Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2011, Vol. 66 ›› Issue (2): 267-278.doi: 10.11821/xb201102012

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Bias Analysis and Reliability and Validity Test in Contingent Valuation Method:A Case Study of Assessment of Jiuzhaigou's Recreational Value

DONG Xuewang1, ZHANG Jie1, LIU Chuanhua2, LI Min1, ZHONG Shi'en1   

  1. 1. Department of Land Resources and Tourism Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;
    2. Institute of Agricultural Information, Zhejiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Hangzhou 310021, China
  • Received:2010-02-21 Revised:2010-09-23 Online:2011-02-20 Published:2011-02-20
  • Supported by:

    British Academy, No.SG-47266; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.40371030

Abstract: Contingent valuation method (CVM) is a valuation instrument for public goods on the basis of simulated market. However, its hypothesis arouses suspicions and controversies on its reliability and validity among academics. Combined with the literature review, this paper employs CVM to assess the recreational value of Jiuzhaigou and analyzes the biases in the survey. And finally, we conduct tests on test-retest reliability, content validity and convergent validity. It is found that (1) the recreational values of Jiuzhaigou in 2008 and 2009 are 333 million RMB yuan and 346 million RMB yuan respectively. Compared with other valuation results, these values are significantly lower; (2) the biases in CVM lie both in CVM itself and in the procedures where CVM is carried out. The former problems include hypothetical bias, information bias, protest response bias and strategic bias. The latter ones refer to questionnaire design, definition of population and samples, sampling methodology, and statistical analysis process; (3) the test on test-retest reliability indicates that this study is of high reliability; i.e. the valuation results are of high stability and repeatability; but the tests on content validity and convergent validity suggest low validity of the results and the fact that CVM tends to underestimate the value of tourist resources; (4) the development of CVM should shift gradually from case studies to validity and reliability tests. Thus, we have to establish and perfect the CVM implementation rules, which are suitable for developing countries to ensure validity and reliability of the valuation results.

Key words: contingent valuation method (CVM), value of the tourist resources, bias, reliability, validity, Jiuzhaigou