山西降水与ENSO的相关性研究

doi:10.11821/dlxb201503006

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the monthly rainfall data, the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the monthly Pacific SST (Sea Surface Temperature) of NOAA (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) at 38 meteorological stations in Shanxi, trend analysis and correlation analysis methods were used to analyze the response of the seasonal rainfall during recent 56 years to ENSO events in this province. The results are shown as follows: (1) In La Nina years, the annual, autumn and winter rainfall had increasing trends, while the spring and summer rainfall decreased. In El Nino years, the spring rainfall had increasing trends, but the annual, summer, autumn and winter rainfall decreased. In the year after a La Nina event, the winter rainfall would increase, but the annual, spring, summer and autumn rainfall decreased. (2) The annual rainfall showed that there was a positive correlation between Pacific SST of the previous year in Nino 3 and 4 regions and annual rainfall in Shanxi. If Pacific SST of the previous year was higher (or lower), the rainfall in Shanxi would be correspondingly more (or less) than that in a normal year. The annual rainfall was negatively correlated to Pacific SST of the same year in Nino 3 region. If Pacific SST of a year is higher (or lower), the annual rainfall in Shanxi would be less (or more) than that in a normal year. (3) SOI was significantly and negatively correlated to the rainfall trend index of most parts of Shanxi province. The correlation coefficients in some parts of the central-western and eastern-northern Shanx were over -0.5, and the monthly rainfall of these areas would be less (or more) if SOI was positive (or negative).

Key words: rainfall, ENSO, SST, SOI, correlation analysis, Shanxi

Fen LI, Jianxin ZHANG, Zhiwen HAO, Yongli WU, Jinhong ZHOU. Correlation analysis of rainfall and ENSO in Shanxi[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(3): 420-430.

Figures/Tables 11

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	起止年月	长度	SSTA	峰值	∑SSTA	海温	等级	SOI	峰值	∑SOI	海气	等级	最强季节
暖事件	1957.4-1958.4	13	1.2	1	10.7	中等	2	-1.5	1	-4.4	弱	2	冬季
	1963.7-1963.12	6	0.6	8	3.5	极弱	1	-1.3	10	-4.0	极弱	1	夏季
	1965.6-1966.2	9	1.2	12	8.3	中等	2	-2.1	7	-8.5	中等	2	冬季
	1968.11-1970.1	15	0.9	5	9.8	中等	2	-1.2	1	-5.2	弱	1	春季
	1972.4-1973.2	11	1.8	12	13.1	中等	2	-2.0	5	-9.8	中等	2	冬季
	1982.5-1983.8	16	2.3	12	22.3	极强	3	-2.8	1	-22.6	极强	3	冬季
	1986.9-1988.1	17	1.4	9	17.2	强	3	-1.7	5	-14.1	强	3	秋季
	1991.5-1992.6	14	1.3	4	12.1	中等	2	-2.3	1	-13.6	中等	2	春季
	1994.10-1995.2	5	1.0	12	4.2	极弱	1	-1.3	10	-3.2	极弱	1	冬季
	1997.4-1998.5	14	2.6	12	24.7	极强	3	-2.2	1	-19.5	极强	3	冬季
	2002.5-2003.2	10	1.4	11	8.0	弱	1	-1.3	5	-6.7	弱	1	秋季
	2006.8-2007.1	6	1.1	12	5.2	弱	1	-1.4	8	-3.9	弱	1	冬季
	2009.6-2010.4	11	1.3	12	9.2	中等	2	-1.3	1	-3.3	中等	2	冬季
冷事件	1962.9-1963.2	6	-0.7	12	-3.5	极弱	-1	1.0	10	3.3	极弱	-1	冬季
	1964.3-1965.1	11	-1.2	12	-9.8	弱	-1	1.5	8	7.4	弱	-1	冬季
	1967.8-1968.5	10	-0.8	2	-6.5	弱	-1	1.3	5	3.0	极弱	-1	冬季
	1970.6-1972.1	20	-1.5	12	-18.5	强	-3	1.9	3	1.8	强	-3	冬季
	1973.5-1974.5	13	-1.6	1	-13.5	中等	-2	2.7	11	17.7	中等	-2	冬季
	1974.9-1976.3	19	-1.7	12	-18.0	中等	-2	2.1	9	21.0	强	-3	冬季
	1984.10-1985.10	13	-1.1	12	-9.7	弱	-1	1.1	4	1.0	弱	-1	冬季
	1988.4-1989.6	15	-1.7	12	-17.2	中等	-2	1.9	11	16.8	中等	-2	冬季
	1995.9-1996.5	9	-0.7	11	-5.2	极弱	-1	0.8	1	2.5	极弱	-1	秋季
	1998.9-2000.7	23	-1.4	1	-20.3	强	-3	1.5	4	17.1	强	-3	冬季
	2007.5-2008.4	12	-1.6	11	-11.7	中等	-2	2	2	6.5	中等	-2	秋季
	2010.5-2011.5	12	-1.7	9	-14.5	中等	-2	2.5	12	22.9	中等	-2	秋季
	2011.9-2012.3	7	-1.0	12	-4.8	极弱	-1	2.1	12	7.3	极弱	-1	冬季

Correlation analysis of rainfall and ENSO in Shanxi

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