Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2015, Vol. 70 ›› Issue (3): 420-430.doi: 10.11821/dlxb201503006

• Orginal Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Correlation analysis of rainfall and ENSO in Shanxi

Fen LI1(), Jianxin ZHANG2, Zhiwen HAO3, Yongli WU4, Jinhong ZHOU5   

  1. 1. Shanxi Meteorological Service Center, Taiyuan 030002, China
    2. Shanxi Meteorological Service Center for Decision-making, Taiyuan 030006, China
    3. Shanxi Province Meteorological Science Research Institute, Taiyuan 030002, China
    4. Shanxi Climate Center, Taiyuan 030006, China
    5. Taiyuan Meteorological Bureau, Taiyuan 030002, China
  • Received:2014-10-30 Revised:2015-01-27 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20
  • Supported by:
    Shanxi Meteorological Scientific Research Project, No.SXKYBQH20147828;Natural Science Fund of Shanxi Province, No.2013011038-2;Shanxi Science and Technology Key Project, No.20130312012


Based on the monthly rainfall data, the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the monthly Pacific SST (Sea Surface Temperature) of NOAA (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) at 38 meteorological stations in Shanxi, trend analysis and correlation analysis methods were used to analyze the response of the seasonal rainfall during recent 56 years to ENSO events in this province. The results are shown as follows: (1) In La Nina years, the annual, autumn and winter rainfall had increasing trends, while the spring and summer rainfall decreased. In El Nino years, the spring rainfall had increasing trends, but the annual, summer, autumn and winter rainfall decreased. In the year after a La Nina event, the winter rainfall would increase, but the annual, spring, summer and autumn rainfall decreased. (2) The annual rainfall showed that there was a positive correlation between Pacific SST of the previous year in Nino 3 and 4 regions and annual rainfall in Shanxi. If Pacific SST of the previous year was higher (or lower), the rainfall in Shanxi would be correspondingly more (or less) than that in a normal year. The annual rainfall was negatively correlated to Pacific SST of the same year in Nino 3 region. If Pacific SST of a year is higher (or lower), the annual rainfall in Shanxi would be less (or more) than that in a normal year. (3) SOI was significantly and negatively correlated to the rainfall trend index of most parts of Shanxi province. The correlation coefficients in some parts of the central-western and eastern-northern Shanx were over -0.5, and the monthly rainfall of these areas would be less (or more) if SOI was positive (or negative).

Key words: rainfall, ENSO, SST, SOI, correlation analysis, Shanxi