Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2000, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (s1): 163-168.doi: 10.11821/xb2000S1024

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Predicting Model for Direct Economic Losses Caused by- Climate Abnormality

WANG Shou-rong1, YANG Xin1, DA Qing-li2, HAN Yong 2   

  1. 1. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081;
    2. Institute of Economic Management, Southeast University, Nanjing 210024
  • Received:2000-07-03 Revised:2000-09-18 Online:2000-12-15 Published:2000-12-15
  • Supported by:
    The key Research Project of National Ninth Five-Year Plan, No.96-908-03-04

Abstract: In order to enhance the pre- assessment of disaster reduction, a statistic predicting model is developed for simulating direct economic losses caused by climate abnormality. The model consists of time sequential term T(t), climate abnormality impact term P (t) and random variation term S (t). After parameter adjustment with statistic data, the model is run for the economic simulation losses from 1989 to 1999. The simulated results are quite consistent with the observed ones (R2: 0. 9847, F: 150.45). The economic losses in 2000 are predicted by. using the model with different SAAO/ GDPPI. In terms of the prediction results. the economic losses in 2000 will be higher than the ones in 1999. If the investment ratio of agriculture and disaster reduction, SAAO/ GDPPI, increases, the economic losses caused by climate abnormality would decrease by a wide. margin.

Key words: climate abnormality, direct economic losses, predicting model, cost-benefit analysis

CLC Number: 

  • P429