Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (9): 1934-1947.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202009009
• Climate and Ecological Environment • Previous Articles Next Articles
ZHOU Kan1(), LI Hui2, SHEN Yuming2(
)
Received:
2019-09-06
Revised:
2020-03-23
Online:
2020-09-25
Published:
2020-11-25
Contact:
SHEN Yuming
E-mail:zhoukan2008@126.com;shenyuming@263.net
Supported by:
ZHOU Kan, LI Hui, SHEN Yuming. Spatiotemporal patterns and driving factors of environmental stress in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: A county-level analysis[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(9): 1934-1947.
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Tab. 1
Emission intensity and ESI in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2012 and 2016
地区 | 2012年 | 2016年 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
化学需 氧量(t) | 氨氮(t) | 二氧 化硫(t) | 氮氧 化物(t) | 环境胁 迫指数 | 化学需 氧量(t) | 氨氮(t) | 二氧 化硫(t) | 氮氧 化物(t) | 环境胁 迫指数 | |
北京市 | 16954.62 | 1862.13 | 8531.76 | 8876.63 | 0.10 | 7917.70 | 506.92 | 3019.09 | 3191.49 | 0.04 |
天津市 | 32776.27 | 3630.82 | 32074.49 | 40024.72 | 0.28 | 14753.91 | 2235.31 | 10087.73 | 13820.09 | 0.12 |
河北省 | 9933.54 | 814.72 | 9871.90 | 8921.88 | 0.07 | 3023.46 | 451.93 | 5804.73 | 4786.54 | 0.03 |
京津冀地区 | 11473.35 | 1017.54 | 10785.39 | 10332.41 | 0.08 | 3906.25 | 536.92 | 5800.44 | 5083.22 | 0.04 |
Tab. 2
Moran's I of ESI and major pollutants in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
项目 | 2012年 | 2016年 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moran's I | z值 | p值 | Moran's I | z值 | p值 | |
化学需氧量排放量 | 0.1666 | 3.6114 | 0.0003 | 0.1309 | 2.9777 | 0.0029 |
氨氮排放量 | 0.1592 | 3.6328 | 0.0003 | 0.1933 | 4.4142 | 0.0000 |
二氧化硫排放量 | 0.2186 | 4.8671 | 0.0000 | 0.1865 | 4.1760 | 0.0000 |
氮氧化物排放量 | 0.1847 | 4.0896 | 0.0000 | 0.2720 | 5.9211 | 0.0000 |
环境胁迫指数 | 0.2014 | 4.3945 | 0.0000 | 0.2325 | 5.0628 | 0.0000 |
Tab. 3
Estimation results of OLS Model in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
变量 | 2012年 | 2016年 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
系数 | 标准差 | T统计量 | p值 | VIF | 系数 | 标准差 | T统计量 | p值 | VIF | |
截距 | -0.1521** | 0.0200 | -7.5971 | 0.0000 | — | -0.1939** | 0.0232 | -8.3752 | 0.0000 | — |
TP | 0.8183** | 0.0691 | 11.8378 | 0.0000 | 1.9735 | 0.6341** | 0.0764 | 8.2948 | 0.0000 | 2.0188 |
PGDP | 0.7390** | 0.0684 | 10.8029 | 0.0000 | 1.4166 | 0.6220** | 0.0764 | 8.1423 | 0.0000 | 1.3983 |
IS | 0.0413 | 0.0277 | 1.4900 | 0.1062 | 1.1709 | 0.0763* | 0.0324 | 2.3520 | 0.0034 | 1.2015 |
TDI | -0.1650** | 0.0498 | -3.3139 | 0.0044 | 2.4017 | -0.1347** | 0.0543 | -2.4799 | 0.0131 | 2.3414 |
ETT | 0.3260** | 0.0351 | 9.2818 | 0.0000 | 1.0524 | 0.3028** | 0.0319 | 9.4878 | 0.0000 | 1.0906 |
UR | 0.2135** | 0.0346 | 6.1780 | 0.0001 | 2.0578 | 0.2630** | 0.0378 | 6.9495 | 0.0001 | 2.0217 |
IAP | 0.2802** | 0.0326 | 8.5851 | 0.0002 | 1.0872 | 0.2515** | 0.0349 | 7.1992 | 0.0007 | 1.1159 |
模型 诊断 | 卡方 统计量 | 校正R2 | AIC | Koenker (BP)检验 | Jarque- Bera检验 | 卡方 统计量 | 校正R2 | AIC | Koenker (BP)检验 | Jarque- Bera检验 |
1277.1215 | 0.8469 | -411.5215 | 33.50139** | 3816.7202** | 996.9724 | 0.7847 | -376.3448 | 31.2104** | 3411.6170** |
Tab. 4
Estimation results of GWR Model in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
变量 | 2012年 | 2016年 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
最小值 | 最大值 | 平均值 | 上四 分位数 | 中位数 | 下四 分位数 | 最小值 | 最大值 | 平均值 | 上四 分位数 | 中位数 | 下四 分位数 | ||
截距 | -0.407 | -0.035 | -0.137 | -0.170 | -0.094 | -0.073 | -0.399 | -0.084 | -0.169 | -0.197 | -0.146 | -0.122 | |
TP | 0.658 | 2.896 | 1.307 | 0.798 | 1.083 | 1.655 | 0.420 | 2.985 | 1.055 | 0.571 | 0.867 | 1.306 | |
PGDP | -1.277 | 2.071 | 0.973 | 0.704 | 0.749 | 1.540 | 0.020 | 3.405 | 0.868 | 0.554 | 0.607 | 0.936 | |
IS | -0.052 | 0.244 | 0.032 | -0.020 | 0.007 | 0.060 | -0.040 | 0.345 | 0.071 | 0.026 | 0.047 | 0.094 | |
TDI | -1.110 | 0.052 | -0.145 | -0.144 | -0.095 | -0.058 | -0.377 | 0.088 | -0.074 | -0.107 | -0.062 | -0.022 | |
ETT | 0.150 | 0.621 | 0.327 | 0.210 | 0.293 | 0.429 | 0.171 | 0.486 | 0.275 | 0.227 | 0.252 | 0.302 | |
UR | -0.004 | 0.459 | 0.136 | 0.076 | 0.097 | 0.165 | 0.004 | 0.352 | 0.157 | 0.110 | 0.144 | 0.197 | |
IAP | -0.165 | 0.918 | 0.202 | 0.014 | 0.161 | 0.395 | -0.119 | 0.544 | 0.182 | 0.028 | 0.161 | 0.301 | |
模型 诊断 | 带宽 | 校正R2 | AICc | 带宽 | 校正R2 | AICc | |||||||
99877.656 | 0.948 | -527.574 | 105540.116 | 0.900 | -454.605 |
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