日乘数检验:33.679,p值:0.000831,似然估计:89.2768(空间滞后模型),AICs:62.431(OLS:89.781),拉格朗日乘数检验:28.799,p值:0.000001564 2010——Rho:0.5436, 拉格朗日乘数检验:35.672,p值:0.0001450,似然估计:100.534(空间滞后模型),AICs:56.468(OLS:86.564),拉格朗日乘数检验:31.644,p值:0.0003241 |
Tab. 4
Results of non-stationary test of GWR model in 1996 and 2010
GWR模型的非平稳性检测, 1996 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
截距 | 全球化 | 市场化 | 简政放权 | 投资水平 | 城镇化 | 储蓄水平 | |
F统计 | 12.647 | 1.534 | 3.453 | 1.504 | 0.789 | 0.942 | 1.897 |
分子自由度 | 16.532 | 12.785 | 15.864 | 20.547 | 11.632 | 16.275 | 24.675 |
分母自由度 | 66.091 | 66.091 | 66.091 | 66.091 | 66.091 | 66.091 | 66.091 |
p值 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.153 | 0.435 | 0.546 |
GWR模型的非平稳性检测, 2010 | |||||||
F统计 | 25.324 | 2.628 | 1.986 | 2.593 | 3.024 | 4.165 | 0.541 |
分子自由度 | 22.578 | 9.583 | 5.585 | 9.041 | 7.645 | 5.465 | 18.927 |
分母自由度 | 58.234 | 58.234 | 58.234 | 58.234 | 58.234 | 58.234 | 58.234 |
p值 | 0.000 | 0.005 | 0.100 | 0.261 | 0.104 | 0.542 | 0.741 |
Tab. 5
Results of estimation of GWR model in 1996 and 2010
非平稳性模型 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1996 | 2010 | ||||||||
系数 | 标准差 | t/z值 | P值 (>|t|) | 系数 | 标准差 | t/z值 | P值(>|t|) | ||
全球化 | 0.0053217 | 0.0107864 | 0.886 | 0.0345 | 0.007435 | 0.2068423 | 0.569 | 0.741 | |
市场化 | 0.0013004 | 0.0005876 | 2.378 | 0.0146 | 0.003142 | 0.0009826 | 1.133 | 0.258 | |
简政放权 | 0.0051657 | 0.0041095 | 4.322 | 0.0237 | 0.005634 | 0.0167452 | 1.254 | 0.692 | |
投资水平 | 0.0039412 | 0.0008543 | 3.578 | 0.0201 | 0.004297 | 0.0006754 | 0.679 | 0.347 | |
城镇化 | 0.0014864 | 0.0002876 | 5.629 | 0.5346 | 0.002657 | 0.0002384 | 0.924 | 0.189 | |
储蓄水平 | 0.0027542 | 0.0005233 | 4.714 | 0.8265 | 0.002988 | 0.0001678 | 0.832 | 0.326 | |
1996—GWR 模型AICs:54.253 (空间滞后模型:62.431,OLS模型:89.781) | |||||||||
2010—GWR 模型AICs:24.472 (空间滞后模型:56.468,OLS模型:86.564) |
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