Acta Geographica Sinica ›› 2020, Vol. 75 ›› Issue (8): 1572-1584.doi: 10.11821/dlxb202008002
• Population and Urban Studies • Previous Articles Next Articles
AO Rongjun1,2(), CHANG Liang1,2
Received:
2019-02-03
Revised:
2020-05-24
Online:
2020-08-25
Published:
2020-10-25
Supported by:
AO Rongjun, CHANG Liang. Influencing mechanism of regional ageing in China based on the Structural Equation Model[J].Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(8): 1572-1584.
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Tab. 1
Comparison of concentration of the elderly population on both sides of Baotou-Tengchong Line in China"
指标 | 2000年 | 2010年 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
包腾线以西 | 包腾线以东 | 包腾线以西 | 包腾线以东 | ||
老龄化率7%及以上县区数(个) | 0 | 1032 | 96 | 1797 | |
老龄化率11%及以上县区数(个) | 0 | 27 | 1 | 350 | |
国土面积占比(%) | 48.30 | 51.70 | 48.30 | 51.70 | |
老年人口数量占比(%) | 2.92 | 97.08 | 3.55 | 96.45 | |
老年人口集中度 | 0.06 | 1.88 | 0.07 | 1.87 |
Tab. 2
Goodness-of-fit-test for the SEM"
指标 | 统计量 | 适配标准或临界值 | 包腾线东部模型 | 包腾线西部模型 |
---|---|---|---|---|
绝对适配度 指数 | 卡方值(CMIN) | P > 0.05,越小越好 | 2.423(P = 0.120) | 2.576(P = 0.108) |
卡方/自由度(CMIN/DF) | 0~3 | 2.423 | 2.576 | |
近似误差均方根(RMSEA) | < 0.05,越小越好 | 0.019 | 0.049 | |
拟合优度指数(GFI) | > 0.90,越接近于1 | 1.000 | 0.999 | |
调整的拟合优度指数(AGFI) | > 0.90,越接近于1 | 0.992 | 0.956 | |
增值适配度 指数 | 规范拟合指数(NFI) | > 0.90,越接近于1 | 1.000 | 0.999 |
增值指数(IFI) | > 0.90,越接近于1 | 1.000 | 0.999 | |
不规范拟合指数(TLI) | > 0.90,越接近于1 | 0.995 | 0.964 |
Tab. 3
Direct, indirect and total effects of influencing factors on regional ageing (Local model of east of B-T Line)"
影响因素 | 效应 | 生育率 | 预期寿命 | 净迁移率 | 老龄化率 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
生育率 | 总体 | - | - | - | -0.302* |
预期寿命 | 总体 | - | - | - | 0.371* |
迁移率 | 总体 | - | - | - | -0.616* |
人均收入水平 | 总体 | 0.062* | 0.147* | 0.157* | 0.022* |
直接 | 0.062* | 0.147* | 0.157* | 0.083* | |
间接 | - | - | - | -0.061* | |
城镇化水平 | 总体 | -0.375* | 0.146* | 0.404* | -0.137* |
直接 | -0.375* | 0.146* | 0.404* | -0.056* | |
间接 | - | - | - | -0.081* | |
医疗卫生条件 | 总体 | -0.083* | -0.009 | -0.150* | 0.136 |
直接 | -0.083* | -0.009 | -0.150* | 0.022 | |
间接 | - | - | - | 0.114 | |
人口受教育程度 | 总体 | -0.194* | 0.216* | 0.204* | 0.051** |
直接 | -0.194* | 0.216* | 0.204* | 0.038** | |
间接 | - | - | - | 0.013** | |
人口民族结构 | 总体 | 0.096* | -0.159* | -0.044** | -0.024* |
直接 | 0.096* | -0.159* | -0.044** | 0.037* | |
间接 | - | - | - | -0.060* | |
居民家庭结构 | 总体 | -0.012 | -0.010 | 0.094* | -0.065 |
直接 | -0.012 | -0.010 | 0.094* | -0.007 | |
间接 | - | - | - | -0.058 | |
家庭居住条件 | 总体 | -0.015 | 0.248* | -0.288* | 0.536* |
直接 | -0.015 | 0.248* | -0.288* | 0.262* | |
间接 | - | - | - | 0.274* | |
地形起伏度 | 总体 | 0.204* | -0.241* | 0.037** | -0.074* |
直接 | 0.204* | -0.241* | 0.037** | 0.100* | |
间接 | - | - | - | -0.174* | |
温热指数 | 总体 | -0.063* | 0.289* | -0.082* | -0.014* |
直接 | -0.063* | 0.289* | -0.082* | -0.191* | |
间接 | - | - | - | 0.177* |
Tab. 4
Direct, indirect and total effects of influencing factors on regional ageing (Local model of west of B-T Line)"
影响因素 | 效应 | 生育率 | 预期寿命 | 净迁移率 | 老龄化率 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
生育率 | 总体 | - | - | - | 0.114** |
预期寿命 | 总体 | - | - | - | 0.440* |
迁移率 | 总体 | - | - | - | 0.027 |
人均收入水平 | 总体 | 0.004 | 0.192* | 0.027 | -0.010** |
直接 | 0.004 | 0.192* | 0.027 | -0.096** | |
间接 | - | - | - | 0.086** | |
城镇化水平 | 总体 | -0.485* | 0.217* | 0.003 | -0.052 |
直接 | -0.485* | 0.217* | 0.003 | -0.092 | |
间接 | - | - | - | 0.040 | |
医疗卫生条件 | 总体 | -0.001 | 0.057 | 0.085 | 0.005 |
直接 | -0.001 | 0.057 | 0.085 | -0.022 | |
间接 | - | - | - | 0.027 | |
居民家庭结构 | 总体 | 0.103** | -0.014 | 0.116** | -0.063 |
直接 | 0.103** | -0.014 | 0.116** | -0.071 | |
间接 | - | - | - | 0.009 | |
家庭居住条件 | 总体 | -0.178* | 0.306* | 0.016 | 0.361* |
直接 | -0.178* | 0.306* | 0.016 | 0.246* | |
间接 | - | - | - | 0.115* | |
温热指数 | 总体 | -0.298* | -0.156* | -0.032 | -0.045 |
直接 | -0.298* | -0.156* | -0.032 | 0.059 | |
间接 | - | - | - | -0.104 |
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