基于结构方程模型的中国县域人口老龄化影响机制

doi:10.11821/dlxb202008002

Abstract

Abstract:

Since the 1970s, great progress has been made in research on the spatio-temporal pattern of population ageing at multiple spatial scales by both domestic and foreign scholars. However, the analysis of the process mechanism of regional ageing is still insufficient. Based on the county-scale data in 2000 and 2010 censuses, the spatio-temporal pattern of population ageing is statistically analyzed. Moreover, the Structural Equation Model (or SEM) is developed to explore the path relationship between various variables. Consequently, the influencing mechanism of regional ageing process is thoroughly revealed. The main results are as follows. Firstly, the line from Baotou City of Inner Mongolia autonomous region to Tengchong County of Yunnan province (or BT Line) is a geographical demarcation of regional ageing disparities in China. Southeast of the BT Line witnesses contiguous areas of higher ageing counties which interspersed with lower ageing counties, whereas northwest of the BT Line is a continuous area of lower ageing counties with just one middle-level ageing belt located in the north margin. Secondly, the fitting results of SEM interpret the influencing mechanism of regional ageing disparities in China. Thirdly, life expectancy, fertility and migration are three endogenous factors of regional ageing process. Thereinto, life expectancy has significantly positive effect, while fertility and migration have significantly negative effects on regional ageing. Lastly, geographical environment has significant direct and indirect effects on regional ageing in China. In general, the income increase, social progress, and the improvement of living conditions and natural environmental quality would enhance regional ageing level, otherwise the improvement of urbanization level would decrease regional ageing level.

Key words: population ageing, influencing mechanism, Structural Equation Model (SEM), path analysis, counties in China

AO Rongjun, CHANG Liang. Influencing mechanism of regional ageing in China based on the Structural Equation Model[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.

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指标	2000年		2010年
指标	包腾线以西	包腾线以东	包腾线以西	包腾线以东
老龄化率7%及以上县区数(个)	0	1032	96	1797
老龄化率11%及以上县区数(个)	0	27	1	350
国土面积占比(%)	48.30	51.70	48.30	51.70
老年人口数量占比(%)	2.92	97.08	3.55	96.45
老年人口集中度	0.06	1.88	0.07	1.87

指标	统计量	适配标准或临界值	包腾线东部模型	包腾线西部模型
绝对适配度指数	卡方值(CMIN)	P > 0.05,越小越好	2.423(P = 0.120)	2.576(P = 0.108)
	卡方/自由度(CMIN/DF)	0~3	2.423	2.576
	近似误差均方根(RMSEA)	< 0.05,越小越好	0.019	0.049
	拟合优度指数(GFI)	> 0.90,越接近于1	1.000	0.999
	调整的拟合优度指数(AGFI)	> 0.90,越接近于1	0.992	0.956
增值适配度指数	规范拟合指数(NFI)	> 0.90,越接近于1	1.000	0.999
	增值指数(IFI)	> 0.90,越接近于1	1.000	0.999
	不规范拟合指数(TLI)	> 0.90,越接近于1	0.995	0.964

影响因素	效应	生育率	预期寿命	净迁移率	老龄化率
生育率	总体	-	-	-	-0.302^*
预期寿命	总体	-	-	-	0.371^*
迁移率	总体	-	-	-	-0.616^*
人均收入水平	总体	0.062^*	0.147^*	0.157^*	0.022^*
	直接	0.062^*	0.147^*	0.157^*	0.083^*
	间接	-	-	-	-0.061^*
城镇化水平	总体	-0.375^*	0.146^*	0.404^*	-0.137^*
	直接	-0.375^*	0.146^*	0.404^*	-0.056^*
	间接	-	-	-	-0.081^*
医疗卫生条件	总体	-0.083^*	-0.009	-0.150^*	0.136
	直接	-0.083^*	-0.009	-0.150^*	0.022
	间接	-	-	-	0.114
人口受教育程度	总体	-0.194^*	0.216^*	0.204^*	0.051^**
	直接	-0.194^*	0.216^*	0.204^*	0.038^**
	间接	-	-	-	0.013^**
人口民族结构	总体	0.096^*	-0.159^*	-0.044^**	-0.024^*
	直接	0.096^*	-0.159^*	-0.044^**	0.037^*
	间接	-	-	-	-0.060^*
居民家庭结构	总体	-0.012	-0.010	0.094^*	-0.065
	直接	-0.012	-0.010	0.094^*	-0.007
	间接	-	-	-	-0.058
家庭居住条件	总体	-0.015	0.248^*	-0.288^*	0.536^*
	直接	-0.015	0.248^*	-0.288^*	0.262^*
	间接	-	-	-	0.274^*
地形起伏度	总体	0.204^*	-0.241^*	0.037^**	-0.074^*
	直接	0.204^*	-0.241^*	0.037^**	0.100^*
	间接	-	-	-	-0.174^*
温热指数	总体	-0.063^*	0.289^*	-0.082^*	-0.014^*
	直接	-0.063^*	0.289^*	-0.082^*	-0.191^*
	间接	-	-	-	0.177^*

影响因素	效应	生育率	预期寿命	净迁移率	老龄化率
生育率	总体	-	-	-	0.114^**
预期寿命	总体	-	-	-	0.440^*
迁移率	总体	-	-	-	0.027
人均收入水平	总体	0.004	0.192^*	0.027	-0.010^**
	直接	0.004	0.192^*	0.027	-0.096^**
	间接	-	-	-	0.086^**
城镇化水平	总体	-0.485^*	0.217^*	0.003	-0.052
	直接	-0.485^*	0.217^*	0.003	-0.092
	间接	-	-	-	0.040
医疗卫生条件	总体	-0.001	0.057	0.085	0.005
	直接	-0.001	0.057	0.085	-0.022
	间接	-	-	-	0.027
居民家庭结构	总体	0.103^**	-0.014	0.116^**	-0.063
	直接	0.103^**	-0.014	0.116^**	-0.071
	间接	-	-	-	0.009
家庭居住条件	总体	-0.178^*	0.306^*	0.016	0.361^*
	直接	-0.178^*	0.306^*	0.016	0.246^*
	间接	-	-	-	0.115^*
温热指数	总体	-0.298^*	-0.156^*	-0.032	-0.045
	直接	-0.298^*	-0.156^*	-0.032	0.059
	间接	-	-	-	-0.104

Influencing mechanism of regional ageing in China based on the Structural Equation Model

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